February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[txsnowmaker]

Totals from Ukmet by Friday. Over 8 inches across Houston!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sn10_acc.us ... 357cb4.png

[Kingwood36]

New Ukmet shows half a foot of snow in Houston by the end of Monday, and a bit more in certain places around the city!

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Doesnt that include ice and sleet? Because that shows around 8" for me.

I'm not buying that ukmet...that's the only one showing those crazy amounts even south of I10

[txsnowmaker]

Totals from Ukmet by Friday. Over 8 inches across Houston! Around 5 or so inches after system 1 ends on Monday.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sn10_acc.us ... 357cb4.png

[Kingwood36]

Nice to look at but I'm not buying it

[txsnowmaker]

New Ukmet shows half a foot of snow in Houston by the end of Monday, and a bit more in certain places around the city!

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Doesnt that include ice and sleet? Because that shows around 8" for me.

I'm not buying that ukmet...that's the only one showing those crazy amounts even south of I10

As they say the trend is your friend. Other models are kicking up projected snow totals for our area.

[TXWeatherMan]

New Ukmet shows half a foot of snow in Houston by the end of Monday, and a bit more in certain places around the city!

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Doesnt that include ice and sleet? Because that shows around 8" for me.

I'm not buying that ukmet...that's the only one showing those crazy amounts even south of I10

GFS also has 9 inches for parts of Harris and Montgomery county

[Kingwood36]

I need that trend to trend southward lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I think my 8-12 prediction may be a little more widespread than just my original localized high totals...

[Kingwood36]

I honestly believe some places are going to get snow and higher amounts that are not presently being forecasted for..there are always surprises with these events..every time

[Kingwood36]

It's amazing how a little less than 20 miles can impact who gets what..nws is calling for Pearland to get snow while Angleton isnt that far from Pearland and its all ice here...crazy!

[snowman65]

Let's just say, for fun, the UKmet is right and it's calling for 8" for me...now, let's just say it included sleet/ice, now, we will not be getting 8" of sleet/ice, just wont happen...so, let's say we get 1" of ice/sleet.....SO, the other 7" has to be some other form, what else is there other than snow? Even if you don't believe the 8" and would agree on 4" or 5", there has to be more there than just ice and sleet.....If I'm not making any sense, stop me LOLOL

[Kingwood36]

Let's just say, for fun, the UKmet is right and it's calling for 8" for me...now, let's just say it included sleet/ice, now, we will not be getting 8" of sleet/ice, just wont happen...so, let's say we get 1" of ice/sleet.....SO, the other 7" has to be some other form, what else is there other than snow? Even if you don't believe the 8" and would agree on 4" or 5", there has to be more there than just ice and sleet.....If I'm not making any sense, stop me LOLOL

Quit while you are ahead lol

[Cpv17]

So now the models are taking away the Wednesday event? Looks like mostly rain now?

[Kingwood36]

So now the models are taking away the Wednesday event? Looks like mostly rain now?

Looking that way

[Stratton20]

The models are going to go back and forth on the wednesday event, even if they are showing all rain im definitely not buying that at all, temps could still be at or below around freezing when that system arrives, im anticipating that it wont be just rain

[Ace]

Thank you!!!!!

If you don’t have a wool blanket I would use fiberglass bats unfaced(no paper on them). Look at some little hardware stores too.

[djmike]

So now the models are taking away the Wednesday event? Looks like mostly rain now?

Yeah they removed for Beaumont too Wednesday. It will be borderline for us. Again we get surprises with these things so I bet we see SOMETHING Wednesday. Lol

[Stormlover2020]

Could be colder if we have a lot of ice and snow on ground will be a wait and see ordeal

[weatherguy425]

Y’all, c’mon now, haha.

Models are struggling with the next 24-hours, let alone the next 3-5 days. Wednesday’s system could, indeed, bring a cold rain for some and wintry impacts for others. But, models are going to continue to struggle over the next couple days. Plus, the lingering impacts from Sunday night’s system could easily influence Wednesday’s (Ex. Snow, ice pack modifying any attempt at temperature moderation ahead of Wednesday’s system). We love chatting about crazy model runs, but try to keep things in perspective.

[DoctorMu]

Damn, I hope those amazon.com prime space heaters make it tomorrow before the wintry mix tomorrow evening. (for the garage)

Finally, NWS precip chances are 90% for Sunday night/Monday. They had been hovering in the 50-60% range for days. With each refresh, NWS teaks the forecast, but it's a bit more snowy in the last iteration. We're down to NowCasting, really.