January 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
ArizonaAZMeador
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Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:56 pm

Re: January 2021

Post by ArizonaAZMeador » Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:52 am

I find it amusing how this board goes quiet when the models are waffling. First there is a winter storm,then it disappears and everyone loses hope. I hate model hugging. The best Houston winter events are never predicted correctly by " the models". Dan used to tell me, live by the models,die by the models.

Cpv17
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Re: January 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:52 pm

The models should never be used as an official forecast. They should be used as a tool along with your own personal input to help deliver as accurate a forecast as possible. Models help tremendously and I think any met would agree with that but there’s a lot more to making a forecast than just going by what the models say. I call that lazy forecasting!

ArizonaAZMeador
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:56 pm

Re: January 2021

Post by ArizonaAZMeador » Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:08 pm

More often than not the models are used for forecasting. TWC is most guilty of this. I've also seen local Houston on air meterologists guilty of this. When Dr Neil Frank would make his forecasts he did look at model data but he also used his own knowledge and experience.

ArizonaAZMeador
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Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:56 pm

Re: January 2021

Post by ArizonaAZMeador » Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:57 pm

So. how is that winter storm for Sunday coming along? :)

Cpv17
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Re: January 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:44 pm

ArizonaAZMeador wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:57 pm
So. how is that winter storm for Sunday coming along? :)
None of us never said anything about it actually happening. We said it was just a possibility. It’s impossible for any model to accurately predict something a week away.

ArizonaAZMeador
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:56 pm

Re: January 2021

Post by ArizonaAZMeador » Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:21 pm

If it is impossible for a model to make a semi accurate forecast a week out, then they shouldnt be allowed to even try to forecast that far ahead. I say limit model forecasts to 4 days in order to be more accurate. Remember, models are programmed by human beings and all human beings make mistakes.

ArizonaAZMeador
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:56 pm

Re: January 2021

Post by ArizonaAZMeador » Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:30 pm

why is the air so cold in Siberia and the north pole but that bitter air cant move? look at the current weather in yakutsk russia:

-53°F
RealFeel® -45°
Fog
Wind
NE 2 mph
Wind Gusts
2 mph
Humidity
58%
Indoor Humidity
1% (Dangerously Dry)
Dew Point
-62° F
Pressure
↑ 30.31 in
Cloud Cover
20%
Visibility
0.00 mi
Cloud Ceiling 30000

ArizonaAZMeador
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:56 pm

Re: January 2021

Post by ArizonaAZMeador » Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:34 pm

current weather khandyga russia

Now
Clear.
-60 °F
Clear.


Feels Like: -60 °F
Forecast: -50 / -58 °F
Wind: No wind

Location: Teply Kljuch
Current Time: Jan 15, 2021 at 9:19:19 am
Latest Report: Jan 15, 2021 at 6:00 am
Visibility: 6 mi
Pressure: 30.50 "Hg
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: -62 °F <----THAT NEEDS TO COME HERE AND HOP THE NORTH POLE

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:31 am

Seems Kat-astrophic.

Andrew
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Re: January 2021

Post by Andrew » Fri Jan 15, 2021 4:03 am

Models are let progressive with the cut-off low over the Baja Region for next week. Instead of stalling the low over West Texas, the system gets sheared over the Pacific. Still something to watch, but definitely would be less of a concern for flooding if models stick with this solution.
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