January 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Rip76
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:20 am WRF. OMG

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0912&fh=39

Is that in inches (the legend on the right)
redneckweather
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Rip76 wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:33 am
DoctorMu wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:20 am WRF. OMG

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0912&fh=39



Is that in inches (the legend on the right)

Yes
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djmike
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Snowman65..:..You can drive to Beaumont. Lol. 1-2” per the NAM. Unfortunately it drops near Vidor eastward.
I think everyone will see “something” eventually. (Snow, sleet, ice, graupel...etc) JMO. Remember, many models have a hard time with cold weather. Hence why we get surprised many times on snow events down here.
Last edited by djmike on Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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MontgomeryCoWx
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:20 am WRF. OMG

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0912&fh=39
If I see this play out like that, I’m driving to CS, scaling Kyle Field and playing Football with my child.

Yeah, I’d have 4-6 inches, but close to a foot is a whole different t ballgame.
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Kingwood36
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I remember plenty times when they were forecasting nothing in certain areas and then when the event started those areas got something that wasn't forecasted due to models under estimating things...so will see what happens
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snowman65
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djmike wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:38 am Snowman65..:..You can drive to Beaumont. Lol. 1-2” per the NAM. Unfortunately it drops near Vidor eastward.
I think everyone will see “something” eventually. (Snow, sleet, ice, graupel...etc) JMO. Remember, many models have a hard time with cold weather. Hence why we get surprised many times on snow events down here.
Whats your address? Lolol
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don
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The WRF looks nice with temps in the low to mid 30s all the way to the coast with plenty of precip over southeast Texas at the same time as the trowel moves through. Looks like as expected the mesoscale models are coming in more aggressive with the cold air advection.
Cromagnum
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Well, we did have all these gulf hurricanes this year. More times than not winter gets interesting in landfalling years.
cperk
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snowman65 wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:43 am
djmike wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:38 am Snowman65..:..You can drive to Beaumont. Lol. 1-2” per the NAM. Unfortunately it drops near Vidor eastward.
I think everyone will see “something” eventually. (Snow, sleet, ice, graupel...etc) JMO. Remember, many models have a hard time with cold weather. Hence why we get surprised many times on snow events down here.
Whats your address? Lolol
I'm looking at some photos from 12/8/2017 with Fort Bend county covered in snow and the OCM'S forecasted a few flakes if that.I'm not gonna get to excited,but i'm certainly not gonna rule it out.
davidiowx
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cperk wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:11 pm
snowman65 wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:43 am
djmike wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:38 am Snowman65..:..You can drive to Beaumont. Lol. 1-2” per the NAM. Unfortunately it drops near Vidor eastward.
I think everyone will see “something” eventually. (Snow, sleet, ice, graupel...etc) JMO. Remember, many models have a hard time with cold weather. Hence why we get surprised many times on snow events down here.
Whats your address? Lolol
I'm looking at some photos from 12/8/2017 with Fort Bend county covered in snow and the OCM'S forecasted a few flakes if that.I'm not gonna get to excited,but i'm certainly not gonna rule it out.
I remember that quite well. Lived off Memorial and I-10 and Harvey flooded our place for over two weeks. Completely destroyed everything. We moved out to Richmond after all of that and got about 1-1/2 to 2 inches of snow a month after moving into our new house. It was a great ending to an otherwise miserable second half of 2017.
ArizonaAZMeador
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i remember that. about 1.5 inches near Pearland,when,that very evening,the OCM'S were downplaying everything with negativity. All of them seemed embarrased the next day.
davidiowx
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18z HRRR has more snow around here than the 12z run. Brings a back sided band across 1-10 and N as the low pulls out
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MontgomeryCoWx
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All mesoscale models have at least 4 inches for me and some as much as 7 ....

Yet MoCo is not in the Winter Storm Watch.... Yeesh. Something has to give.
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TexasMetBlake
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Winter Storm Warnings are starting to go up with the afternoon packages. Will be interesting to see what they do with Montgomery, San Jacinto and Polk counties.
TexasMetBlake
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Austin just went under a Winter Weather Advisory. I suspect the same is coming for Montgomery, San Jac and Polk counties soon.
Kingwood36
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KHOU BLake wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:15 pm Austin just went under a Winter Weather Advisory. I suspect the same is coming for Montgomery, San Jac and Polk counties soon.
Be honest blake do you think this makes it into brazoria county? I'd be happy with a fake lol
Cpv17
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Bottom line is that it’s becoming increasingly likely that areas north of I-10 will see at least some snow. I would put areas along the 59 corridor and points north of there into the maybe category now. We’re still 24 hours out or so. Things can easily still change. Remember the trends have been really good ever since 12z yesterday. That’s a full model cycle of good trends!
ArizonaAZMeador
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I detected negativity from Blake. Yesterday,he was the voice of positivity. The short term meso models are trending colder and snowier. Blake, please do something to make it happen
Kingwood36
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:24 pm Bottom line is that it’s becoming increasingly likely that areas north of I-10 will see at least some snow. I would put areas along the 59 corridor and points north of there into the maybe category now. We’re still 24 hours out or so. Things can easily still change. Remember the trends have been really good ever since 12z yesterday. That’s a full model cycle of good trends!
So points south if i10 are still rain
ArizonaAZMeador
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Freeways like i10 and 59 werent designed to be boundaries for cold and snow.Im not buying into this " area north of i10" boundary. watch the upper low. i am looking at it onwater vapor. Its digging and looks to move right over Houston with a cold core. Upper lows such as this one dont care if you are north or south of i10
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