February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[srainhoutx]

The Euro suggests a couple of inches of snow/sleet to Galveston.

[DoctorMu]

It's crossed my mind 1,000 times. But I'm almost done with my MBA now...talk about a switcheroo!

I have thought about seeing if I could volunteer and work for free the weekend shift in Bryan/College-Station or Beaumont, just to get the experience. I'd do it. I think I could be a great OCM, but starting over at my age (47) -- most people would call that insanity, even if I look 10 years younger than I am. I even got carded a few weeks ago. I took that as a compliment - hehe.

Dropped down to 35 now. Very slow fall...

I though about it too. Was in the proggram for a brief cup.of coffee twice. Life got in the way. Trying to finish my PhD in History. Maybe later. So much a bucket list for me. Never to use it, just the knowledge

Heh - my undergrad was a double-major in History and English. And what I do is far, far away from that.

So....the NWS had me with a low of 32 tonight, and they raised it to 34. Probably the right call based on the flat-lining of my temp trend. I'm gonna be honest - after consistently trending below the forecast for the last several days, I am quite surprised that I am now on the warm side and there isn't as much CAA into my location. That 32F isotherm just wants to sit there...stubborn wedge of warmer air.

We need someone on KBTX who could do weekend weather. Hell, they're working for nearly free anway! I swear they just look at Friday's forecast, glance at accuweather...because they figure no one cares.

[DoctorMu]

Interesting, the thermometer says 35, but my patio table with a glass top - is slushy and forming a layer of glaze.

I remember Harold Taft at KXAS giving a physics lesson one time, and explaining how with wind and lower dew points with moisture falling, solid objects (metal and bridges) could cool faster than the air temperature, so it was possible to have ice on surfaces even if the air temp was slightly above freezing.

That's correct. Remember, air pockets are what make up insulation. Air transmits heat poorly compared with solids and liquids.

[jasons2k]

Did y'all see the dust storm in Vegas today, with wind gusts to 72mph? Foreboding?

[Cpv17]

Kingwood and Cro would like the latest run of the HRRR.

[srainhoutx]

Kingwood and Cro would like the latest run of the HRRR.

06Z

[Kingwood36]

Kingwood and Cro would like the latest run of the HRRR.

06Z

How accurate is the HRRR?

[Andrew]

Kingwood and Cro would like the latest run of the HRRR.

It can be a pretty good reference at locating mesoscale features. Traditionally, it can be too cold, especially when you get in the extended range (+18H). Overall, it will be a useful tool tomorrow evening.

[Scott747]

Both the 6z ICON and GFS look a little stronger with the coastal low. I'm still worried there's going to be a significant icing event along the coastal counties before any transition to snow would begin.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

6z GFS dumps 13 inches on me

[unome]

Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI)
The WSSI does not depict official warnings and should always be used in context with official NWS forecasts and warnings. For more information, please refer to the following links: Product/Service Description Document, WSSI Users Guide, Interactive ESRI Story Map, WSSI Future Work


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/wssi.php

[srainhoutx]

For the Record...

[srainhoutx]

From Jeff: Ice on HWY 6 N southbound @ 290.

[srainhoutx]

Sunday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Dangerous winter storm will move into the region starting late this afternoon lasting in Monday with crippling travel impacts

Extraordinary cold for Monday and Tuesday

Second winter storm possible over portions of the area Tuesday night-Thursday morning

Discussion:

Freezing line has progressed southeast overnight and extends from near Conroe to Cypress to Katy to Victoria. Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle has developed over parts of the area NW of the freezing line this morning and this is resulting in patchy ice forming on some bridges and overpasses across northwest Harris County and more widespread issues to the north and west. Travel to the north and west of Harris County is becoming dangerous and is ill advised.

Periods of light precipitation will be possible today with temperatures rising remaining below freezing generally NW of a Huntsville to Conroe to Hempstead to Wharton line and mid to upper 30’s south of that line.

A powerful upper level storm system will move across Texas tonight into Monday resulting in a significant and high impact winter storm. Strong arctic front will arrive this evening resulting in quickly falling temperatures along the development of widespread precipitation. Expect freezing rain to develop by late afternoon and early evening across much of the area and then transition to sleet and snow across much of the area late tonight into Monday. High resolution models continue to come in with a bit more snow over the area due to some meso scale banding features and given the expected dynamics aloft this looks reasonable. Will bump snowfall total up a bit more

Accumulations:

Precipitation will onset late this afternoon and early this evening for most areas

Ice:

1/10 to 1/4 of an inch across most areas, especially the US 59 corridor

Snow:

4-6 inches: Houston and Trinity Counties

3-4 inches: College Station to Huntsville

2-3 inches: north of a line from Cleveland to Conroe to Hempstead to Columbus

1-2 inches: north of a line from Liberty to Houston to Sugar Land to Wharton

Less than an inch: south of a line from Winnie to League City to Bay City

Impacts:

Travel:

Ice and snow falling with temperatures falling into the low 20’s and upper 10’s Monday morning will result in near impossible travel on all surfaces…this includes surface streets, sidewalks, and parking lots. Anyone attempting to travel has a high potential of becoming stranded…and the simple message is where you area Sunday evening is where you are going to be Tuesday.

Power:

Ice accumulations are right on the border between isolated and sporadic power outages and more significant widespread outages. Even with the marginal ice accumulations for widespread power disruption, winds of 15-25mph may be the key factor that pushes tree limbs and power lines past their breaking point. Residents should be prepared for power outages.

Historic Cold:

A most memorable cold air outbreak will accompany the winter precipitation. Temperatures will fall below freezing Sunday evening for many areas and remain below freezing into Tuesday and Wednesday…it is possible that areas from College Station to Huntsville do not get above freezing until Friday. The long duration of the sub-freezing temperatures along with the brutal intensity of the cold air mass is going to create extensive damage across the region to vegetation and infrastructure.

Expect most areas to fall into the 10’s and low 20’s on Monday (coast in the upper 20’s) and then continue to fall Monday night and bottom out with lows in the upper 1’s and low 10’s north of I-10 and upper 10’s and low 20’s near the beaches. College Station to Huntsville looking like lower to middle 1’s. Wind chills Monday night will fall into the -10’s and -1’s across much of the area.

This is life threatening cold and persons should limit outside exposure to short periods of time to avoid frostbite and hypothermia.

Lastly, given the intensity and duration of the cold, portions of lakes and ponds, stock ponds, and other small water bodies, ect may freeze over with a layer of ice…DO NOT attempt to walk on any frozen water body as the ice will not be thick enough to support a person.

Time is running out to prepare for the extreme cold…have all preparations completed by this afternoon.

Preparations:

Protect all and any exposed pipes, shut off and drain sprinkler systems. Open cabinet doors and closet doors to get as much heat against outside facing wall pipes as possible starting Sunday night. In some cases the best course of action may be to shut off water to a structure and drain pipes overnight when water usage is low to avoid pipes freezing and bursting.

Heavily cover and protect any tropical vegetation, citrus, or vulnerable plants. Given the intensity and depth of the freezing conditions this will likely be a killing freeze for much of the tropical landscape of this region.

Pets and livestock should have proper shelter, feed, and water. Normal water supplies will likely freeze over including stock ponds and lakes.

Persons should plan to limit outdoor exposure Monday and Tuesday as wind chills will be dangerously cold for our region. Prolonged exposure could result in frostbite and hypothermia.

[walsean1]

At FM 2920 /HWY 99 and Spring Steubner, getting some Sleet, Freezing Raiin. Please stay home.

[txsnowmaker]

This morning’s GFS run is unreal.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... w_us_8.png

EDIT: With agreement from the ICON and NAM!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_31.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_34.png

[Kingwood36]

Man this blows if I only get freezing rain here and not single damn snowflake

[Kingwood36]

How confident are we about a warm nose?

[srainhoutx]

How confident are we about a warm nose?

The trends the past 48 hours have been to erode the warm nose quicker and to shift the snow/sleet line to the Coast.

[Kingwood36]

How confident are we about a warm nose?

The trends the past 48 hours have been to erode the warm nose quicker and to shift the snow/sleet line to the Coast.

Hopefully that's true..cuz judging by what Jeff wrote ppl in the Coastal Counties are just out of luck