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Re: January 2021

Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:52 am
by ArizonaAZMeador
I find it amusing how this board goes quiet when the models are waffling. First there is a winter storm,then it disappears and everyone loses hope. I hate model hugging. The best Houston winter events are never predicted correctly by " the models". Dan used to tell me, live by the models,die by the models.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:52 pm
by Cpv17
The models should never be used as an official forecast. They should be used as a tool along with your own personal input to help deliver as accurate a forecast as possible. Models help tremendously and I think any met would agree with that but there’s a lot more to making a forecast than just going by what the models say. I call that lazy forecasting!

Re: January 2021

Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:08 pm
by ArizonaAZMeador
More often than not the models are used for forecasting. TWC is most guilty of this. I've also seen local Houston on air meterologists guilty of this. When Dr Neil Frank would make his forecasts he did look at model data but he also used his own knowledge and experience.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:57 pm
by ArizonaAZMeador
So. how is that winter storm for Sunday coming along? :)

Re: January 2021

Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:44 pm
by Cpv17
ArizonaAZMeador wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:57 pm So. how is that winter storm for Sunday coming along? :)
None of us never said anything about it actually happening. We said it was just a possibility. It’s impossible for any model to accurately predict something a week away.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:21 pm
by ArizonaAZMeador
If it is impossible for a model to make a semi accurate forecast a week out, then they shouldnt be allowed to even try to forecast that far ahead. I say limit model forecasts to 4 days in order to be more accurate. Remember, models are programmed by human beings and all human beings make mistakes.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:30 pm
by ArizonaAZMeador
why is the air so cold in Siberia and the north pole but that bitter air cant move? look at the current weather in yakutsk russia:

-53°F
RealFeel® -45°
Fog
Wind
NE 2 mph
Wind Gusts
2 mph
Humidity
58%
Indoor Humidity
1% (Dangerously Dry)
Dew Point
-62° F
Pressure
↑ 30.31 in
Cloud Cover
20%
Visibility
0.00 mi
Cloud Ceiling 30000

Re: January 2021

Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:34 pm
by ArizonaAZMeador
current weather khandyga russia

Now
Clear.
-60 °F
Clear.


Feels Like: -60 °F
Forecast: -50 / -58 °F
Wind: No wind

Location: Teply Kljuch
Current Time: Jan 15, 2021 at 9:19:19 am
Latest Report: Jan 15, 2021 at 6:00 am
Visibility: 6 mi
Pressure: 30.50 "Hg
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: -62 °F <----THAT NEEDS TO COME HERE AND HOP THE NORTH POLE

Re: January 2021

Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:31 am
by DoctorMu
Seems Kat-astrophic.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 4:03 am
by Andrew
Models are let progressive with the cut-off low over the Baja Region for next week. Instead of stalling the low over West Texas, the system gets sheared over the Pacific. Still something to watch, but definitely would be less of a concern for flooding if models stick with this solution.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:36 am
by Katdaddy
A little breezy across SE TX today.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds of around 10 mph early this morning will
increase to 15 to 25 mph by mid morning and become very gusty by
late morning with gusts up to 35 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:35 am
by ArizonaAZMeador
Now the models are waffling on rain for next week. All I can say is, we need bitter cold and frozen precip and we need it now. I'm just tired of model waffling. The bitter cold air of Siberia needs to cross the pole and head south to Houston.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:41 am
by ArizonaAZMeador
current weather Yakutsk, Russia
Now
Fog.
-56 °F
Fog.


Feels Like: -56 °F
Forecast: -54 / -57 °F
Wind: No wind

Location: Jakutsk
Current Time: Jan 16, 2021 at 1:25:22 am
Latest Report: Jan 16, 2021 at 1:00 am
Visibility: 0 mi
Pressure: 30.21 "Hg
Humidity: 48%
Dew Point: -67 °F <--we need that to cross the pole in full force and head straight to Texas with full force.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:44 am
by ArizonaAZMeador
CURRENT WEATHER
1:28 AM oymyakon russia


-66°F <----that needs to come to Houston and put us in single digits
RealFeel® -54°
Mostly clear
Wind
0 mph
Wind Gusts
0 mph
Humidity
82%
Indoor Humidity
1% (Dangerously Dry)
Dew Point
-69° F
Pressure
↔ 30.65 in
Cloud Cover
25%
Visibility
3 mi
Cloud Ceiling

Re: January 2021

Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 11:41 am
by Cpv17
Dew points are in the teens out there. Crazy dry air today!

Re: January 2021

Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 11:56 am
by ArizonaAZMeador
dewpoints in the teens would be perfect for wel bulbing snowfall

Re: January 2021

Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:15 pm
by Cromagnum
ArizonaAZMeador wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:44 am CURRENT WEATHER
1:28 AM oymyakon russia


-66°F <----that needs to come to Houston and put us in single digits
RealFeel® -54°
Mostly clear
Wind
0 mph
Wind Gusts
0 mph
Humidity
82%
Indoor Humidity
1% (Dangerously Dry)
Dew Point
-69° F
Pressure
↔ 30.65 in
Cloud Cover
25%
Visibility
3 mi
Cloud Ceiling
That would be a ton of busted pipes

Re: January 2021

Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:40 pm
by ArizonaAZMeador
Houston deserves to have bitter cold and snow after the harsh hot humid disgusting summers we have

Re: January 2021

Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:32 pm
by Cromagnum
Anyone else find it interesting that Tropikal stopped posting a week or two ago, and then suddenly there is someone who acts just like him but takes a 180 on stances regarding cold weather? LOL

Re: January 2021

Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:27 pm
by TXWeatherMan
Cromagnum wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:32 pm Anyone else find it interesting that Tropikal stopped posting a week or two ago, and then suddenly there is someone who acts just like him but takes a 180 on stances regarding cold weather? LOL
I was already thinking that lol