February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[davidiowx]

Dont like the trend of some of the latest mesoscale models there coming in further off shore with the low, and have temps taking longer to get above freezing. And also showing an earlier onset of precipitation.There could end up being a pretty decent ice storm along and north of I-10 especially.

Sheesh that is ugly. I hope that doesn’t come to fruition.

[Cromagnum]

Well, despite best efforts to shield my lemon tree and satsuma tree and put an incandescent bulb under the wrapping to heat them, this power outage likely killed them. Similar story for my bottlebrush shrubs in the front and my water softener system that is in my backyard. Covered it up, but can't heat it. Thanks a lot ERCOT...

[Cromagnum]

Nice to see the Houston skyline lit up like a Christmas tree while everyone else is shivering.

https://www.facebook.com/abc13Houston/p ... 197289342/

[megsy]

Deep in the bourbon too.

How is everyone doing?

Feeling guilty for having power and helpless to anyone who doesn’t.

[Weatherwatcher1]

I wish we had electricity. Been without since 2:45 am Sunday night. No water either here in far Katy/Fulshear

[weatherguy425]

Winds have relaxed from north, to south, over the past couple hours. KIAH 5-MIN observations have reported a few 12° readings (these, technically, aren't official). May be able to squeeze out a 10° or so before cooling ends.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Bitter cold arctic air mass in place over the region

Freezing rain likely north of US 59 tonight into early Wednesday with accumulations of ice

Travel conditions will deteriorate this evening into Wednesday morning

Winter Storm Warning in effect from 600pm this evening along and north of US 59

Discussion:

Very cold arctic air mass in place over the region with temperatures in the low to mid 10’s. Next upper level storm system will quickly approach from the west today with rapidly increasing clouds as a coastal low begins to form over the middle TX coast. Moisture will once again be forced northward into the cold air mass and this will result in freezing rain likely for areas north of the freezing line. Expect the freezing line to extend from Matagorda Bay to Downtown Houston to Winnie tonight and then slowly move northward on Wednesday. Where exactly the freezing line will be during various time periods in uncertain and precipitation types will be changeable throughout this event. Expect ice accumulations tonight along and north of US 59 of .05 to .15 of an inch…with most significant impacts on bridges and overpasses, but cannot rule out impacts to trees and power lines…especially for those areas that get closer to the .10-.15 amounts.

As the freezing lines move north on Wednesday during the day…likely reaching a Columbus to The Woodlands to Liberty line, freezing rain will likely change to rain for the metro area. Areas along and north of HWY 105 may remain below freezing for the entire event and expect significant and potentially extremely damaging ice accumulations of ¼ to ¾ of an inch.

Freezing line moves back southward Wednesday evening and much of the area, except for the coastal counties will likely fall back below freezing. Yet another disturbance will approach and could produce a final round of light sleet or snow over portions of the area Wednesday night/early Thursday. Any left over water on roads from the Wednesday rains will likely refreeze Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

[don]

Be safe tonight folks there could be a significant ice storm for the northern half of southeast Texas.

[jasons2k]

Good morning. Had a low of 11. I was predicting 5. Onto the next...

[Kingwood36]

Still don't have power..been off since 2:30 am Sunday night...this sucks!

[don]

I was afraid models were underestimating the staying power of arctic air Wxman57 mentioned also that this was a real possibility.12z mesoscale models are all coming in more aggressive and colder due to the coastal low being further offshore.Another thing is that a lot of objects and plants/trees outside are super cooled due to being well below freezing for more than 24+ hours now which could cause ice accretion to be more efficient than normally around here.

[BlueJay]

I'm in The Woodlands (Alden Bridge). We were without power from 11:30 Monday morning until 1:00 Tuesday morning. This included no cell service to the internet. Luckily we managed to keep our house interior temp to 47F and no pipes, so far, have burst.

We expect to be shut down again today.

This is not fun.

[Waded]

As I drive around Harris County for work today I'm amazed how wide spread the power outage is. Roughly half the red lights I run across are out.

[TexasBreeze]

Temps are rising fairly quickly and will see if we make it above freezing today for a little while. That will help things. Clouds will set in from the south and west later today ahead of the next system.

[don]

HRRR is getting more aggressive also.

[jasons2k]

I'm in The Woodlands (Alden Bridge). We were without power from 11:30 Monday morning until 1:00 Tuesday morning. This included no cell service to the internet. Luckily we managed to keep our house interior temp to 47F and no pipes, so far, have burst.

We expect to be shut down again today.

This is not fun.

Yeah, ice is for the birds. I'm ready for some 80's and shorts weather. I'm afraid when I finally get out and survey the freeze damage to the plants it's gonna be bad. My next door neighbor has a big, beautiful queen palm out front that is now toast.

[don]

Another issue is the fact that models have sped up the storm,similar to what happened with yesterdays storm.Originally the heaviest precipitation with tonight's storm was not suppose to start until mid morning or early afternoon tomorrow.But now mesoscale models are showing possibly thunderstorms coming in during rush hour with temps below freezing along and north of the 59 corridor,without the higher sun angle this increases the chances of us staying below freezing possibly the whole duration of the event.

[davidiowx]

HRRR has freezing rain further south now.. It's 28 in my backyard right now, will see if it gets above 32 before the clouds move in soon.

[TXWeatherMan]

Yeah I’m not liking how the HRRR looks.

[megsy]

Another issue is the fact that models have sped up the storm,similar to what happened with yesterdays storm.Originally the heaviest precipitation with tonight's storm was not suppose to start until mid morning or early afternoon tomorrow.But now mesoscale models are showing possibly thunderstorms coming in during rush hour with temps below freezing along and north of the 59 corridor,without the higher sun angle this increases the chances of us staying below freezing possibly the whole duration of the event.

My God.