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don wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:50 pm 0z Global models are already sniffing out another winter storm next weekend.

That should be interesting.

don wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:50 pm 0z Global models are already sniffing out another winter storm next weekend.

Yep! That’s what I’ve been talking about. I’m waiting for the Euro to jump onboard.

don wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:50 pm 0z Global models are already sniffing out another winter storm next weekend.

South of I10 only this time.

Next Sunday looks very similar to this storm. We’ll see what happens. I think this one was a huge let down across the board. The GFS and Euro definitely scored big.

One thing that surprised me is at my house it went from rain, to all sleet to all snow for 5 minutes and then back to rain and stayed rain. The melting zone/warm nose was pronounced. Montgomery County southward never stood a chance.

Furthermore, anybody who believes the NAM or WRF models (which admittedly i mentioned on my Twitter/on-air deserves to have the football pulled.

We wasted a lot of snow trying to cool the ground enough for accumulations and the transition to snow occurred near peak heating slowing the accumulation process. Convective banding didn’t really come to fruition either.

Just goes to show that getting a good snow here is an extremely complicated hat trick. 1-3” (3-5” in CS) is a far cry from 6, 8 or 10 inches. I feel dumb for even remotely paying it attention.

Looking at pics on social media.

The blocking going on around Greenland, Nunavut, and the Northwest Territories is going to be pretty crazy over the next few weeks. It should provide some interesting times around here the next month or two.

KHOU BLake wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:46 pm Next Sunday looks very similar to this storm. We’ll see what happens. I think this one was a huge let down across the board. The GFS and Euro definitely scored big.

One thing that surprised me is at my house it went from rain, to all sleet to all snow for 5 minutes and then back to rain and stayed rain. The melting zone/warm nose was pronounced. Montgomery County southward never stood a chance.

Furthermore, anybody who believes the NAM or WRF models (which admittedly i mentioned on my Twitter/on-air deserves to have the football pulled.

We wasted a lot of snow trying to cool the ground enough for accumulations and the transition to snow occurred near peak heating slowing the accumulation process. Convective banding didn’t really come to fruition either.

Just goes to show that getting a good snow here is an extremely complicated hat trick. 1-3” (3-5” in CS) is a far cry from 6, 8 or 10 inches. I feel dumb for even remotely paying it attention.

I feel your pain. I don't think there will ever be win-win for meteorologist here in Houston when it comes to winter precip. The dynamics that have to come into play are rare. And when they do happen, you end up downplaying the situation from previous burns and then end up still in the same hole.

NAM generally does a great job and I still think it performed fairly well overall (discounting the 10:1 snow ratio output). NAM is often good at sniffing up where banding/training occurs 36-48 hours out so it's a good tool to use as long as its consistent with an axis of heavy precip somewhere, regardless if it fluctuates in location. 6" was recorded in Madisonville and even reports of 7-8" amounts in isolated areas south of Dallas (should get verified totals tomorrow). That WAA at the 850-750mb level just couldn't cool in time while the precip was falling. If the column could have cooled about two hours earlier than it did up in CLL and Madisonville, I think we would be looking at 8"+ with how saturated it was. The only thing I can think of why it went from rain/snow/rain at your house is maybe a quick downburst that temporary cooled the shallow warm layer aloft.

You can always go back and look at the what if's with these type of setups. So with that said, if the ULL had dug a little deeper say to San Angelo/Brownwood or have that surface low nudged about 50-100 miles to the south, it would have been a real treat for much of Houston.

NOT getting my hopes up next Sunday. Didnt even get 1 sleet pellet. Im gonna go outside and throw some ice cubes in the air and left them fall on my tin roof. Maybe that will make me feel better.

Now I feel better...

Yep the problem with having such a saturated profile is that it left little room for wet bulbing. Which made the warm nose harder to erode.The pattern we're in is ripe for more winter weather opportunities atleast.

Even on the NAM the 540 thickness line was still to the NW of here...easy clue.

We still could have had snow without the 540 line,if we had enough dry air for evaporative cooling to cool the air column.Of course without the 540 line its alot harder to get snow down here though.As far as the NAM totals, people need to remember that the snow totals especially on tropical tidbits for some reason includes sleet,and will sometimes show high accumulations because its mixing snow/sleet/rain together in its snow qpf.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CST Mon Jan 11 2021


.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
Well that was fun. We`re still collecting snowfall totals across
the region, so if anyone has any to share, shoot us a message on
social media or give the office a call so we can document this
event.

Otherwise, anticipate mcldy and cold conditions today with moisture
remaining trapped under the llvl inversion. Guidance indicates we
should see some partial scattering/clearing overnight but overall
confidence in this actually occurring is somewhat low. Still
expect most locations, with the exception of the beaches, to see
an overnight freeze.

Stout shortwave seen on wv imagery near AZ should dig southward into
Mexico then move across across the state late Tue and Tue night.
It should bring some mid level cloudiness with it. Also wouldn`t
be surprised to see some radar returns, but with a dry sub-cloud
layer in place, it should be mainly virga and am not advertising
any mentionable POPs. 47

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
With surface high pressure still atop the region and a more SW low-
level flow setting up, warmer temperatures will be in order for both
Weds and Thurs afternoons. Highs in the lower to mid 60s Weds could
reach the upper 60s on Thurs. Models are keeping with the idea of a
fairly well-defined upper low/trof moving east across the state Weds
followed by a cold front Thurs night/early Fri morning. Not expect-
ing any significant POPs with this boundary given the strong cap and
lack of moisture over inland portions of the FA. Isolated to widely
scattered activity developing with this line will be possible as it
moves into the Gulf waters. This dry pattern along with a return of
colder temperatures expected Fri/Sat. Long-range global models seem
to be hinting that some low POPs may need to be reintroduced in the
grids for Sun. Another strong shortwave moving in from the W/NW and
progs of PWs approaching 1" could support this if this does verify.
41

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
The winter precipitation has moved out of the region and we are
left with IFR/MVFR ceilings for most of the area airports. There
may be a few instances of the ceilings improving to MVFR/VFR, but
anticipating the ceilings dropping again later this morning. This
is evident on satellite imagery with dry air being mixed in to
raise cloud ceilings to 5,000 ft, but upstream of this are more
IFR/MVFR ceilings. These conditions are expected to last through
the nighttime hours. Northerly winds around 10 knots will persist
through the early afternoon before becoming light and variable on
Monday evening as high pressure moves overhead. Monday night is
where the forecast gets a bit complicated. A few high-res models
are indicating that clouds will break up just enough at the
northern airports (CLL, UTS, CXO) in the late evening hours for a
little bit of radiational cooling. With saturated soils and light
winds, there may be enough radiational cooling for fog to develop.
Threw in IFR ceilings and BR at these three airports for now
after 08-09Z to establish the trend. Further south, fog is not
expected to be an issue as of right now but as we all know, things
can change. 26

&&

.MARINE...
Strong northerly winds 20-25 knots continue to prevail in the Gulf
waters. The Gale Warning has been scaled back to a SCA through
Monday evening. Over in the Bays, winds are still just over 20 knots
with gusts near 25 knots, so will let the SCA continue into the late
morning hours. Wind speeds will gradually fall throughout the day
and drop below SCA criteria by Monday morning for the Bays and
Monday night for the Gulf waters. Elevated seas of 8-11 feet will
fall throughout the day on Monday as well as offshore winds continue
to persist. While the wind speeds will decrease, the wind direction
will remain northerly through the middle of next week. As a result,
daily low water advisories will be needed for Galveston Bay through
at least the first half of the week during low tides. The first one
will be in effect for this morning and lasting into the afternoon
hours. Looking ahead, a surface high moves through the area late on
Wednesday and slides southeastward into the central Gulf.
Afterwards, southwesterly winds will persist until the next cold
front moves through on Friday morning which will reintroduce
moderate offshore winds. 26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 40 28 46 33 58 / 0 0 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 45 32 49 35 59 / 0 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 46 38 48 44 58 / 0 0 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Low Water Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Galveston Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

The irony is on yesterday, when it started sleeting in the morning - I told my kids it was a sure thing we were gonna have snow -- but they were probably still going to school today.

And here we are. The snow didn't happen and yet my kids are home and sleeping-in. I'm really surprised Conroe ISD didn't opt for a 10am start instead of cancelling altogether. It's alright though - I will have the whole castle to myself on President's Day - hehe.

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:55 am NOT getting my hopes up next Sunday. Didnt even get 1 sleet pellet. Im gonna go outside and throw some ice cubes in the air and left them fall on my tin roof. Maybe that will make me feel better.

What are people seeing next weekend? I see lows in the 40s...

KHOU BLake wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:46 pm Next Sunday looks very similar to this storm. We’ll see what happens. I think this one was a huge let down across the board. The GFS and Euro definitely scored big.

One thing that surprised me is at my house it went from rain, to all sleet to all snow for 5 minutes and then back to rain and stayed rain. The melting zone/warm nose was pronounced. Montgomery County southward never stood a chance.

Furthermore, anybody who believes the NAM or WRF models (which admittedly i mentioned on my Twitter/on-air deserves to have the football pulled.

We wasted a lot of snow trying to cool the ground enough for accumulations and the transition to snow occurred near peak heating slowing the accumulation process. Convective banding didn’t really come to fruition either.

Just goes to show that getting a good snow here is an extremely complicated hat trick. 1-3” (3-5” in CS) is a far cry from 6, 8 or 10 inches. I feel dumb for even remotely paying it attention.

We had 4-6" in the Bryan-College Station area. This was a super heavy, wet snow that was closer to 6:1 than 10:1...so equivalent to 6-8 inches of snow. The NAM run just before the snow wasn't far off if we assume a 10:1 ratio, except for the extent of snow and sleet south. GFS had virtually no snow in BCS on the forecast. The Euro was pretty light...the Canadian model was closer, showing that rapid falloff on snow accumulation south of College Station and Navasota. They assumed a 10:1 ratio.

Here's the Canadian on Tuesday. When you're off by maybe 20-30 miles in a TX Winter storm, that's pretty good IMO.

BTW, the county just north of Beaumont saw snow last night.

I drove to College Station this morning about an hour from my house and I can confirm 4-6" of complete and total awesomeness here right now

KHOU BLake wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:46 pm Next Sunday looks very similar to this storm. We’ll see what happens. I think this one was a huge let down across the board. The GFS and Euro definitely scored big.

One thing that surprised me is at my house it went from rain, to all sleet to all snow for 5 minutes and then back to rain and stayed rain. The melting zone/warm nose was pronounced. Montgomery County southward never stood a chance.

Furthermore, anybody who believes the NAM or WRF models (which admittedly i mentioned on my Twitter/on-air deserves to have the football pulled.

We wasted a lot of snow trying to cool the ground enough for accumulations and the transition to snow occurred near peak heating slowing the accumulation process. Convective banding didn’t really come to fruition either.

Just goes to show that getting a good snow here is an extremely complicated hat trick. 1-3” (3-5” in CS) is a far cry from 6, 8 or 10 inches. I feel dumb for even remotely paying it attention.

Blake - thanks for taking the time to log on and give us your thoughts. I think we were all hoping for the column to really cool down, but snow and Texas (especially this far south) is a finicky mistress. Will be interesting to see what happens with the next system, but I'll reserve any excitement until I see it falling from the sky . It sure is nice though to get some solidly cold temps.

I will say it's dang impressive to see the totals for those folks that did get in on the action. There's quite a nice white streak right through the heart of the state on satellite.

txbear wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:39 am

KHOU BLake wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:46 pm Next Sunday looks very similar to this storm. We’ll see what happens. I think this one was a huge let down across the board. The GFS and Euro definitely scored big.

One thing that surprised me is at my house it went from rain, to all sleet to all snow for 5 minutes and then back to rain and stayed rain. The melting zone/warm nose was pronounced. Montgomery County southward never stood a chance.

Furthermore, anybody who believes the NAM or WRF models (which admittedly i mentioned on my Twitter/on-air deserves to have the football pulled.

We wasted a lot of snow trying to cool the ground enough for accumulations and the transition to snow occurred near peak heating slowing the accumulation process. Convective banding didn’t really come to fruition either.

Just goes to show that getting a good snow here is an extremely complicated hat trick. 1-3” (3-5” in CS) is a far cry from 6, 8 or 10 inches. I feel dumb for even remotely paying it attention.

Blake - thanks for taking the time to log on and give us your thoughts. I think we were all hoping for the column to really cool down, but snow and Texas (especially this far south) is a finicky mistress. Will be interesting to see what happens with the next system, but I'll reserve any excitement until I see it falling from the sky . It sure is nice though to get some solidly cold temps.

I will say it's dang impressive to see the totals for those folks that did get in on the action. There's quite a nice white streak right through the heart of the state on satellite.

Bobby Johnston
@BobbyJohnstonWX
Low clouds (outlined in gray) beginning to diminish and the snow swath appearing on Satellite imagery (outlined in blue). As you can tell the track of the system brought snow across a good section of Texas.
@fox34

Compare this with the Canadian model above...Not bad.

Yeah the Canadian gets overlooked too much, its much better now than it use to be.