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Re: January 2021

Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:03 am
by Cpv17
snowman65 wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:13 am
I keep seeing news about this polar vortex split causing major cold outbreaks, blah blah blah, but I dont see anything special, even for the N.E.....
The PNA is forecast to go into neutral or slightly negative here pretty soon along with the EPO going negative. That should allow for some much colder air to head our way over the coming weeks as long as that southeast ridge doesn’t poke its head too far west which it very well might do. Time will tell. As long as the EPO remains negative and the PNA stays close to neutral then we’ll be in business down here.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:53 pm
by txbear
Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:03 am
snowman65 wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:13 am
I keep seeing news about this polar vortex split causing major cold outbreaks, blah blah blah, but I dont see anything special, even for the N.E.....
The PNA is forecast to go into neutral or slightly negative here pretty soon along with the EPO going negative. That should allow for some much colder air to head our way over the coming weeks as long as that southeast ridge doesn’t poke its head too far west which it very well might do. Time will tell. As long as the EPO remains negative and the PNA stays close to neutral then we’ll be in business down here.
Bring it on.

Speaking of cold, it's remained just cold enough to continue seeing the leftover snow still on the ground on satellite. Easy to pick out from roughly the east of Roswell NM on top of the Caprock, on over into the Abilene and Big Country region, and faint reflections into Central Texas. Legitimate snow storm.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:25 pm
by Cpv17
Man, talk about a big difference between the GFS and Euro. The Euro is fairly dry for next week and the GFS has a flood.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:02 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
snowman65 wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:13 am
I keep seeing news about this polar vortex split causing major cold outbreaks, blah blah blah, but I dont see anything special, even for the N.E.....
Because stratospheric warming events take 3-6 weeks to make it to the surface.

Yes, we will get cold again, when the EPO tanks.

Pattern is great.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:07 pm
by DoctorMu
Albedo kept temps mostly in the 20s and 30s until today. The snowman finally fell over, leaving just the base. :lol: There's still a few remnants of snow on roofs and north sides of homes and trees.

Doesn't look great for another winter storm this weekend, but predictability is low with stratospheric warming and really cold air bottled up.

There's still great potential for a jailbreak. ;)

Re: January 2021

Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:55 pm
by GBinGrimes
DoctorMu wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:07 pm
Albedo kept temps mostly in the 20s and 30s until today. The snowman finally fell over, leaving just the base. :lol: There's still a few remnants of snow on roofs and north sides of homes and trees.

Doesn't look great for another winter storm this weekend, but predictability is low with stratospheric warming and really cold air bottled up.

There's still great potential for a jailbreak. ;)
In the past couple of years we've had just about EVERYTHING weather-wise EXCEPT a full blown Polar jailbreak.

BRING.IT.ON.

And Jason...you'll need to cover those plants. Again.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:14 am
by Katdaddy
Very nice weather through the weekend. Next week is looking interesting with a January heavy rain event. From this morning's AFD:

A weak/stalled frontal boundary just to our north could add a little more color to this pallet...but one of the main points of interest with most of these 00Z global runs have been PWAT progs of near 2" Weds/Thurs as most of the other features remain in place. So while we are still a ways away (Days 5-7), trends are pointing to a very wet period next week. A Bear Watch may be needed.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:24 am
by tireman4
000
FXUS64 KHGX 141059
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
459 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Morning]...

Some areas of patchy fog over night developed in the northern
counties and some in the western counties as well. Most has been
shallow not wide spread and is expected to burn off early Quiet
conditions through the end of the week. High pressure in the
northern Gulf of Mexico will move eastward as a weak upper level
cool front moves through the area tonight. At this time, no active
weather is associated with the system, outside of a wind shift from
southwesterly to northwesterly. The northerly wind flow will bring
drier and cooler air. Tomorrow, highs will be in the mid to upper
60s and Friday will be in the mid to upper 50s. Lows this morning
are in the upper 30s with around 40 along the coastal counties and
around 50 at the extreme coastal cities. Friday night will be colder
with lows reaching freezing for most areas or just below. Extreme
coastal cities will reach around 40. 35

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday through Thursday]...

Dry/quiet weather expected for the weekend as surface high pressure
lingers over the area. Highs will range from the upper 50s into the
lower 60s with lows in the mid to upper 30s inland and the lower to
mid 40s at the coast. Skies will be mostly clear with winds light.

We`ll start to see some changes by Mon...with a lot of indications
that the rest of the week will be a very wet/active one. The east-
ward track of the surface high will allow for the return of a SE/S
flow Mon as daytime temperatures warm into the mid and upper 60s.
Via the strengthening onshore winds, increasing low-level moisture
(PWs rising to AOA 1") could account for some isolated WAA showers
Mon night/early Tues morning. However, POPs across SE TX should be
increasing significantly starting Tues afternoon with the develop-
ment of a coastal low as a series of embedded short-waves (via the
increasingly active southern stream jet) approach from the W/SW. A
weak/stalled frontal boundary just to our north could add a little
more color to this pallet...but one of the main points of interest
with most of these 00Z global runs have been PWAT progs of near 2"
Weds/Thurs as most of the other features remain in place. So while
we are still a ways away (Days 5-7), trends are pointing to a very
wet period next week. A Bear Watch may be needed. 41

&&

.MARINE...

Warm southwesterly flow today will be increasing and have hoisted a
SCEC - though by mid afternoon it gets borderline and may warrant an
SCA. The cold front should push off the coast tonight with a well
stacked northwest flow aloft early Friday morning. SCA conditions
look fairly likely tonight and the mid-morning update will likely
include the SCA for tonight. Winds remain stout through Friday as
the 850 front sweeps through. Winds relax on Saturday with high
pressure over the region then on Sunday the transition takes place
with warm and increasingly moist south and southeasterly flow late
Monday through Tuesday feeding into the next system. A long period
of moderate to strong onshore flow early to mid week is going to
bring more SCA conditions and possibly sea fog.

Tide levels near normal this morning should fall below normal
tonight and with the low tide cycle Friday afternoon expect low
water conditions that should continue through the Saturday afternoon
low tide cycle.

45

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions through the TAF period with a dry cool front moving
through out the flying areas tomorrow evening shifting winds
northwesterly. Winds will begin shifting in the CLL area around 21z
and then GLS around 00z. Outside of the winds shifting, no impacts
to operations are expected through out the forecast period. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 34 55 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 41 58 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 46 58 42 58 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Re: January 2021

Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:39 am
by Andrew
Going to have to pay attention to it early next week as an upper-level low slowly approaches Central/Eastern Texas. Some models hint at the possibility of heavy rain and a flooding threat. Still, a lot of details to figure out.

Re: January 2021

Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:35 am
by Cpv17
The cold will be building significantly in our source region over the next couple weeks, but we really need the EPO to go negative so it could push south towards us. Without that the cold will just stay up north.