February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

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Kingwood36
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bdog38 wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:31 pm Snow three days in a row maybe 4.


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Kingwood36
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;)
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don
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0Z GFS looks a little better, it's still cold but not as cold as the previous run.Has most of southeast Texas below freezing from Saturday night to Tuesday.With temps in the mid 20s,which is more tolerable, with sleet/freezing rain on presidents day, as the main upper trough passes through.The 0z ICON has light freezing rain on Saturday with bands of moderate snow with the presidents day storm.
Last edited by don on Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
txsnowmaker
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Well since the other site that many of us follow has been down all night I’m sure there are extra eyes in here tonight.
danmaloney
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im predicting snow and bitter cold south of highway 1%5.
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don
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The CMC has wintry precip on Valentines day, and on Presidents Day.
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Andrew
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GFS solution is more in line with the ECMWF on a slightly more split flow in the upper-levels. We do start to see a lot more cold air advection from the north and northeast early next week but it is delayed compared to previous runs. Still, we would likely see hard freezes across much of the region.
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Cpv17
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danmaloney wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:56 pm im predicting snow and bitter cold south of highway 1%5.
GFS is on a warming trend since its 12z run. Went from showing single digits/teens to now mainly showing 20’s.
Kingwood36
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You can still get snow in the 20s lol im good with 20s
txsnowmaker
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don wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:00 pm The CMC has wintry precip on Valentines day, and on Presidents Day.
That’s got a 1%5 type line around Houston, forming a barrier right around the city for freezing rain vs snow. Lol. I’ll go with the GFS and ICON.
Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:15 pm You can still get snow in the 20s lol im good with 20s
I’m not worried about the precip part this far out. Hi-res models will do a better job of picking that up within 48 hours. They also will do a better job with temps too over the globals.
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I think the NAM will offer up a more realistic idea of what temperatures we may see. Arctic air is tricky and may be colder than models are advertising. Although I do find it strange that the GFS was so cold with "only" a 1047 mb high over the northern plains. Seems lightweight. We've pushed our daytime highs into the low to mid 30s for the weekend and Monday but that may be too bullish. May have to inch them back up.
txsnowmaker
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KHOU BLake wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:56 pm I think the NAM will offer up a more realistic idea of what temperatures we may see. Arctic air is tricky and may be colder than models are advertising. Although I do find it strange that the GFS was so cold with "only" a 1047 mb high over the northern plains. Seems lightweight. We've pushed our daytime highs into the low to mid 30s for the weekend and Monday but that may be too bullish. May have to inch them back up.
If Arctic air may be colder than models are advertising, then why the discussion about having to raise the currently forecasted high temperatures?
txsnowmaker
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This place sure is quiet. Quite the inopportune time for S2K to go down.
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KHOU BLake wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:56 pm I think the NAM will offer up a more realistic idea of what temperatures we may see. Arctic air is tricky and may be colder than models are advertising. Although I do find it strange that the GFS was so cold with "only" a 1047 mb high over the northern plains. Seems lightweight. We've pushed our daytime highs into the low to mid 30s for the weekend and Monday but that may be too bullish. May have to inch them back up.

I think part of it is the snow/ice pack that the GFS was showing on previous runs compared to the most recent solution. It seemed like it was showing the perfect storm of cold air, wintry precip during the day and then some clearing/marginal traditional cooling at night to keep temperatures so low. Most recent runs from the GFS and ECMWF have further consolidated on highs in the mid-30s and lows in the upper to mid-20s.
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DoctorMu
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Euro 0z came in colder.
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DoctorMu
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Canadian still cold.
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srainhoutx
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Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Prolonged cold air event increasingly likely for much of TX late this weekend into early next week.

Some winter precipitation will be possible in the post frontal cold air mass this weekend into early next week.

1064mb arctic high pressure cells has formed over the northern slopes of Alaska and is ridging southward along the front range of the Canadian Rockies into Montana where 1052mb surface pressures are found. The arctic boundary has spread deep into TX overnight with temperatures of 23 at Wichita Falls and near freezing at Dallas. Boundary has continued to slide southward under the cold and dense air mass against model projections that stalled it over N TX. Boundary will clear N TX this morning and slowly move over at least the NW portions of our area today. Expect a strong temperature gradient to develop along the front as a very warm air mass south of the boundary warms into the 70’s and temperature behind the boundary fall into the 40’s and 50’s. Some of the high resolution guidance show the front moving as far south and east as the US 59 corridor by this evening. Front will likely stall somewhere in the HWY 105 to US 59 corridor today with cold air filtering into the north of the front and warmth to its south. Boundary will remain stalled over the area on Wednesday and with increasing moisture and disturbances approaching from the SW/WSW rain chances will be increasing Wednesday into Thursday.

Thursday:

Arctic boundary will begin to move southward and off the upper TX coast and this will bring all of SE TX into the post frontal cold air mass. Expect temperatures to fall during the day from morning highs in the 50’s and 60’s into the 40’s by early evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue before ending in the evening hours.

Friday:

Generally a cold, but dry post frontal regime will be in place with lows in the 30’s and highs struggling to reach the mid to upper 40’s under cold air advection.

Weekend:

Another surge of arctic air arrives on Saturday and this surge will likely be very cold. Temperatures may fall into the 30’s during the day on Saturday and then below freezing Saturday night over much of the area. Clouds will be increasing Saturday night into Sunday as a disturbance approaches from the W and a coastal low begins to form over the NW Gulf. Cold air will be firmly locked in across the region by this point and precipitation may develop across the region Sunday into Monday. Height cross sections support the potential for freezing rain and sleet given the shallow depth of the cold air mass with warm air “overrunning” the surface cold pool aloft. Temperatures on Sunday and Monday may struggle to reach the mid 30’s for highs given clouds and cold air advection and it is possible some areas may remain below freezing from Saturday night through Tuesday morning, especially north and west of Houston.

Uncertainty:

How low overnight lows go along with the duration of any freezing temperatures remain uncertain. While the threat for winter precipitation is showing a signal in the guidance, it is unclear when, how much, and to some degree what kind of precipitation may fall (generally leaning toward freezing rain and sleet vs. snow) as well as the amount of moisture that will be available.

Preparations:

Residents should be aware of the potential for prolonged cold including the threat for extended freezing temperatures and have cold weather measures ready…including plants, pets/livestock, pipes, and people. Generally for most cold air events in SE TX we do not have to worry about pipes, but this could be an event that pipes (especially any outside exposed pipes will need protection). Monitor trusted weather sources frequently and avoid basing decisions on individual operational model runs that are showing wild variability currently.

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Stormlover2020
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Shallow air mass like I’ve been saying
Kingwood36
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This is why weather bug is a joke...how can it be mostly sunny with a probable chance of rain and snow? 😆 lol....
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