February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Kingwood36
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Travis update...

We've got several hours of sleet before we ever get to snow, and it could be heavy sleet (and snow) at times.

This movie shows raw computer model data, and it continues to show significant sleet falling befor the transtion to snow occurs after midnight.

Why will it be sleeting when the temperatures are in the 20s at ground level?

Airplane data confirms that there is a significant layer of air above freezing (as warm as 45 degrees) between 5,000 and 10,000 feet above ground (roughly 1-2 miles up). Everything else in the atmosphere above and below that layer is freezing or colder. But that layer is warm enough to melt all the snow. It is then refreezing as sleet (ice pellets) befor reaching the ground.

So while I do think we'll eventually change over to snow (between 1am-4am for Houston), first comes the sleet, and lots of it. We'll wake up to a winter wonderland, but it may be more icy than snowy.

Also, if you look carefully at this computer model around 9am, it is showing "lake effect" snow downwind from Lake Livingston and "ocean effect" snow offshore from Galveston! That's what happens when arctic air blows over long stretches of warmer water. The turbulent flow it creates can generate snow showers!

Remember, temperatures will drop into the teens by morning and barely warm back into the 20s. Factor in those northwest winds at 15-25 mph and it's going to feel like its in the single digits all day long! Stay warm, friends!

We'll continue to guide you through this historic winter storm, and I'm confident we'll get through this together, come whay may.

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Texaspirate11
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32 and heavy rain...finally coming into my area
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weatherguy425
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Some lightning with heavy snow, sleet showers west of Houston. Don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder or two, tonight!
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Kingwood36
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Well I hope those whiney Dallas ppl on 2k are happy now

They got their snow.
Cromagnum
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Heavy freezing rain and a little bit of sleet in Rosharon right now
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don
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Looks like a decent area of precip is about to move into metro Houston.
megsy
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don wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:32 pm Looks like a decent area of precip is about to move into metro Houston.
West of Houston in Katy/Cinco and its moderate to heavy sleet. It’s so loud! This is awesome.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Feeling better about getting 5 plus inches up here. That snow shield approaching SA/Austin is going to intensify here with the gulf and unload.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Oh, I’m not going to bed. I got a heat lamp attached to the Ranger and will go driving through it. Up all night baby!
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jasons2k
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:44 pm Feeling better about getting 5 plus inches up here. That snow shield approaching SA/Austin is going to intensify here with the gulf and unload.
I hope so. All the discussion of that stout warm nose has me concerned.
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Ted
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:26 pm Well I hope those whiney Dallas ppl on 2k are happy now

They got their snow.
Yep, sad that WXman57 sides up with them and never gives us updated information in his home town board...did he have a falling out with KHOU?
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jasons2k
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Ted wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:47 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:26 pm Well I hope those whiney Dallas ppl on 2k are happy now

They got their snow.
Yep, sad that WXman57 sides up with them and never gives us updated information in his home town board...did he have a falling out with KHOU?
I bribed him. :lol: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :lol:

Actually, I just think he's busy. It's a lot of work to post on both boards. I know...
Last edited by jasons2k on Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Ptarmigan
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weatherguy425 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:25 pm Some lightning with heavy snow, sleet showers west of Houston. Don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder or two, tonight!
Thunder snow is a rarity.
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jasons2k
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It's down to 27 here now...
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Texaspirate11
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Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:53 pm
weatherguy425 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:25 pm Some lightning with heavy snow, sleet showers west of Houston. Don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder or two, tonight!
Thunder snow is a rarity.
Makes Jim Cantore scream with joy lol
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megsy
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Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:53 pm
weatherguy425 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:25 pm Some lightning with heavy snow, sleet showers west of Houston. Don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder or two, tonight!
Thunder snow is a rarity.
Looks like Giddings might have hit the jackpot! (Image from David Paul’s twitter)
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Texaspirate11 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:55 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:53 pm
weatherguy425 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:25 pm Some lightning with heavy snow, sleet showers west of Houston. Don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder or two, tonight!
Thunder snow is a rarity.
Makes Jim Cantore scream with joy lol
I’m Cantore on steroids. My first severe Winter memory was the 1989 December storm. I was 7. 70 and thunderstorms then temp dropped 45-50 degrees and had 6 hours of thunder sleet and thunder snow. It was wild.

I thought I’d never see it again but I went to grad school at Ohio State and saw it again.

I may again tonight.
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davidiowx
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Accumulating sleet, maybe light snow here. 26.2 at my house, kids are pretty excited yelling in the neighborhood haha
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Ted
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jasons2k wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:51 pm
Ted wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:47 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:26 pm Well I hope those whiney Dallas ppl on 2k are happy now

They got their snow.
Yep, sad that WXman57 sides up with them and never gives us updated information in his home town board...did he have a falling out with KHOU?
I bribed him. :lol: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :lol:

Actually, I just think he's busy. It's a lot of work to post on both boards. I know...
I understand...so hard to copy and paste...
davidiowx
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Forgot the picture lol
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