December 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
biggerbyte
Posts: 1142
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
Contact:

LOL

Well we had some chance of a change coming up for mid/late week, but im afraid all the talk of possible mischief and coldest so far temps have vanished. My forecast went from 40s for highs and 20s for lows to U50s/U30s. Same old. Oh well.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

biggerbyte wrote: Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:20 pm LOL

Well we had some chance of a change coming up for mid/late week, but im afraid all the talk of possible mischief and coldest so far temps have vanished. My forecast went from 40s for highs and 20s for lows to U50s/U30s. Same old. Oh well.
Ehh, I’m not too disappointed. I’m excited for the stormy rainy weather headed our way!
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

The NAM is pretty far west with the heavy rains. Most of southeast Texas only sees about a half inch to an inch and a half according to the NAM. Just to the west of the viewing area sees a flood though, so it’s close. However, the Euro is a good bit wetter for everyone.
tropiKal
Posts: 84
Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:46 pm

Big Southern California storm coming...almost El Nino like... ;)
Lucky breaks indeed.
tropiKal
Posts: 84
Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:46 pm

unome wrote: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:13 am a little soggy here as well, but better that than the drought - west TX & NM in dire strights already :(

https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSe ... d97e7ae35b

https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webap ... d980555528

wishing a safe New Year to all y'all
There will probably be drying later this winter thru spring as the La Nina signal kicks in, and the Pacific storm train gets shunted north away from our area. The summer will be wetter if the ridge sets farther north and more zonal - see July-August 2012.
User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1702
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

What happened to the temps for new years? They vanished. Started out low 50s for highs and low 30s for lows for beaumont. Now local mets and NWSLC show upper 60s and mid 40s for lows around NY. Cmon winter. We need you this year. You were nonexistent last 3 years. We had a crazy TX/La hurricane season, so that means snow and Ice cold temps this year! Lololol

Anyway, looks like this storm system thursday will be a doozy. NOT looking forward to it here in Beaumont as we always seem to get flooding or damage every storm system. Wind damage and tornadoes look to be the culprit for this one...Stay safe everyone!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

One of the ensemble models still has a frost/freeze this weekend. All have a steep temp gradient west to east NYE/NY day.

Image
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

djmike wrote: Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:00 pm What happened to the temps for new years? They vanished. Started out low 50s for highs and low 30s for lows for beaumont. Now local mets and NWSLC show upper 60s and mid 40s for lows around NY. Cmon winter. We need you this year. You were nonexistent last 3 years. We had a crazy TX/La hurricane season, so that means snow and Ice cold temps this year! Lololol

Anyway, looks like this storm system thursday will be a doozy. NOT looking forward to it here in Beaumont as we always seem to get flooding or damage every storm system. Wind damage and tornadoes look to be the culprit for this one...Stay safe everyone!

NOAA,s been pretty consistent, but *shock* TWC has been swinging wildly like a drunk on Bourbon Street during Mardi Gras.
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

djmike wrote: Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:00 pm What happened to the temps for new years? They vanished. Started out low 50s for highs and low 30s for lows for beaumont. Now local mets and NWSLC show upper 60s and mid 40s for lows around NY. Cmon winter. We need you this year. You were nonexistent last 3 years. We had a crazy TX/La hurricane season, so that means snow and Ice cold temps this year! Lololol

Anyway, looks like this storm system thursday will be a doozy. NOT looking forward to it here in Beaumont as we always seem to get flooding or damage every storm system. Wind damage and tornadoes look to be the culprit for this one...Stay safe everyone!
Unfortunately, that is how a lot of these events trend. Early this week models had a much sharper and deeper trough impacting the region. Once the "split" occurred and the cutoff low became the eventual solution it was hard to get enough cold air this far south. I do think New Years eve night will be pretty nice with some chilly weather.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Someone’s going to end up getting several inches of rain from this event. It’s looking to me like the heaviest band may setup anywhere from anywhere Calhoun County to Brazoria County and shoot up straight north from there.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

One thing that raises an eyebrow is the latest runs of the HRRR shows the storms stalling more to the east along the 59/I-45 corridors.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

I’m kind of surprised that FFW haven’t been announced. The ground is very saturated and it won’t take much to cause flooding.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
550 AM CST Wed Dec 30 2020

.AVIATION...

Area has a MVFR/VFR ceiling mix early this morning. This should continue
(along with increasing SHRA coverage) until later this afternoon when
the cold front begins to enter the CLL area. Gradually increasing SHRA/TSRA
coverage along with MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities can be expected
tonight through tomorrow area wide in association with the front and
low pressure that will be moving across the area. Improving conditions
will likely hold off until after 31/18z. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CST Wed Dec 30 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday]...

Southeast Texas is still on track for an end of the year storm system
that will have the potential for locally heavy rain and possible strong/
severe storms. A southeastward advancing cold front will enter our northwest
counties late this afternoon or early this evening with areas of showers
and/or thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the boundary. The
front is expected to stall somewhere across our northern and western
counties overnight (maybe near the Crockett area to the Waller area
to the Edna area) and become a focus for potential development of locally
heavy rain. With a developing upper low over northern Mexico, expect
to see a surface reflection/low form late tonight through early tomorrow
morning along the lower Texas coast. As this surface feature works its
way toward the middle Texas coast and then across Southeast Texas during
the day, areas of showers and thunderstorms can be expected with the
potential for locally heavy rainfall and possible strong/severe storms.
This system will exit the area as the day progresses on Thursday with
rains coming to an end generally from the south to the north in the
afternoon. Look for much cooler and drier weather as we head into the
last hours of 2020.

There is still a decent amount of uncertainty as to exactly where the
front will stall later today and tonight and also where the surface
low will develop and move through the area on Thursday. Still anticipate
widespread rainfall totals with this event of 1 to 3 inches with isolated
amounts of 5 or more inches possible where the best training sets up
(generally near/around the slow moving front). See WPC`s latest Excessive
Rainfall Outlooks. We`ll also be monitoring for possible strong/severe
storms late tonight through Thursday when best dynamics look to be
setting up. See SPC`s latest Convective Outlooks.

Much cooler air can be expected across the area after this storm system
moves on through. 42

LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Wednesday]...

As we prepare to say goodbye to the year 2020 on Thursday evening,
any remaining precipitation associated with the departing surface
low should diminish before the midnight countdown. As surface high
pressure begins to settle over Western TX and the 300mb upper
trough/closed low begins to eject northeastward, moderate west winds
will develop and gradually veer to the northwest by Friday
afternoon. The first day of 2021 is shaping up to be quite pleasant
as cooler, drier, and more stable air filters into the region, with
most locations seeing afternoon highs in the upper 50s and overnight
lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. With surface high pressure remaining
in place through the remainder of the weekend, the cooler and drier
trend will continue through Sunday with mostly clear skies and
limited moisture availability/upper-level support for the
development of any precipitation. All in all, it should be a great
weekend for daytime outdoor activities and evening outdoor campfires
in the backyard!

As we head into the beginning of the first full week of the new
year, a pattern shift comes as surface high pressure drifts eastward
and allows for the redevelopment of onshore flow by Monday
afternoon. As a result, a gradual warming trend is expected with
highs once again approaching the upper 60s/lower 70s on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, our next shot at rainfall will arrive around Wednesday as
an upper trough digs into the southwestern CONUS and places the
region in the favorable left front quadrant of an associated jet
streak as a surface cold front approaches the area. While it`s still
too early to say definitively, long range guidance indicates a less
amplified trough feature with lower moisture availability so early
indications point to a less impactful event than today/tomorrow`s.

Cady

MARINE...

Increasing winds and building seas can be expected both ahead of and
behind the storm system that will be moving across the state over the
next couple of days. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be on the
increase especially late tonight through tomorrow morning as a low
pressure system and associated cold front move through the area. Strong
west and northwest winds (Gale Watch in effect Thursday afternoon through
late Thursday night) and elevated seas are expected in the wake of the
departing system with low water levels in and around the bays possible.
Marine conditions should begin to improve on Friday with gradually weakening
north to northwest winds and lowering seas. An onshore flow should
return to the area at the end of the weekend. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 50 57 37 55 / 90 100 90 20 0
Houston (IAH) 75 62 68 41 58 / 80 90 90 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 72 63 68 44 58 / 60 80 100 10 0

&&
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Literally just a few minutes after I said that, they post FFW lol
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:22 am I’m kind of surprised that FFW haven’t been announced. The ground is very saturated and it won’t take much to cause flooding.
I was thinking the same thing...,but I just got a notification that a Flash Flood watch has been issued now. lol

.FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas and
southeast Texas, including the following areas, in south central
Texas, Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas, Austin, Brazoria
Islands, Brazos, Burleson, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Matagorda,
Colorado, Fort Bend, Grimes, Houston, Inland Brazoria, Inland
Harris, Inland Matagorda, Madison, Matagorda Islands, Montgomery,
Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker, Waller, Washington and Wharton.

* From 6 PM CST this evening through Thursday afternoon

* A cold front will move into southeast Texas late this afternoon and
stall tonight from near Matagorda Bay to Houston to Livingston.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening in
the vicinity of the boundary and expand in coverage after midnight
and into Thursday morning as a surface low forms and moves off to
the northeast. Heavy rainfall will end from the southwest to
northeast Thursday afternoon. Rainfall amounts are expected to
average 2 to 4 inches in the watch area with isolated amounts of 4
to 6 inches possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Do not enter or cross flowing water or water of unknown depth.
Attachments
hgx.png
hgx.png (11.23 KiB) Viewed 2859 times
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Man that’s a lot of rain on the latest HRRR. A huge swath of 3-6”.
tropiKal
Posts: 84
Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:46 pm

Fake news, nothing much will happen in the immediate area.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0880
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302040Z - 310240Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms, with some brief
backbuilding of cells, may result in an isolated flash flood
threat going into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest WV imagery shows an upper trough digging
southeast across the Southwest U.S. which is expected to evolve
into a rather strong mid-level low center over northern Mexico by
this evening. Downstream of this over areas of south-central to
southeast TX, will be increasingly strong deep-layer southerly
flow which will foster strong warm-air/moisture advection in off
the western Gulf of Mexico. Along with this, will be rather strong
upper-level divergence ahead of the trough associated with
left-exit region jet dynamics approaching the region. Already some
areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are situated across
portions of central to northeast TX as a strong cold front slowly
settles southeast across the region and coincides with the arrival
of this more conducive moisture transport and larger scale forcing
closer to the coastal plain.

The convective threat though may become a little more focused over
the next few hours and going into the evening time frame, and
especially over southeast TX as the front begins to slow down a
bit more in response to the approaching upstream height
falls/forcing. The boundary will also be interacting with a
greater uptick in PWs (reaching 1.25 to 1.5+ inches), stronger
low-level convergence/Gulf of Mexico inflow, and somewhat greater
instability with MUCAPE values of as much as 1000 to 1500 j/kg.

FFG values are quite high across the region, and generally there
is an ongoing moderate to severe drought. However, the rainfall
rates should increase somewhat this evening, and will likely get
up into the 1 to 1.5 inch/hr range occasionally. Several runs of
the HRRR have been advertising this, and with somewhat better
instability pooling across the southeast TX coastal plain, the
heavier rates will likely tend to verify. While these rates are
not overly high, there will be some potential for the cell
activity to develop and at least briefly backbuild over the same
area.

Going through early evening, some localized pockets of 2 to 3+
inch rainfall amounts will be possible. Generally any threat of
flash flooding will be highly localized and confined to the more
sensitive urban areas.

Orrison
Attachments
mcd0880.gif
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

No rain yet, but 20°F drop in temperature in CLL.
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot] and 56 guests