Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:00 pm
Winter Storm Watches have just been issued folks!
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
241 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021
...WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
Doesn’t seem like much of an event south of 10 with that wording.
There are a lot of things that could and will change. It is cold outside, very cold and more cold is coming. It is very difficult to forecast these events a day out, much less 2+ days. Everyone needs to be ready and prepare for the worst.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
241 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021
...WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
Doesn’t seem like much of an event south of 10 with that wording.
There are a lot of things that could and will change. It is cold outside, very cold and more cold is coming. It is very difficult to forecast these events a day out, much less 2+ days. Everyone needs to be ready and prepare for the worst.
Yeah the 18z NAM looks slightly better but I remember someone from the Jan event saying it overdoes qpf amounts.
jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:26 pm
My high temp today may end-up being colder than tonight’s forecast low. Think about that one...
I haven't seen it get above 35-36 here in Katy so far but my weather channel hourly forecast keeps trying to force it up to 43 lol. I don't think either highs in the 40s for the weekend are going to come to fruition.
jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:26 pm
My high temp today may end-up being colder than tonight’s forecast low. Think about that one...
I haven't seen it get above 35-36 here in Katy so far but my weather channel hourly forecast keeps trying to force it up to 43 lol. I don't think either highs in the 40s for the weekend are going to come to fruition.
TWC had 46 for my high today. Highest I got was 37 lol we’ve reached peak heating for the day. Temps will start falling now.
jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:26 pm
My high temp today may end-up being colder than tonight’s forecast low. Think about that one...
I haven't seen it get above 35-36 here in Katy so far but my weather channel hourly forecast keeps trying to force it up to 43 lol. I don't think either highs in the 40s for the weekend are going to come to fruition.
TWC had 46 for my high today. Highest I got was 37 lol we’ve reached peak heating for the day. Temps will start falling now.
Models are really struggling with the shallowness of this cold air. I suspect this will be the case for much of the weekend.
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Good grief. Basically the entire state is covered in some form of winter weather advisory, save for the sliver behind the pine curtain. My curiosity has me wondering when the last time the map looked like that.
18z ICON trended in the right direction. Has some snow all the way down to the coast now for Monday. Very light amounts south of 10 but in the 12z run it basically had nothing south of 10.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
txbear wrote: ↑Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:52 pm
Good grief. Basically the entire state is covered in some form of winter weather advisory, save for the sliver behind the pine curtain. My curiosity has me wondering when the last time the map looked like that.
NWS SHV will issue tonight. The whole state will be under one minus the deep valley.
NWS has me now with a low of 9F on Tuesday morning. A little too warm, still, in my opinion, but getting there.
I'm putting an electric space heater in the garage because I have an exterior faucet line running along that exterior wall....I am glad my house is 100% brick and no siding - that may help a little.
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:33 pm
Nws thinks my area(angleton) will get some snow Wed and thur
Wednesday Night
Rain showers, snow, and sleet likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Thursday
A chance of snow and sleet. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Also on Monday and Monday night:
Washington's Birthday
Snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 7am, then snow and sleet likely. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 28. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Night
A chance of snow and sleet before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
First time to post so forgive me if I didn’t do this right!
NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for all SE TX counties from 300pm Sunday to 600pm Monday
A significant, impactful, and dangerous winter storm will impact much of TX Sunday night into Monday…travel conditions will be extremely hazardous.
Historic and challenging cold will cripple the region Sunday night-Tuesday or longer.
There is 48 hours left to prepare for this hazardous event and maximum preparations should be well underway to attempt to mitigate property damage.
Discussion:
As the Sunday night and Monday storm system now begins to come into the range of the short range models, we are starting to get a bit more confidence in the P-type. Unfortunately it is looking like a shallow cold air layer with temperatures warmer aloft will promote mostly a freezing rain profile with increase mixture of sleet and snow as one moves north of I-10. It still remain possible that all P-types (freezing rain, sleet, and snow) could be experienced at all locations.
Since we are starting to lean more toward the freezing rain potential will start to put some accumulations out, but these are subject to change. Current thinking is most areas that experience freezing rain will have .10 to .20 of an inch of accumulation with maybe 1-3 inches of sleet and snow north of the freezing rain area. With winds of 15-25mph and higher gusts Sunday night into Monday combined with the ice accumulation may result in tree damage and power outages.
Precipitation should end Monday early afternoon with bitter cold temperatures into the low 10’s north of I-10 and mid 10’s south of I-10. Wind chills Monday night into Tuesday will fall into the 1’s or even -1’s over the area.
Second Storm System:
A second winter storm may potentially affect the area Wednesday into Wednesday night with additional threat of mixed precipitation phases, but this is still uncertain.
Decision Support Timing:
Winter Precipitation Onset: after 600pm Sunday
Winter Precipitation End: early afternoon Monday
Onset Freezing temperatures: Sunday evening extending into Tuesday and possibly longer
Preparations:
I cannot stress enough the need for maximum cold weather preparations to help mitigate significant property damage
Protect all and any exposed pipes, shut off and drain sprinkler systems. Open cabinet doors and closet doors to get as much heat against outside facing wall pipes as possible starting Sunday night. In some cases the best course of action may be to shut off water to a structure and drain pipes overnight when water usage is low to avoid pipes freezing and bursting.
Heavily cover and protect any tropical vegetation, citrus, or vulnerable plants. Given the intensity and depth of the freezing conditions this will likely be a killing freeze for much of the tropical landscape of this region.
Pets and livestock should have proper shelter, feed, and water. Normal water supplies will likely freeze over including stock ponds and lakes.
Persons should plan to limit outdoor exposure Monday and Tuesday as wind chills will be dangerously cold for our region. Prolonged exposure could result in frostbite and hypothermia.
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