February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:24 pm Wouldn't it be funny, if, after all this, it was the Thursday system that finally gave us the convective banding of snow we all hoped for on Sunday night?
You took the words out of my mouth.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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tsb2107 wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:13 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:04 pm 0z HRRR brings heavy ice to MoCo and NW Harris.

THEN. .... snow Thursday morning thru lunch including Harris proper

Temps won’t warm much at all if that precip verifies
Can you post model?
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txsnowmaker
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don wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:22 pm Yep Ive noticed also models are coming in more potent with Thursdays system,maybe another decent round of snow?Good news is since this system is coming with the upper level trough the setup looks like it could be maybe an all snow event,as the 540 line is much further to the south.
How much snow is that showing for Harris County?
Stormlover2020
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Dadgum nam runs shows a lot of ice
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jasons2k
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Razor close. A few miles there will make a difference.
txsnowmaker
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Stormlover2020 wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:44 pm Dadgum nam runs shows a lot of ice
For who?
869MB
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The latest HRRR run highlights the uncertainty with respect to the rain/freezing rain line across the region with the W/NW half of Harris County receiving freezing rain while the E/SE half of the county receives rain. Unfortunately, all of the latest mesoscale models depict some type of freezing rain/sleet near or over the Metro area at this time.
hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_10.png
vci_guy2003
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:24 pm Wouldn't it be funny, if, after all this, it was the Thursday system that finally gave us the convective banding of snow we all hoped for on Sunday night?
I wouldn’t be surprised.
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jasons2k
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Temp here has risen just a tick. Like I said, it's gonna be close.
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jasons2k
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One of the few times I am grateful to be in a "donut" of activity...
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