January 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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We do have a pretty frost in Humble...:)
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tireman4
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240
FXUS64 KHGX 121055
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
455 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow Night]...

After a very cold start this morning (with some patchy fog), temper-
atures are expected to warm into the lower to mid 50s this afternoon
even with the abundant sun/clear skies. Another cold night is on tap
for tonight, but freezing/below freezing temperatures overnight will
likely be limited to our northern counties. Else, lows from the mid/
upper 30s are forecast for most inland locations...mid 40s along the
immediate coast. Temperatures will continue to warm through tomorrow
with highs around 60 with sunny/clear skies persisting.

All of this dry/quiet weather over SE TX is courtesy of surface high
pressure lingering over the state...even with the arrival/passage of
a well-defined upper level shortwave tomorrow. Not expecting much if
any precipitation with this feature given the overall lack of moist-
ure with the air mass already in place here. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday Night]...

A deep upper-level trough will bring in our next cold front on
Thursday night/Friday morning. Expecting this to be a dry FROPA
since PWATs are low (less than 0.5") and there will be too much
of a capping inversion thanks to a couple of days of southwesterly
winds to get anything popping. However, rain showers will be
possible offshore where there is a bit more moisture to work with.
The coldest of the air will skirt past us to the east, but that
doesn`t mean that we won`t be cold. Think of this as a cold air
reinforcer as it will give us another few nights with lows in the
30s. High pressure does build in behind the front, but it will
keep on moving eastward and put us back into onshore flow by
Saturday afternoon. Accordingly, high temperatures will be back
into the mid 60s.

Sunday is where things start to get interesting. Most global models
are in agreement on a shortwave trough swinging in from the
northwest sometime on Sunday (there is slight disagreement on the
exact timing). The GFS and Canadian both show the CWA in the right
entrance region of a jet streak. This is combined with elevated
theta-e (higher instability) and PWATs around 0.75"-1.0". So with
Sunday`s front, rain can be expected. Might be wondering why I
haven`t mentioned the Euro yet. That`s because its solution is quite
a bit different. The shortwave trough is slower and weakens as it
approaches the CWA. Moisture availability is less as well with PWATs
around 0.5" and it is not indicating that there will be much
instability in place. Long story short, the Euro is running dry with
this front. Leaning towards the GFS/Canada, so rain chances have
been added for the latter half of the weekend. High pressure briefly
builds in on Monday and after this is where models diverge once
again. The Canadian and the Euro show an area of low pressure
developing over the southern tip of Texas along with high PWATs
around 1.5". Favorable jet mechanics along with a theta-e ridge that
stays with us through Wednesday. As a result, we`re looking at a
rainy start to next week. 26

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure over the Hill Country/N TX will slide south today and
be over SETX tonight/Wednesday then move south into the Gulf. Winds
today over the Gulf will be northerly though some wobble to the
northeast is possible late this afternoon then back to the northwest
overnight albeit much lighter. Winds becoming southwesterly early
Thursday morning in advance of the cold front. Winds should
strengthen and get gusty. The cold front pushes off the coast. Rain
chances look slim near the coast though do increase over the 20-60nm
waters as the front pushes through out there. Thursday evening and
winds should quickly accelerate and SCA conditions develop with
persistent offshore through Friday. Low water advisory conditions
will be possible Friday during the day. Another cold front arrives
Sunday and may have a greater availability of moisture with it and
potentially a greater chance of showers or even thunderstorms.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
Patchy fog this morning with 4-6SM VISBY should be ending quickly
around 14z. Mostly sunny to sunny skies this morning then both
high/mid cloud on the increase this afternoon as the upper trough
over W Tx approaches. Although some lift is present in the mid
levels the column looks dry below and any rain should become virga.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 50 34 60 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 52 37 60 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 51 44 58 50 65 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 121729
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1129 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

.AVIATION...

Increasing mid/high level clouds will continue to spread across the
area this afternoon (generally from S to N) with BKN/OVC decks 8000-10000
feet. Majority of the area will stay VFR with just this deck, but we
are monitoring Hill County area of precip/lightning that is making progress
toward the CLL area. For now, have added VCSH to their TAF for a couple
hours this afternoon. Light winds areawide for the rest of the day and
on through tonight. Decreasing clouds and eventually clearing out tomorrow
morning with mainly light SW to W winds eventually setting up. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021/

SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow Night]...

After a very cold start this morning (with some patchy fog), temper-
atures are expected to warm into the lower to mid 50s this afternoon
even with the abundant sun/clear skies. Another cold night is on tap
for tonight, but freezing/below freezing temperatures overnight will
likely be limited to our northern counties. Else, lows from the mid/
upper 30s are forecast for most inland locations...mid 40s along the
immediate coast. Temperatures will continue to warm through tomorrow
with highs around 60 with sunny/clear skies persisting.

All of this dry/quiet weather over SE TX is courtesy of surface high
pressure lingering over the state...even with the arrival/passage of
a well-defined upper level shortwave tomorrow. Not expecting much if
any precipitation with this feature given the overall lack of moist-
ure with the air mass already in place here. 41

LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday Night]...

A deep upper-level trough will bring in our next cold front on
Thursday night/Friday morning. Expecting this to be a dry FROPA
since PWATs are low (less than 0.5") and there will be too much
of a capping inversion thanks to a couple of days of southwesterly
winds to get anything popping. However, rain showers will be
possible offshore where there is a bit more moisture to work with.
The coldest of the air will skirt past us to the east, but that
doesn`t mean that we won`t be cold. Think of this as a cold air
reinforcer as it will give us another few nights with lows in the
30s. High pressure does build in behind the front, but it will
keep on moving eastward and put us back into onshore flow by
Saturday afternoon. Accordingly, high temperatures will be back
into the mid 60s.

Sunday is where things start to get interesting. Most global models
are in agreement on a shortwave trough swinging in from the
northwest sometime on Sunday (there is slight disagreement on the
exact timing). The GFS and Canadian both show the CWA in the right
entrance region of a jet streak. This is combined with elevated
theta-e (higher instability) and PWATs around 0.75"-1.0". So with
Sunday`s front, rain can be expected. Might be wondering why I
haven`t mentioned the Euro yet. That`s because its solution is quite
a bit different. The shortwave trough is slower and weakens as it
approaches the CWA. Moisture availability is less as well with PWATs
around 0.5" and it is not indicating that there will be much
instability in place. Long story short, the Euro is running dry with
this front. Leaning towards the GFS/Canada, so rain chances have
been added for the latter half of the weekend. High pressure briefly
builds in on Monday and after this is where models diverge once
again. The Canadian and the Euro show an area of low pressure
developing over the southern tip of Texas along with high PWATs
around 1.5". Favorable jet mechanics along with a theta-e ridge that
stays with us through Wednesday. As a result, we`re looking at a
rainy start to next week. 26

MARINE...

High pressure over the Hill Country/N TX will slide south today and
be over SETX tonight/Wednesday then move south into the Gulf. Winds
today over the Gulf will be northerly though some wobble to the
northeast is possible late this afternoon then back to the northwest
overnight albeit much lighter. Winds becoming southwesterly early
Thursday morning in advance of the cold front. Winds should
strengthen and get gusty. The cold front pushes off the coast. Rain
chances look slim near the coast though do increase over the 20-60nm
waters as the front pushes through out there. Thursday evening and
winds should quickly accelerate and SCA conditions develop with
persistent offshore through Friday. Low water advisory conditions
will be possible Friday during the day. Another cold front arrives
Sunday and may have a greater availability of moisture with it and
potentially a greater chance of showers or even thunderstorms.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 50 34 60 38 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 52 37 60 39 68 / 10 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 51 44 58 50 65 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
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jasons2k
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Had a low of 29. My red cloaks took a beating. They will definitely have to be pruned back. Fortunately the wind calmed down enough to keep everything covered that I was able to cover and save.

Watching the radar. Maybe a few sleet pellets today?
TXWeatherMan
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:01 pm Had a low of 29. My red cloaks took a beating. They will definitely have to be pruned back. Fortunately the wind calmed down enough to keep everything covered that I was able to cover and save.

Watching the radar. Maybe a few sleet pellets today?
Just got some sleet near Lake Conroe
Cromagnum
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Looks like the next wintry event fell apart? Forecast isn't for much cold in the next week and its pretty quiet on here now.
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Probably....but one thing that looks encouraging is that our source regions will get loaded with some really cold arctic air here in the next 10 days. Time will tell which direction it heads.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:39 am Looks like the next wintry event fell apart? Forecast isn't for much cold in the next week and its pretty quiet on here now.
Not necessarily. The models are having fits trying to figure out and piece together next week along with the teleconnections. We’ll know more by this weekend for next week. I think we could be in for something major over the next couple months.
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snowman65
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I keep seeing news about this polar vortex split causing major cold outbreaks, blah blah blah, but I dont see anything special, even for the N.E.....
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 131006
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
406 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021


.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow Night]...

Areas of weak precipitation are continuing to move E/NE out of the
CWA at this time. This activity (associated with a short-wave that
tracked across the state yesterday) will also be taking the broken
and overcast clouds with it through the rest of this morning. High
temperatures today should be warmer (upper 50s to lower 60s)...but
likely even warmer tomorrow (mid 60s to lower 70s) via the develop-
ing SW winds at the lower/mid levels.

The next cold front is still progged to push off the coast late tom-
orrow afternoon/evening. Despite the miss on yesterdays forecast of
graupel/light rain, will be keeping with the idea of limited to nil
POPs with FROPA over inland areas given the strong cap and an over-
all lack of moisture. Cooler/drier air filtering into the CWA in the
wake of the front should support lows from the mid to upper 30s for
inland locations and mid 40s at the immediate coast tomorrow night.

41

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday morning through Wednesday night]...

CAA through northwesterly winds will be present throughout the day
on Friday following the passage of Thursday night`s cold front.
Steep lapse rates and unidirectional wind flow aloft will likely get
some mixing going and bring gusty winds down to the surface on
Friday afternoon. Winds relax a bit and become more westerly on
Friday night, so dew points will remain down in the 20s. What does
this mean? Another frigid night is in store for us with our northern
counties flirting with freezing temperatures. High pressure moves in
on Saturday afternoon and sticks around through Monday. We won`t
have much of a pressure gradient in this time period, so winds will
be on the light side but favoring the northeasterly direction for
flow. Let`s backtrack really quick to Sunday. Models are in
agreement on a shortwave trough swinging through the area on Sunday
afternoon. The combination of low instability and low PWATs will
slightly put a hamper on things. Theta-E looks much less impressive
compared to yesterday`s model runs. Upper-level convergence looks to
be favorable enough to squeeze out some scattered rain showers, but
the better chances for this will be in the southern half of the CWA.

High pressure moves off to the east late on Monday and puts us back
into onshore flow. This will increase our moisture going into
midweek. That`s an important note because models are in agreement on
an area of low pressure developing in south Texas on Tuesday. The
low will drift slowly to the northeast along the coastline. This
combined with Theta-E ridging, PWATs around 1.5", a prolonged stay
beneath the right entrance region of a jet streak, and a
convergence boundary setting up over the northern CWA means that
rain will be likely into Wednesday. A shortwave trough moves in on
Wednesday and pushes the low out of the area to the east. A cold
front will move through the area as a parting gift from the low.
This front will not have any significant cold air behind it, but
it will allow us to have another couple of nights of sweater
weather.

26

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR. Some patchy fog possible Thursday morning over the south if
it doesn`t mix out the shallow moisture.

45

&&

.MARINE...

Weak high pressure over S TX/Coastal Bend will slip out into the
Gulf and today and continue eastward tonight/Thursday swinging winds
from NW to SW. During the day Thursday southwesterly flow will
strengthen with the approach of the cold front. The front should
push off the coast Thursday evening with northerly winds of 15 to 25
knots and SCA conditions developing. Winds should diminish Friday
night/early Saturday though the wind profile aloft may support
strong winds into Saturday mid morning. Low tide/water levels
conditions looking likely Friday 3 am through Saturday afternoon.
High pressure eventually pushes out over SETX/NW Gulf Saturday night
then eastward to FL by Monday evening. This will in turn open up the
Gulf for business. Moderate onshore flow steadily moistens up Monday
and probably sets the stage for the first sea fog event Monday night
through Tuesday. Next cold front looks potent for storms with all
the moisture over the region Tuesday night/Wednesday.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 58 38 65 36 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 60 40 68 39 58 / 0 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 57 51 67 47 58 / 0 0 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
Cpv17
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snowman65 wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:13 am I keep seeing news about this polar vortex split causing major cold outbreaks, blah blah blah, but I dont see anything special, even for the N.E.....
The PNA is forecast to go into neutral or slightly negative here pretty soon along with the EPO going negative. That should allow for some much colder air to head our way over the coming weeks as long as that southeast ridge doesn’t poke its head too far west which it very well might do. Time will tell. As long as the EPO remains negative and the PNA stays close to neutral then we’ll be in business down here.
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:03 am
snowman65 wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:13 am I keep seeing news about this polar vortex split causing major cold outbreaks, blah blah blah, but I dont see anything special, even for the N.E.....
The PNA is forecast to go into neutral or slightly negative here pretty soon along with the EPO going negative. That should allow for some much colder air to head our way over the coming weeks as long as that southeast ridge doesn’t poke its head too far west which it very well might do. Time will tell. As long as the EPO remains negative and the PNA stays close to neutral then we’ll be in business down here.
Bring it on.

Speaking of cold, it's remained just cold enough to continue seeing the leftover snow still on the ground on satellite. Easy to pick out from roughly the east of Roswell NM on top of the Caprock, on over into the Abilene and Big Country region, and faint reflections into Central Texas. Legitimate snow storm.
Cpv17
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Man, talk about a big difference between the GFS and Euro. The Euro is fairly dry for next week and the GFS has a flood.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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snowman65 wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:13 am I keep seeing news about this polar vortex split causing major cold outbreaks, blah blah blah, but I dont see anything special, even for the N.E.....
Because stratospheric warming events take 3-6 weeks to make it to the surface.

Yes, we will get cold again, when the EPO tanks.

Pattern is great.
Team #NeverSummer
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DoctorMu
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Albedo kept temps mostly in the 20s and 30s until today. The snowman finally fell over, leaving just the base. :lol: There's still a few remnants of snow on roofs and north sides of homes and trees.

Doesn't look great for another winter storm this weekend, but predictability is low with stratospheric warming and really cold air bottled up.

There's still great potential for a jailbreak. ;)
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GBinGrimes
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:07 pm Albedo kept temps mostly in the 20s and 30s until today. The snowman finally fell over, leaving just the base. :lol: There's still a few remnants of snow on roofs and north sides of homes and trees.

Doesn't look great for another winter storm this weekend, but predictability is low with stratospheric warming and really cold air bottled up.

There's still great potential for a jailbreak. ;)
In the past couple of years we've had just about EVERYTHING weather-wise EXCEPT a full blown Polar jailbreak.

BRING.IT.ON.

And Jason...you'll need to cover those plants. Again.
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Katdaddy
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Very nice weather through the weekend. Next week is looking interesting with a January heavy rain event. From this morning's AFD:

A weak/stalled frontal boundary just to our north could add a little more color to this pallet...but one of the main points of interest with most of these 00Z global runs have been PWAT progs of near 2" Weds/Thurs as most of the other features remain in place. So while we are still a ways away (Days 5-7), trends are pointing to a very wet period next week. A Bear Watch may be needed.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 141059
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
459 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Morning]...

Some areas of patchy fog over night developed in the northern
counties and some in the western counties as well. Most has been
shallow not wide spread and is expected to burn off early Quiet
conditions through the end of the week. High pressure in the
northern Gulf of Mexico will move eastward as a weak upper level
cool front moves through the area tonight. At this time, no active
weather is associated with the system, outside of a wind shift from
southwesterly to northwesterly. The northerly wind flow will bring
drier and cooler air. Tomorrow, highs will be in the mid to upper
60s and Friday will be in the mid to upper 50s. Lows this morning
are in the upper 30s with around 40 along the coastal counties and
around 50 at the extreme coastal cities. Friday night will be colder
with lows reaching freezing for most areas or just below. Extreme
coastal cities will reach around 40. 35

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday through Thursday]...

Dry/quiet weather expected for the weekend as surface high pressure
lingers over the area. Highs will range from the upper 50s into the
lower 60s with lows in the mid to upper 30s inland and the lower to
mid 40s at the coast. Skies will be mostly clear with winds light.

We`ll start to see some changes by Mon...with a lot of indications
that the rest of the week will be a very wet/active one. The east-
ward track of the surface high will allow for the return of a SE/S
flow Mon as daytime temperatures warm into the mid and upper 60s.
Via the strengthening onshore winds, increasing low-level moisture
(PWs rising to AOA 1") could account for some isolated WAA showers
Mon night/early Tues morning. However, POPs across SE TX should be
increasing significantly starting Tues afternoon with the develop-
ment of a coastal low as a series of embedded short-waves (via the
increasingly active southern stream jet) approach from the W/SW. A
weak/stalled frontal boundary just to our north could add a little
more color to this pallet...but one of the main points of interest
with most of these 00Z global runs have been PWAT progs of near 2"
Weds/Thurs as most of the other features remain in place. So while
we are still a ways away (Days 5-7), trends are pointing to a very
wet period next week. A Bear Watch may be needed. 41

&&

.MARINE...

Warm southwesterly flow today will be increasing and have hoisted a
SCEC - though by mid afternoon it gets borderline and may warrant an
SCA. The cold front should push off the coast tonight with a well
stacked northwest flow aloft early Friday morning. SCA conditions
look fairly likely tonight and the mid-morning update will likely
include the SCA for tonight. Winds remain stout through Friday as
the 850 front sweeps through. Winds relax on Saturday with high
pressure over the region then on Sunday the transition takes place
with warm and increasingly moist south and southeasterly flow late
Monday through Tuesday feeding into the next system. A long period
of moderate to strong onshore flow early to mid week is going to
bring more SCA conditions and possibly sea fog.

Tide levels near normal this morning should fall below normal
tonight and with the low tide cycle Friday afternoon expect low
water conditions that should continue through the Saturday afternoon
low tide cycle.

45

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions through the TAF period with a dry cool front moving
through out the flying areas tomorrow evening shifting winds
northwesterly. Winds will begin shifting in the CLL area around 21z
and then GLS around 00z. Outside of the winds shifting, no impacts
to operations are expected through out the forecast period. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 34 55 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 41 58 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 46 58 42 58 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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Going to have to pay attention to it early next week as an upper-level low slowly approaches Central/Eastern Texas. Some models hint at the possibility of heavy rain and a flooding threat. Still, a lot of details to figure out.
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The cold will be building significantly in our source region over the next couple weeks, but we really need the EPO to go negative so it could push south towards us. Without that the cold will just stay up north.
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