January 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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Re: January 2021

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:28 am

The CMC is doing a lot better since its upgrade. I also encourage folks to check out the new GFS Para or GFS v16 which is now running 4 cycles a day during its testing period before going operational later this year.
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Re: January 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:19 pm

Cromagnum wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:00 am
djmike wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:55 am
NOT getting my hopes up next Sunday. Didnt even get 1 sleet pellet. Im gonna go outside and throw some ice cubes in the air and left them fall on my tin roof. Maybe that will make me feel better. 😂
What are people seeing next weekend? I see lows in the 40s...
GFS-Para has a track of snow, but a little north of yesterday's event. So, nothing yet.

NOAA and TWC were late to the party, although NOAA was on board 48 hours beforehand.

This far out, just a little error means a wide divergence in the outcome.

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Re: January 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:25 pm

Briefly, we didn't get much melting until beginning about 10 am. . Our son left for Minnesota and away from the snow... :lol:

just before 11:30 when Hwy 6 to Waco should be clear on the bridge. It was pretty slippery this morning with that wet, mushy snow - think moving ice. I suggesting waiting 90 min at 10 pm not because he would have difficulty, but Texans don't get snowy/icy conditions.

The sun came out about 15 minutes ago and leveraging some reduction in albedo the snow is finally melting significantly.
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Re: January 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:51 pm

The 12z Euro doesn’t have any snow but it has a lot of rain around here next Monday and Tuesday. It has the system now it just needs to find the cold.

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Re: January 2021

Post by tireman4 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:17 pm

Not to overstate this, but remember to channel your inner Srain and Wxman 57

1. Watch the source regions for cold
2. Usually 3-5 days out are the target points
3. Models will lose systems within the 7/8 day range ( and even in the 5 day range)
4. The trend is your friend

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Re: January 2021

Post by harp » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:34 pm

tireman4 wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:17 pm
Not to overstate this, but remember to channel your inner Srain and Wxman 57

1. Watch the source regions for cold
2. Usually 3-5 days out are the target points
3. Models will lose systems within the 7/8 day range ( and even in the 5 day range)
4. The trend is your friend
I agree, however the trend on the GFS lately is not good. :(

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Re: January 2021

Post by jasons2k » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:54 pm

NWS dropped my forecast low down to 28. I just got in from covering the plants and it's pretty chilly out there. The wind is still going too so I don't know how much good the blankets will do. All that and I didn't even get some snow to show for it.

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Re: January 2021

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:56 pm

Be aware of a possibility of Freezing Fog tomorrow morning mainly N of I-10. If it develops, travel troubles particularly on elevated roads could be an issue.
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Re: January 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:45 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:56 pm
Be aware of a possibility of Freezing Fog tomorrow morning mainly N of I-10. If it develops, travel troubles particularly on elevated roads could be an issue.
I dont believe I've ever dealt with freezing fog down here. Although the air is the cold, is it just because the ground is saturated with slightly warmer water?

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Re: January 2021

Post by Belmer » Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:51 pm

Cromagnum wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:45 pm
srainhoutx wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:56 pm
Be aware of a possibility of Freezing Fog tomorrow morning mainly N of I-10. If it develops, travel troubles particularly on elevated roads could be an issue.
I dont believe I've ever dealt with freezing fog down here. Although the air is the cold, is it just because the ground is saturated with slightly warmer water?
FZFG is rare down here because when when we do dip below freezing behind a trough, the air is usually much drier and/or a breeze that mixes the air (and we usually don't have residual snowfall). Although much of the snow has already melted off, there's still plenty of moisture from the melt and on top of the rainfall we received. The air temperature will fall near the dew point (30-32º) and the air will saturate. With clearing skies and calm winds, this will create an environment for some dense fog. Thus wherever the ambient temperature drops below freezing tonight will have the potential to see freezing fog. This should mainly be confined where the snow fell yesterday but could still certainly see some problems in our northern burbs where there was plenty of rain.
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