January 2021

[snowman65]

Please push it more South and East to us in Orange...please

[Kingwood36]

Why is herzog pushing this so hard? I guess he isnt looking at the nam or he is being conservative and waiting to see what tomorrow shows...he did say "we will see how this map changes in the coming days"

[TXWeatherMan]

Why is herzog pushing this so hard? I guess he isnt looking at the nam or he is being conservative and waiting to see what tomorrow shows...he did say "we will see how this map changes in the coming days"

That map actually looks pretty accurate to me. I hope I’m wrong though and people south of I-10 get some wintry weather.

[TexasBreeze]

Nobody wants to put all of their bets into following 1 model so that map for now is the most likely scenario.

[ArizonaAZMeador]

herzog is looking at another model. he is presenting negativity. you simply cannot draw boundaries like that with this type of event.

[Belmer]

Why is herzog pushing this so hard? I guess he isnt looking at the nam or he is being conservative and waiting to see what tomorrow shows...he did say "we will see how this map changes in the coming days"

I personally don't see anything wrong with it. Travis likes to keep generally the same message/graphics that HGX uses in their forecast with his own personal thoughts as well. This is the graphic HGX used earlier today and the 0z models tonight don't really suggest it should be changed. Now will it verify? I'd like to see 06 and 12z runs tomorrow as the upper level trough begins entering our region and what the sounding profiles show to our north in relation to the depth of the cold air. As we've heard before: 1-2 degrees can make a big difference, especially in a setup like this.

[tireman4]

Why is herzog pushing this so hard? I guess he isnt looking at the nam or he is being conservative and waiting to see what tomorrow shows...he did say "we will see how this map changes in the coming days"

I personally don't see anything wrong with it. Travis likes to keep generally the same message/graphics that HGX uses in their forecast with his own personal thoughts as well. This is the graphic HGX used earlier today and the 0z models tonight don't really suggest it should be changed. Now will it verify? I'd like to see 06 and 12z runs tomorrow as the upper level trough begins entering our region and what the sounding profiles show to our north in relation to the depth of the cold air. As we've heard before: 1-2 degrees can make a big difference, especially in a setup like this.


ErNnwuzW4Agg1uA.jpeg

I agree with Belmer. I would stay with the HGX forecast and as he said, lets see what Saturday brings. We are still over 3-4 days out.

[ArizonaAZMeador]

herzog i promise isnt looking at the nam or the current position of the upper low,im watching it on water vapor and it is digging south faster than what the models are saying. theres a good chance that low will dig and move right over houston ,with bitter cold air up top , the whole area will ge

[ArizonaAZMeador]

you can also see the upper low well on infared tonight. it is about to cross the nevada utah border,and it is digging. i dont think herzog is watching the movement of the upper low.

[Cpv17]

0z UKMET pretty big shift south.

[Stormlover2020]

CPV, what’s the latest I just got done with my basketball game haven’t checked it yet

[Cpv17]

[Rip76]

That’s not good for us.

[TXWeatherMan]

That’s not good for us.

Yeah, but the run before this one was even further north.

[Cpv17]

That’s not good for us.

It trended a good bit further south from previous run. Remember trends are your friend and a lot of models have been trending better for us since 12z.

[Rip76]

That’s not good for us.

It trended a good bit further south from previous run. Remember trends are your friend and a lot of models have been trending better for us since 12z.

Right on. We need a “like” button.

[Cpv17]

0z Euro trended ever so slightly south as well. Good way to end the night. Gonna hit the sack now lol

[Andrew]

Still not seeing anything too concerning for Harris County. Not only are surface temperatures going to remain above freezing, but expect WAA between 750-850mb until the surface low tracks to our east. If precipitation can last past midnight we might see some changeover. Obviously the further you track to the north the better chances become. I think the graphics from ABC and the NWS are pretty spot on right now. Here is the HRRR 06Z for reference (where we may see some brief changeover):

[srainhoutx]

FXUS64 KHGX 091140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 AM CST Sat Jan 9 2021


.SHORT TERM [Through Monday]...
Quiet wx is on tap today before conditions deteriorate later
tonight into Sunday morning. Our next wx system can be seen on wv
imagery dropping sewd toward the Four Corners region. As it
continues to dig southeast and into West Texas tonight, expect a
coastal low to begin developing between Corpus and Matagorda Bay.
With increasing moisture and large scale lift, look for sct precip
to begin developing late tonight...increase in areal coverage and
overspread southeast Tx from west-to-east during the day Sunday.
Coastal parts of Jackson, Matagorda & Brazoria may see some
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall at times.

As both the upper trof and coastal low advance ewd later in the
day Sunday, temp profile aloft will cool enough to where northern
parts of the CWA may begin seeing a transition to a rain/snow
mix. Atmos will further cool s/sewd Sunday evening into the
overnight hours and expect precip to transition more to snow
across northern parts and a rain-snow mix possibly as far south to
the I-10 area.

So what has changed since this time last night?
1. Guidance, in general, positions the coastal low a bit further
south and brings the colder air in sooner. Tweaked the fcst to
indicate a mix possible later in the afternoon Sunday across the
north. Some of the latest incoming fcst soundings indicate this
could occur even earlier in the day.

2. Due to #1 and some better frontogenic forcing...several
deterministic, hires and ensemble runs are showing the potential
for higher snow accumulations amounts than what is currently in
the forecast across northern zones. As of now, eyeballing 1-4"
across the Winter Storm Watch area (esp north and northeast
parts). Of note, there are guidance suggestions of even higher &
some lower.

There will likely be a fairly sharp cut-off as to where
accumulations actually occur and I still like the Watch area
currently in place. Chances of any significant accumulations drop
off pretty quickly further one travels south of that. Debated
adding San Jacinto and Polk Counties into it, but since we still
have plenty of time to monitor guidance trends I prefer to wait
and see if we can get some better consistency.

Of course, and as what has been previously been mentioned, even
slight storm track deviations & mesoscale forcing can make a world
of difference in short geographic distances and the fcst will
continue to evolve.

Heading into the late evening Sunday and after midnight, we should
see a bit of dry slotting coming in from the west and available
moisture in the mid levels will wane from west-to-east. Precip
should mostly be done before sunrise Monday followed by a mcldy,
breezy & cold day. 47

[snowman65]

Looks like just cold nasty rain for us...well, it was fun to hope anyway....moving on.