January 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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Re: January 2021

Post by Ptarmigan » Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:06 pm

don wrote:
Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:50 pm
0z Global models are already sniffing out another winter storm next weekend. :P
That should be interesting.

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Re: January 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:26 pm

don wrote:
Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:50 pm
0z Global models are already sniffing out another winter storm next weekend. :P
Yep! That’s what I’ve been talking about. I’m waiting for the Euro to jump onboard.

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Re: January 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:44 pm

don wrote:
Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:50 pm
0z Global models are already sniffing out another winter storm next weekend. :P
South of I10 only this time.

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Re: January 2021

Post by KHOU BLake » Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:46 pm

Next Sunday looks very similar to this storm. We’ll see what happens. I think this one was a huge let down across the board. The GFS and Euro definitely scored big.

One thing that surprised me is at my house it went from rain, to all sleet to all snow for 5 minutes and then back to rain and stayed rain. The melting zone/warm nose was pronounced. Montgomery County southward never stood a chance.

Furthermore, anybody who believes the NAM or WRF models (which admittedly i mentioned on my Twitter/on-air deserves to have the football pulled.

We wasted a lot of snow trying to cool the ground enough for accumulations and the transition to snow occurred near peak heating slowing the accumulation process. Convective banding didn’t really come to fruition either.

Just goes to show that getting a good snow here is an extremely complicated hat trick. 1-3” (3-5” in CS) is a far cry from 6, 8 or 10 inches. I feel dumb for even remotely paying it attention.

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Re: January 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:58 pm

Looking at pics on social media.

Image

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Re: January 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:07 am

The blocking going on around Greenland, Nunavut, and the Northwest Territories is going to be pretty crazy over the next few weeks. It should provide some interesting times around here the next month or two.

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Re: January 2021

Post by Belmer » Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:21 am

KHOU BLake wrote:
Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:46 pm
Next Sunday looks very similar to this storm. We’ll see what happens. I think this one was a huge let down across the board. The GFS and Euro definitely scored big.

One thing that surprised me is at my house it went from rain, to all sleet to all snow for 5 minutes and then back to rain and stayed rain. The melting zone/warm nose was pronounced. Montgomery County southward never stood a chance.

Furthermore, anybody who believes the NAM or WRF models (which admittedly i mentioned on my Twitter/on-air deserves to have the football pulled.

We wasted a lot of snow trying to cool the ground enough for accumulations and the transition to snow occurred near peak heating slowing the accumulation process. Convective banding didn’t really come to fruition either.

Just goes to show that getting a good snow here is an extremely complicated hat trick. 1-3” (3-5” in CS) is a far cry from 6, 8 or 10 inches. I feel dumb for even remotely paying it attention.
I feel your pain. I don't think there will ever be win-win for meteorologist here in Houston when it comes to winter precip. The dynamics that have to come into play are rare. And when they do happen, you end up downplaying the situation from previous burns and then end up still in the same hole.

NAM generally does a great job and I still think it performed fairly well overall (discounting the 10:1 snow ratio output). NAM is often good at sniffing up where banding/training occurs 36-48 hours out so it's a good tool to use as long as its consistent with an axis of heavy precip somewhere, regardless if it fluctuates in location. 6" was recorded in Madisonville and even reports of 7-8" amounts in isolated areas south of Dallas (should get verified totals tomorrow). That WAA at the 850-750mb level just couldn't cool in time while the precip was falling. If the column could have cooled about two hours earlier than it did up in CLL and Madisonville, I think we would be looking at 8"+ with how saturated it was. The only thing I can think of why it went from rain/snow/rain at your house is maybe a quick downburst that temporary cooled the shallow warm layer aloft.

You can always go back and look at the what if's with these type of setups. So with that said, if the ULL had dug a little deeper say to San Angelo/Brownwood or have that surface low nudged about 50-100 miles to the south, it would have been a real treat for much of Houston.
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Re: January 2021

Post by djmike » Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:55 am

NOT getting my hopes up next Sunday. Didnt even get 1 sleet pellet. Im gonna go outside and throw some ice cubes in the air and left them fall on my tin roof. Maybe that will make me feel better. 😂
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Re: January 2021

Post by djmike » Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:01 am

Now I feel better...
63CB7CF4-3249-4771-A301-8653F60C8DFC.jpeg
Mike
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Re: January 2021

Post by don » Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:44 am

Yep the problem with having such a saturated profile is that it left little room for wet bulbing. Which made the warm nose harder to erode.The pattern we're in is ripe for more winter weather opportunities atleast. 😉

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