February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[harp]

On cue, the Euro is now predicting a near repeat of Jan 10th. No comment on roads...

What was January 10th?

Where everything was NORTH of a certain hwy

I'm in Louisiana, so I might not get it. LOL!

[Cromagnum]

Ch 13 isn't biting. They are saying Houston gets to 28 Monday with highs well above freezing. Dry and colder Tuesday. Their graphic showed it just cold and wet for thr majority of us.

[Ted]

On cue, the Euro is now predicting a near repeat of Jan 10th. No comment on roads...

What happened January 10th?

[Kingwood36]

On cue, the Euro is now predicting a near repeat of Jan 10th. No comment on roads...

What happened January 10th?

It snowed north of hwy 105 lol everybody else got jack

[Kingwood36]

Ch 13 isn't biting. They are saying Houston gets to 28 Monday with highs well above freezing. Dry and colder Tuesday. Their graphic showed it just cold and wet for thr majority of us.




as usual they are being conservative as is every other station

[txbear]

On cue, the Euro is now predicting a near repeat of Jan 10th. No comment on roads...

Have to just grin and bear it for those of us south of 105 at this point. The coincidences are just too good. Pure speculation and possibly hyperbole, but I really wonder if that is where the heat island effect more or less begins for the metro.

Still a decent ways off and fun to be had.

[Kingwood36]

Remember guys there will be swings in the models..some good some bad

[Cpv17]

Y’all shouldn’t even focus on precip this far out. That is setting yourself up for disaster.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

On cue, the Euro is now predicting a near repeat of Jan 10th. No comment on roads...

What was January 10th?

The most beautiful snow storm in College Station. We drove from Magnolia to CS and it was picturesque. Roads were a mess on the way back though.

Let's hope the 540 line doesn't dry hump Hwy 105 this time and busts on through.

[Kingwood36]

Y’all shouldn’t even focus on precip this far out. That is setting yourself up for disaster.

I agree..you gotta have the cold first then the precip will come

[Andrew]

Ch 13 isn't biting. They are saying Houston gets to 28 Monday with highs well above freezing. Dry and colder Tuesday. Their graphic showed it just cold and wet for thr majority of us.

Their forecast looked pretty good. I think a low of 24 Tuesday morning is honestly pretty aggressive. Precipitation is just too difficult to pindown yet when we still don't have confidence on when or where the shortwave trough will track.

[AtascocitaWX]

How much snow is the 18z GFS depicting for the city of Houston on Monday?

Oh, boy.

Is that 4inches?

[Cpv17]

I’d like to remind everyone here in southeast Texas, this will be your best chance at snow in a long time. This will be true Artic air coming from Siberia. The January 10th event almost produced here and we will be dealing with something that’s significantly stronger than that. But try not to focus on precip this far out. Wait till we come in range of the higher resolution models, preferably within 48 hours. Also, keep in mind that the Globals aren’t handling this event well at all and have a lot of risk to bust with temps a lot warmer than what they actually are.

[Cpv17]

How much snow is the 18z GFS depicting for the city of Houston on Monday?

Oh, boy.

Is that 4inches?

Yes, but most of that is ice being depicted on that model run, not snow.

[tireman4]

The Houston nws office has always been anti cold and anti frozen precip. They wont admit to it until it actually happens. Watch,, a winter storm watch will be needed and they will hold,hold,hold, off until the very last possible second.

That's not how they work at all. I know a few of the forecasters there well. They'll always steer on the side of caution when it comes to hard freezes/mix precip down this way unless it's less than 3 days out with high confidence. Always best to be conservative when making those type of forecast down here along the coast, especially with models handling this setup very poorly, as is such with a shallow arctic airmass.

Also... you sure do have a lot of accounts you login from.


IMO, chances look relatively high (>60%) for some form of winter precip on President's Day. However, likely mainly in the form of sleet/freezing rain. Snow would be much nicer though. With that said, confidence looks high there will be a pretty deep snowpack building to our north and the pattern still looks pretty volatile through the rest of the month so anymore shots of cold air won't be as modified. Though I don't put much stock into what is going on beyond 3-4 days right now.

Hell, 3-4 days is probably pushing it lol I can’t even trust most models right now 12 hours out.

I would not touch this with a 10-foot pole until I am sure if I am the NWS. Too many things can go wrong. I think we will know more by Friday/Saturday on firm numbers and conviction..

[jasons2k]

As is common at nighttime, the front shows-up well on radar now. Just crossing the NW portions of BW8 near Jersey Village.

[Kingwood36]

David paul just did a fb live..if you guys follow him on fb check it out..he layed things out perfectly..saying the models are initializing warmer temps then what they actually are..and he believes those numbers are colder then what he has forecasted..just a great read on the overall situation...go watch it!

[Cpv17]

David paul just did a fb live..if you guys follow him on fb check it out..he layed things out perfectly..saying the models are initializing warmer temps then what they actually are..and he believes those numbers are colder then what he has forecasted..just a great read on the overall situation...go watch it!

David Paul is probably my favorite tv met in all of Houston.

[Ptarmigan]

Oh, boy.

Is that 4inches?

Yes, but most of that is ice being depicted on that model run, not snow.

Ice is more dangerous than snow. I would be concerned of that.

[Kingwood36]

The picture below he said the models( the morning euro run)said it would be 46 degrees in dallas at 7 pm tonight..its not..its 33..thats why he is saying the models are forecasting off of bad information and the numbers are colder than what's being projected. Great fb live!