January 2021

[srainhoutx]

The CMC is doing a lot better since its upgrade. I also encourage folks to check out the new GFS Para or GFS v16 which is now running 4 cycles a day during its testing period before going operational later this year.

[DoctorMu]

NOT getting my hopes up next Sunday. Didnt even get 1 sleet pellet. Im gonna go outside and throw some ice cubes in the air and left them fall on my tin roof. Maybe that will make me feel better.

What are people seeing next weekend? I see lows in the 40s...

GFS-Para has a track of snow, but a little north of yesterday's event. So, nothing yet.

NOAA and TWC were late to the party, although NOAA was on board 48 hours beforehand.

This far out, just a little error means a wide divergence in the outcome.

[DoctorMu]

Briefly, we didn't get much melting until beginning about 10 am. . Our son left for Minnesota and away from the snow...

just before 11:30 when Hwy 6 to Waco should be clear on the bridge. It was pretty slippery this morning with that wet, mushy snow - think moving ice. I suggesting waiting 90 min at 10 pm not because he would have difficulty, but Texans don't get snowy/icy conditions.

The sun came out about 15 minutes ago and leveraging some reduction in albedo the snow is finally melting significantly.

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro doesn’t have any snow but it has a lot of rain around here next Monday and Tuesday. It has the system now it just needs to find the cold.

[tireman4]

Not to overstate this, but remember to channel your inner Srain and Wxman 57

1. Watch the source regions for cold
2. Usually 3-5 days out are the target points
3. Models will lose systems within the 7/8 day range ( and even in the 5 day range)
4. The trend is your friend

[harp]

Not to overstate this, but remember to channel your inner Srain and Wxman 57

1. Watch the source regions for cold
2. Usually 3-5 days out are the target points
3. Models will lose systems within the 7/8 day range ( and even in the 5 day range)
4. The trend is your friend

I agree, however the trend on the GFS lately is not good.

[jasons2k]

NWS dropped my forecast low down to 28. I just got in from covering the plants and it's pretty chilly out there. The wind is still going too so I don't know how much good the blankets will do. All that and I didn't even get some snow to show for it.

[srainhoutx]

Be aware of a possibility of Freezing Fog tomorrow morning mainly N of I-10. If it develops, travel troubles particularly on elevated roads could be an issue.

[Cromagnum]

Be aware of a possibility of Freezing Fog tomorrow morning mainly N of I-10. If it develops, travel troubles particularly on elevated roads could be an issue.

I dont believe I've ever dealt with freezing fog down here. Although the air is the cold, is it just because the ground is saturated with slightly warmer water?

[Belmer]

Be aware of a possibility of Freezing Fog tomorrow morning mainly N of I-10. If it develops, travel troubles particularly on elevated roads could be an issue.

I dont believe I've ever dealt with freezing fog down here. Although the air is the cold, is it just because the ground is saturated with slightly warmer water?

FZFG is rare down here because when when we do dip below freezing behind a trough, the air is usually much drier and/or a breeze that mixes the air (and we usually don't have residual snowfall). Although much of the snow has already melted off, there's still plenty of moisture from the melt and on top of the rainfall we received. The air temperature will fall near the dew point (30-32º) and the air will saturate. With clearing skies and calm winds, this will create an environment for some dense fog. Thus wherever the ambient temperature drops below freezing tonight will have the potential to see freezing fog. This should mainly be confined where the snow fell yesterday but could still certainly see some problems in our northern burbs where there was plenty of rain.

[tireman4]

We do have a pretty frost in Humble...

[tireman4]

240
FXUS64 KHGX 121055
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
455 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow Night]...

After a very cold start this morning (with some patchy fog), temper-
atures are expected to warm into the lower to mid 50s this afternoon
even with the abundant sun/clear skies. Another cold night is on tap
for tonight, but freezing/below freezing temperatures overnight will
likely be limited to our northern counties. Else, lows from the mid/
upper 30s are forecast for most inland locations...mid 40s along the
immediate coast. Temperatures will continue to warm through tomorrow
with highs around 60 with sunny/clear skies persisting.

All of this dry/quiet weather over SE TX is courtesy of surface high
pressure lingering over the state...even with the arrival/passage of
a well-defined upper level shortwave tomorrow. Not expecting much if
any precipitation with this feature given the overall lack of moist-
ure with the air mass already in place here. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday Night]...

A deep upper-level trough will bring in our next cold front on
Thursday night/Friday morning. Expecting this to be a dry FROPA
since PWATs are low (less than 0.5") and there will be too much
of a capping inversion thanks to a couple of days of southwesterly
winds to get anything popping. However, rain showers will be
possible offshore where there is a bit more moisture to work with.
The coldest of the air will skirt past us to the east, but that
doesn`t mean that we won`t be cold. Think of this as a cold air
reinforcer as it will give us another few nights with lows in the
30s. High pressure does build in behind the front, but it will
keep on moving eastward and put us back into onshore flow by
Saturday afternoon. Accordingly, high temperatures will be back
into the mid 60s.

Sunday is where things start to get interesting. Most global models
are in agreement on a shortwave trough swinging in from the
northwest sometime on Sunday (there is slight disagreement on the
exact timing). The GFS and Canadian both show the CWA in the right
entrance region of a jet streak. This is combined with elevated
theta-e (higher instability) and PWATs around 0.75"-1.0". So with
Sunday`s front, rain can be expected. Might be wondering why I
haven`t mentioned the Euro yet. That`s because its solution is quite
a bit different. The shortwave trough is slower and weakens as it
approaches the CWA. Moisture availability is less as well with PWATs
around 0.5" and it is not indicating that there will be much
instability in place. Long story short, the Euro is running dry with
this front. Leaning towards the GFS/Canada, so rain chances have
been added for the latter half of the weekend. High pressure briefly
builds in on Monday and after this is where models diverge once
again. The Canadian and the Euro show an area of low pressure
developing over the southern tip of Texas along with high PWATs
around 1.5". Favorable jet mechanics along with a theta-e ridge that
stays with us through Wednesday. As a result, we`re looking at a
rainy start to next week. 26

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure over the Hill Country/N TX will slide south today and
be over SETX tonight/Wednesday then move south into the Gulf. Winds
today over the Gulf will be northerly though some wobble to the
northeast is possible late this afternoon then back to the northwest
overnight albeit much lighter. Winds becoming southwesterly early
Thursday morning in advance of the cold front. Winds should
strengthen and get gusty. The cold front pushes off the coast. Rain
chances look slim near the coast though do increase over the 20-60nm
waters as the front pushes through out there. Thursday evening and
winds should quickly accelerate and SCA conditions develop with
persistent offshore through Friday. Low water advisory conditions
will be possible Friday during the day. Another cold front arrives
Sunday and may have a greater availability of moisture with it and
potentially a greater chance of showers or even thunderstorms.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
Patchy fog this morning with 4-6SM VISBY should be ending quickly
around 14z. Mostly sunny to sunny skies this morning then both
high/mid cloud on the increase this afternoon as the upper trough
over W Tx approaches. Although some lift is present in the mid
levels the column looks dry below and any rain should become virga.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 50 34 60 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 52 37 60 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 51 44 58 50 65 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121729
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1129 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

.AVIATION...

Increasing mid/high level clouds will continue to spread across the
area this afternoon (generally from S to N) with BKN/OVC decks 8000-10000
feet. Majority of the area will stay VFR with just this deck, but we
are monitoring Hill County area of precip/lightning that is making progress
toward the CLL area. For now, have added VCSH to their TAF for a couple
hours this afternoon. Light winds areawide for the rest of the day and
on through tonight. Decreasing clouds and eventually clearing out tomorrow
morning with mainly light SW to W winds eventually setting up. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021/

SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow Night]...

After a very cold start this morning (with some patchy fog), temper-
atures are expected to warm into the lower to mid 50s this afternoon
even with the abundant sun/clear skies. Another cold night is on tap
for tonight, but freezing/below freezing temperatures overnight will
likely be limited to our northern counties. Else, lows from the mid/
upper 30s are forecast for most inland locations...mid 40s along the
immediate coast. Temperatures will continue to warm through tomorrow
with highs around 60 with sunny/clear skies persisting.

All of this dry/quiet weather over SE TX is courtesy of surface high
pressure lingering over the state...even with the arrival/passage of
a well-defined upper level shortwave tomorrow. Not expecting much if
any precipitation with this feature given the overall lack of moist-
ure with the air mass already in place here. 41

LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday Night]...

A deep upper-level trough will bring in our next cold front on
Thursday night/Friday morning. Expecting this to be a dry FROPA
since PWATs are low (less than 0.5") and there will be too much
of a capping inversion thanks to a couple of days of southwesterly
winds to get anything popping. However, rain showers will be
possible offshore where there is a bit more moisture to work with.
The coldest of the air will skirt past us to the east, but that
doesn`t mean that we won`t be cold. Think of this as a cold air
reinforcer as it will give us another few nights with lows in the
30s. High pressure does build in behind the front, but it will
keep on moving eastward and put us back into onshore flow by
Saturday afternoon. Accordingly, high temperatures will be back
into the mid 60s.

Sunday is where things start to get interesting. Most global models
are in agreement on a shortwave trough swinging in from the
northwest sometime on Sunday (there is slight disagreement on the
exact timing). The GFS and Canadian both show the CWA in the right
entrance region of a jet streak. This is combined with elevated
theta-e (higher instability) and PWATs around 0.75"-1.0". So with
Sunday`s front, rain can be expected. Might be wondering why I
haven`t mentioned the Euro yet. That`s because its solution is quite
a bit different. The shortwave trough is slower and weakens as it
approaches the CWA. Moisture availability is less as well with PWATs
around 0.5" and it is not indicating that there will be much
instability in place. Long story short, the Euro is running dry with
this front. Leaning towards the GFS/Canada, so rain chances have
been added for the latter half of the weekend. High pressure briefly
builds in on Monday and after this is where models diverge once
again. The Canadian and the Euro show an area of low pressure
developing over the southern tip of Texas along with high PWATs
around 1.5". Favorable jet mechanics along with a theta-e ridge that
stays with us through Wednesday. As a result, we`re looking at a
rainy start to next week. 26

MARINE...

High pressure over the Hill Country/N TX will slide south today and
be over SETX tonight/Wednesday then move south into the Gulf. Winds
today over the Gulf will be northerly though some wobble to the
northeast is possible late this afternoon then back to the northwest
overnight albeit much lighter. Winds becoming southwesterly early
Thursday morning in advance of the cold front. Winds should
strengthen and get gusty. The cold front pushes off the coast. Rain
chances look slim near the coast though do increase over the 20-60nm
waters as the front pushes through out there. Thursday evening and
winds should quickly accelerate and SCA conditions develop with
persistent offshore through Friday. Low water advisory conditions
will be possible Friday during the day. Another cold front arrives
Sunday and may have a greater availability of moisture with it and
potentially a greater chance of showers or even thunderstorms.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 50 34 60 38 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 52 37 60 39 68 / 10 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 51 44 58 50 65 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

[jasons2k]

Had a low of 29. My red cloaks took a beating. They will definitely have to be pruned back. Fortunately the wind calmed down enough to keep everything covered that I was able to cover and save.

Watching the radar. Maybe a few sleet pellets today?

[TXWeatherMan]

Had a low of 29. My red cloaks took a beating. They will definitely have to be pruned back. Fortunately the wind calmed down enough to keep everything covered that I was able to cover and save.

Watching the radar. Maybe a few sleet pellets today?

Just got some sleet near Lake Conroe

[Cromagnum]

Looks like the next wintry event fell apart? Forecast isn't for much cold in the next week and its pretty quiet on here now.

[kyzsl51]

Probably....but one thing that looks encouraging is that our source regions will get loaded with some really cold arctic air here in the next 10 days. Time will tell which direction it heads.

[Cpv17]

Looks like the next wintry event fell apart? Forecast isn't for much cold in the next week and its pretty quiet on here now.

Not necessarily. The models are having fits trying to figure out and piece together next week along with the teleconnections. We’ll know more by this weekend for next week. I think we could be in for something major over the next couple months.

[snowman65]

I keep seeing news about this polar vortex split causing major cold outbreaks, blah blah blah, but I dont see anything special, even for the N.E.....

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131006
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
406 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021


.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow Night]...

Areas of weak precipitation are continuing to move E/NE out of the
CWA at this time. This activity (associated with a short-wave that
tracked across the state yesterday) will also be taking the broken
and overcast clouds with it through the rest of this morning. High
temperatures today should be warmer (upper 50s to lower 60s)...but
likely even warmer tomorrow (mid 60s to lower 70s) via the develop-
ing SW winds at the lower/mid levels.

The next cold front is still progged to push off the coast late tom-
orrow afternoon/evening. Despite the miss on yesterdays forecast of
graupel/light rain, will be keeping with the idea of limited to nil
POPs with FROPA over inland areas given the strong cap and an over-
all lack of moisture. Cooler/drier air filtering into the CWA in the
wake of the front should support lows from the mid to upper 30s for
inland locations and mid 40s at the immediate coast tomorrow night.

41

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday morning through Wednesday night]...

CAA through northwesterly winds will be present throughout the day
on Friday following the passage of Thursday night`s cold front.
Steep lapse rates and unidirectional wind flow aloft will likely get
some mixing going and bring gusty winds down to the surface on
Friday afternoon. Winds relax a bit and become more westerly on
Friday night, so dew points will remain down in the 20s. What does
this mean? Another frigid night is in store for us with our northern
counties flirting with freezing temperatures. High pressure moves in
on Saturday afternoon and sticks around through Monday. We won`t
have much of a pressure gradient in this time period, so winds will
be on the light side but favoring the northeasterly direction for
flow. Let`s backtrack really quick to Sunday. Models are in
agreement on a shortwave trough swinging through the area on Sunday
afternoon. The combination of low instability and low PWATs will
slightly put a hamper on things. Theta-E looks much less impressive
compared to yesterday`s model runs. Upper-level convergence looks to
be favorable enough to squeeze out some scattered rain showers, but
the better chances for this will be in the southern half of the CWA.

High pressure moves off to the east late on Monday and puts us back
into onshore flow. This will increase our moisture going into
midweek. That`s an important note because models are in agreement on
an area of low pressure developing in south Texas on Tuesday. The
low will drift slowly to the northeast along the coastline. This
combined with Theta-E ridging, PWATs around 1.5", a prolonged stay
beneath the right entrance region of a jet streak, and a
convergence boundary setting up over the northern CWA means that
rain will be likely into Wednesday. A shortwave trough moves in on
Wednesday and pushes the low out of the area to the east. A cold
front will move through the area as a parting gift from the low.
This front will not have any significant cold air behind it, but
it will allow us to have another couple of nights of sweater
weather.

26

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR. Some patchy fog possible Thursday morning over the south if
it doesn`t mix out the shallow moisture.

45

&&

.MARINE...

Weak high pressure over S TX/Coastal Bend will slip out into the
Gulf and today and continue eastward tonight/Thursday swinging winds
from NW to SW. During the day Thursday southwesterly flow will
strengthen with the approach of the cold front. The front should
push off the coast Thursday evening with northerly winds of 15 to 25
knots and SCA conditions developing. Winds should diminish Friday
night/early Saturday though the wind profile aloft may support
strong winds into Saturday mid morning. Low tide/water levels
conditions looking likely Friday 3 am through Saturday afternoon.
High pressure eventually pushes out over SETX/NW Gulf Saturday night
then eastward to FL by Monday evening. This will in turn open up the
Gulf for business. Moderate onshore flow steadily moistens up Monday
and probably sets the stage for the first sea fog event Monday night
through Tuesday. Next cold front looks potent for storms with all
the moisture over the region Tuesday night/Wednesday.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 58 38 65 36 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 60 40 68 39 58 / 0 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 57 51 67 47 58 / 0 0 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$