January 2021
- srainhoutx
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Re: January 2021
The CMC is doing a lot better since its upgrade. I also encourage folks to check out the new GFS Para or GFS v16 which is now running 4 cycles a day during its testing period before going operational later this year.
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Re: January 2021
GFS-Para has a track of snow, but a little north of yesterday's event. So, nothing yet.
NOAA and TWC were late to the party, although NOAA was on board 48 hours beforehand.
This far out, just a little error means a wide divergence in the outcome.
Re: January 2021
Briefly, we didn't get much melting until beginning about 10 am. . Our son left for Minnesota and away from the snow...
just before 11:30 when Hwy 6 to Waco should be clear on the bridge. It was pretty slippery this morning with that wet, mushy snow - think moving ice. I suggesting waiting 90 min at 10 pm not because he would have difficulty, but Texans don't get snowy/icy conditions.
The sun came out about 15 minutes ago and leveraging some reduction in albedo the snow is finally melting significantly.

just before 11:30 when Hwy 6 to Waco should be clear on the bridge. It was pretty slippery this morning with that wet, mushy snow - think moving ice. I suggesting waiting 90 min at 10 pm not because he would have difficulty, but Texans don't get snowy/icy conditions.
The sun came out about 15 minutes ago and leveraging some reduction in albedo the snow is finally melting significantly.
Re: January 2021
The 12z Euro doesn’t have any snow but it has a lot of rain around here next Monday and Tuesday. It has the system now it just needs to find the cold.
- tireman4
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Re: January 2021
Not to overstate this, but remember to channel your inner Srain and Wxman 57
1. Watch the source regions for cold
2. Usually 3-5 days out are the target points
3. Models will lose systems within the 7/8 day range ( and even in the 5 day range)
4. The trend is your friend
1. Watch the source regions for cold
2. Usually 3-5 days out are the target points
3. Models will lose systems within the 7/8 day range ( and even in the 5 day range)
4. The trend is your friend
Re: January 2021
I agree, however the trend on the GFS lately is not good.tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:17 pmNot to overstate this, but remember to channel your inner Srain and Wxman 57
1. Watch the source regions for cold
2. Usually 3-5 days out are the target points
3. Models will lose systems within the 7/8 day range ( and even in the 5 day range)
4. The trend is your friend

Re: January 2021
NWS dropped my forecast low down to 28. I just got in from covering the plants and it's pretty chilly out there. The wind is still going too so I don't know how much good the blankets will do. All that and I didn't even get some snow to show for it.
- srainhoutx
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Re: January 2021
Be aware of a possibility of Freezing Fog tomorrow morning mainly N of I-10. If it develops, travel troubles particularly on elevated roads could be an issue.
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Re: January 2021
I dont believe I've ever dealt with freezing fog down here. Although the air is the cold, is it just because the ground is saturated with slightly warmer water?srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:56 pmBe aware of a possibility of Freezing Fog tomorrow morning mainly N of I-10. If it develops, travel troubles particularly on elevated roads could be an issue.
- Belmer
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Re: January 2021
FZFG is rare down here because when when we do dip below freezing behind a trough, the air is usually much drier and/or a breeze that mixes the air (and we usually don't have residual snowfall). Although much of the snow has already melted off, there's still plenty of moisture from the melt and on top of the rainfall we received. The air temperature will fall near the dew point (30-32º) and the air will saturate. With clearing skies and calm winds, this will create an environment for some dense fog. Thus wherever the ambient temperature drops below freezing tonight will have the potential to see freezing fog. This should mainly be confined where the snow fell yesterday but could still certainly see some problems in our northern burbs where there was plenty of rain.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:45 pmI dont believe I've ever dealt with freezing fog down here. Although the air is the cold, is it just because the ground is saturated with slightly warmer water?srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:56 pmBe aware of a possibility of Freezing Fog tomorrow morning mainly N of I-10. If it develops, travel troubles particularly on elevated roads could be an issue.
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