January 2021

[redneckweather]

CMC is money for Southeast Texas and surrounding areas.

[DoctorMu]

Well back to the drawing board - re: gfs 0z

The CMC has it now. Euro up next. I think by Wednesday we’ll know a lot more.

GEM bringing it hard with the Euro.

Canadian has 2 low to mid teen nights after the winter storm. This could be an interesting next few days.

[redneckweather]

CMC and GFS keep the frozen stuff well north of Southeast Texas around the 10th. That looks more plausible.

[Kingwood36]

CMC and GFS keep the frozen stuff well north of Southeast Texas around the 10th. That looks more plausible.

Not suprised

[don]

12z EURO still shows a winter storm down to the I-10 corridor fwiw. And the reason why is the placement of the low,on the EURO the low is further south in the gulf which allows cold air advection to spill in while the low brings in moisture from the gulf. While the CMC and GFS have the low inland which keeps us on the warm side of the storm due to warm air advection from the gulf.Which is what happened with last weeks storm system as the gulf low tracked inland. The placement and direction of the gulf low will be very important in determining who gets snow or just rain.

[redneckweather]

12z EURO still shows a winter storm down to the I-10 corridor fwiw. And the reason why is the placement of the low,on the EURO the low is further south in the gulf which allows cold air advection to spill in while the low brings in moisture from the gulf. While the CMC and GFS have the low inland which keeps us on the warm side of the storm due to warm air advection from the gulf.Which is what happened with last weeks storm system as the gulf low tracked inland. The placement and direction of the gulf low will be very important in determining who gets snow or just rain.

Make it happen Don, the entire weather board is counting on you. No pressure.

[don]

12z EURO still shows a winter storm down to the I-10 corridor fwiw. And the reason why is the placement of the low,on the EURO the low is further south in the gulf which allows cold air advection to spill in while the low brings in moisture from the gulf. While the CMC and GFS have the low inland which keeps us on the warm side of the storm due to warm air advection from the gulf.Which is what happened with last weeks storm system as the gulf low tracked inland. The placement and direction of the gulf low will be very important in determining who gets snow or just rain.

Make it happen Don, the entire weather board is counting on you. No pressure.

LOL I'll try

[Kingwood36]

Is it more or does storm2k texas winter weather thread have a Dallas bias? Or is it just me?

[Cpv17]

Is it more or does storm2k texas winter weather thread have a Dallas bias? Or is it just me?

The majority of the people on there are from the DFW area so that’s why.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

They are good people, but a heavy focus on North and West Texas.

There are some signals out there that the next 6 weeks could be very, very active. The subtrop jet stays busy, and the cold in Siberia looks to transition over to our side of the globe mid-late month. Omega block locks us in through February.

Weeklies looked insane yesterday. It looked more like Oklahoma City (for SE Texas) than anything else.

[srainhoutx]

I noticed the anticipated Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event began yesterday. While the scientific data for these phenomenon is still not fully known, it does suggest significant changes may be ahead regarding the sensible weather where we live. Fingers crossed for the cold weather lovers out there. It looks like I'll be digging out of a Major Winter Storm here in the Smokies late this work week with a potentially 12 inch+ snow. Should the Texas event verify, additional heavy snow in my backyard could be likely next week!

[DoctorMu]

12z EURO still shows a winter storm down to the I-10 corridor fwiw. And the reason why is the placement of the low,on the EURO the low is further south in the gulf which allows cold air advection to spill in while the low brings in moisture from the gulf. While the CMC and GFS have the low inland which keeps us on the warm side of the storm due to warm air advection from the gulf.Which is what happened with last weeks storm system as the gulf low tracked inland. The placement and direction of the gulf low will be very important in determining who gets snow or just rain.

That's what we need. The last low launched NW of us and didn't stop.

[DoctorMu]

I noticed the anticipated Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event began yesterday. While the scientific data for these phenomenon is still not fully known, it does suggest significant changes may be ahead regarding the sensible weather where we live. Fingers crossed for the cold weather lovers out there. It looks like I'll be digging out of a Major Winter Storm here in the Smokies late this work week with a potentially 12 inch+ snow. Should the Texas event verify, additional heavy snow in my backyard could be likely next week!

We'd love to get the party started here and then dump another foot on the Smokys.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The next 6 weeks looks like one of the best Winter prospects in some time.

[DoctorMu]

The next 6 weeks looks like one of the best Winter prospects in some time.

Yes, things are starting to look a lot less tropiKal in SE Texas.

[Texashawk]

David Paul seems supremely unconcerned with the possibility. And he’s usually pretty good about pointing out weather outlier possibilities well in advance...

[Cpv17]

The GFS has a lot of snow for the southeast. Basically from Louisiana all the way into the Carolinas. I think a lot of that will correct back west with time though.

[tireman4]

David Paul seems supremely unconcerned with the possibility. And he’s usually pretty good about pointing out weather outlier possibilities well in advance...

Remember what Wxman57 and Srain states,....5 days and going into the event is when you need to pay attention

1. The trend is your friend.
2. Models can and do lose systems. Be aware of that
3. Watch the source regions.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 051005
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
405 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday Night]...

Areas of patchy to dense fog that develop overnight across many
areas south of I-10 is expected to quickly erode this morning as a
very weak cold front continues into the coastal waters briefly
bringing in slightly drier and cooler air to areas north of the
coastal locations. It will however, be quickly replaced by warm
moist air from the western Gulf waters as winds turn more southerly
by this afternoon ahead of the next cold front progged to move
across SE Texas on Wednesday. As a result, areas east of I-45 will
have the chance to feel cooler temperatures today (upper 60s), while
areas west of I-45 look to stay in the low 70s.

The weather pattern will begin to transition late tonight or early
Monday morning as low level moisture from the Gulf increases further
across the CWA and a cold front moves into Central Texas. Locally,
we will see showers beginning to move into the southwestern and
western portions of the region sometime late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Then, as the cold front nears our northern counties
Wednesday afternoon, activity will scatter further north and
northeastward. Stronger showers and thunderstorms will then be felt
just ahead and along the frontal boundary as it makes its way across
SE Texas from late Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday
night. Looking into the forecast soundings, CAPE values are not
that impressive, yet SFC-6KM shear, SFC-1km SRH values and mid
level lapse rates are decent Wednesday afternoon/evening. This may
allow for stronger storms capable of producing strong gusty
winds. That being said, there are some model inconsistencies with
how quick the front moves through. If it follows the current
ECMWF solution, then the front moves faster and should be well
into the Gulf waters before midnight CST. But if it prefers the
GFS/NAM solution, then we may have a slower moving front, giving
us a little more time for rainfall...which could result in minor
flooding concerns, especially along areas that received good
amounts of rain with the last weather event. At this time, the
forecast times the front similar to what the GFS is indicating,
but may be subject to some changes depending on the next few model
solutions. SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook has placed most of SE
Texas under a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms mostly for
Wednesday afternoon.

In the wake of the front, winds will turn northerly and a drier
cooler air mass filters across SE Texas through early Thursday
morning. Overnight temperatures will be back down in the upper 30s
to low 40s along areas north of I-10 and in the low to mid 40s
elsewhere. 24

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday Night]...

Dry and cooler conditions return Thu-Sat as surface high pressure
settles in over central TX. Breezy north to north-west winds prevail
on Thursday behind the departing cold front, but will gradually
diminish throughout the day as pressure gradient relaxes. Daytime
temperatures will reach the mid 60s on Thursday; slightly cooler on
Friday with highs mainly in the 50s.

Winds will begin to transition to easterly, then southeasterly on
Saturday as an upper-level trough tracks over the Rockies. This will
result in increasing low-mid level moisture ahead of the next period
of unsettled conditions during the weekend. As the aforementioned
upper trough moves over the Plains, a surface trough and associated
front develop over south TX/Mexico-TX border. Models are in general
agreement on the passage of the upper-low system, but diverges a bit
on the evolution and strength of the surface trough. Confidence is
moderate to high that scattered showers will return to the region by
Sunday; however, confidence in precipitation amounts remain low
given these differences in track and strength. Given that, have
leaned towards NBM/ConsALL/WPCGuidance for PoPs from Sat Night - Sun
Night. Therefore, precipitation chances will begin to increase late
Saturday night, becoming likely during the day on Sunday. The
passage of this system will bring gusty conditions, especially over
the waters by Sunday afternoon and evening.

Surface high pressure will slide over the region late Sunday/Monday,
pushing off any remaining precipitation eastward. With CAA and
northwest winds in place, below average temperatures are expected
Sunday into early next week. Daytime highs will range in the upper
40s and 50s; overnight lows from the low 30s to mid 40s. 05

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

Areas of patchy to dense fog stayed mostly confined to areas
south of I-10 resulting in LIFR to IFR conditions for LBX/GLS.
Fog is expected to quickly burn off by mid morning. For the rest
of today, VFR conditions with light VRB winds expected. Clouds
will return by 00Z with MVFR to VFR conditions expected by around
06-09Z. 24

&&

.MARINE...

Dense sea fog currently affecting the bays is expected to lift
later this morning. Winds will turn east to southeast this morning
with a more established onshore flow expected this evening and
continue through Wednesday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected Wednesday ahead and along a cold front still
progged to move across the local waters sometime Wednesday
evening/night. In the wake of the front, moderate to strong
offshore flow and elevated seas will develop and likely require
Caution flags and/or Advisories from Wednesday evening into
Thursday. A lighter easterly flow is expected Friday with onshore
flow returning by Saturday night. Winds strengthen and seas build
Sunday into Monday as a surface low pressure from the SW and a
cold front moves across the local waters. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 52 66 39 58 / 0 20 70 20 0
Houston (IAH) 69 52 69 44 60 / 0 10 70 40 0
Galveston (GLS) 66 59 69 48 60 / 0 10 60 50 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...
Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Wharton.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

&&

$$

Short Term/Marine/Aviation...24
Long Term/Fire Weather...05

[redneckweather]

I'm really liking the latest run from the CMC. The GFS also shows the same suppressed storm track as the CMC except not much on the way of snow. The CMC I'm guessing has colder air aloft sooner with serious snow breaking out over Southeast, Texas. Yes it's the CMC but interesting none the less.