February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
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The run from the GFS is a worst-case scenario where we have a solid layer of frozen precipitation and clearing skies resulting in strong radiational cooling. Could it happen? Sure, but I think the more likely scenario is lows in the upper 10s/low 20s. Obviously, something to keep in mind and further shows the importance of any precipitation that does fall. Just reading the GFS verbatim we would be looking at a "noreaster" type of event with a coastal low developing and tracking to the northeast.
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- MontgomeryCoWx
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UKMET says accumulating snow from Galveston to Brownsville... LOL
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We had nearly a couple of inches of snow on the ground for at least 24 hours, but definitely not a couple of inches of ice. There were pipe issues and some power troubles as well, but nowhere near the trouble that would have come from a coupe of inches of ice.
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How much snow is being spit out for Houston from the latest suite of 0z products? That can’t all be ice in the GFS map?!?!
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This is incredible. That would be something else.
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- Pro Met
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GFS is definitely a worse-case scenario and it seems too unbelievable to be true. Not saying it can't happen but that's a perfect storm of heavy snow or ice accumulations and a clearing sky like Andrew alluded to. Strong radiational cooling could in theory cause our temps to tank to near all-time lows. We'll see. Not ready to go that far yet.
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These models would likely be a repeat of 1989 where Galveston Bay froze over with an ensuing massive fish die off. These maps actually suggest it could be even worse if they came to fruition. Let’s have snow without the devastation and damage to homes, infrastructure, and wildlife!
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- Pro Met
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A freeze of this magnitude has been well documented many times in this area. It only stands to reason it was going to happen again. I don't think it's a question of if but how bad. It's all about the snow/ice cover I think at this point and how fast the skies clear.
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The GFS run is wild. It adds even more snow on Wednesday. Check out this map! Seems to show about a half foot of snow in Houston. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_32.png