November 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Re: November 2020

Post by jasons2k » Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:48 pm

You know it’s pretty sad when we have a special weather statement over a “potent shower” lol

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Re: November 2020

Post by jasons2k » Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:43 pm

Latest drought monitor:
F94D2BCD-7F26-4A75-8A0B-B73D9563DEDE.jpeg
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DoctorMu
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Re: November 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:21 pm

Iota, the record setting 30th named Atlantic basin tropical storm of the season has formed and expected to move into Central America on Monday.

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Re: November 2020

Post by Andrew » Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:39 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:21 pm
Iota, the record setting 30th named Atlantic basin tropical storm of the season has formed and expected to move into Central America on Monday.
Probably looking at a major hurricane too. I never imagined we would see a season more active than 2005, especially so soon. I suspect we will see a couple more storms before the end of the season.

Locally, I still don't see much drought relief anytime soon. Maybe a little bit of rain with the front on Sunday, otherwise the GFS doesn't show any precipitation until near Thanskgiving.
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DoctorMu
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Re: November 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Nov 13, 2020 6:37 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:43 pm
Latest drought monitor:

F94D2BCD-7F26-4A75-8A0B-B73D9563DEDE.jpeg
Yeah, the drought is starting to be a problem here...and warm temps exacerbate it. If it stays warm and dry during the winter that increases the likelihood/risk of a 2011-like summer in 2021.

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DoctorMu
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Re: November 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Nov 13, 2020 6:40 pm

Andrew wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:39 pm
DoctorMu wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:21 pm
Iota, the record setting 30th named Atlantic basin tropical storm of the season has formed and expected to move into Central America on Monday.
Probably looking at a major hurricane too. I never imagined we would see a season more active than 2005, especially so soon. I suspect we will see a couple more storms before the end of the season.

Locally, I still don't see much drought relief anytime soon. Maybe a little bit of rain with the front on Sunday, otherwise the GFS doesn't show any precipitation until near Thanskgiving.

Unbelievable that we could have yet another major...but then it's 2020. 31 tropical or subtropical cyclones, 30 named storms, and Iota would be the 4th hurricane, and 6 major hurricane.

Yeah, I'm trying to titrate watering. Not too much, not too little. Enough so the grass roots and plants and trees stay happy. Worst brown patch I've ever seen...and we haven't had much cool, rainy weather, typical in the last half of October and November to trigger it!

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Re: November 2020

Post by Ptarmigan » Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:12 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:21 pm
Iota, the record setting 30th named Atlantic basin tropical storm of the season has formed and expected to move into Central America on Monday.
Not again! :shock: :o :evil:

Major hurricanes have occurred in November. Think 1932 Cuba, Kate (1985), and Lenny (1999).

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Re: November 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Nov 14, 2020 11:21 am

Ptarmigan wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:12 pm
DoctorMu wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:21 pm
Iota, the record setting 30th named Atlantic basin tropical storm of the season has formed and expected to move into Central America on Monday.
Not again! :shock: :o :evil:

Major hurricanes have occurred in November. Think 1932 Cuba, Kate (1985), and Lenny (1999).
Yes, but 2 in one November?

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Re: November 2020

Post by Kingwood36 » Sat Nov 14, 2020 6:00 pm

I'm hearing chatter about a pattern change towards the end of the month and some colder weather...anyone know anything about this?

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Re: November 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Nov 14, 2020 7:58 pm

89°F today, dewpoint of 70°F. Possibly the hottest mid November day I can remember in CLL.

A Pacific front eases through tonight. Don't get your hopes up about rain. Potential fire danger tomorrow pm. More normal temps during the week.

A reinforcing shot in a week from this Monday (Nov 23rd) with more potential for rain.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

.AVIATION...
Expecting some MVFR stratus (and possibly some patchy fog south of
I-10) to develop ahead of a cold front that`ll be passing thru
late tonight followed by clearing and breezy conditions on
Sunday. Front should be around CLL ~8z and off the coast by ~14z.
Narrow band of shra should develop ahead of the boundary as it
moves closer to the CLL/UTS area and toward the coast. VFR for the
remainder of the day. Winds should decouple inland right after
sunset. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/
SHORT TERM [This afternoon Through Sunday]... Warm and humid
conditions come to an abrupt end tonight/early Sunday as strong
Pacific cold front sweeps through the region Sunday morning and
should be off the coast by 7 or 8 am. Scattered showers may
develop along the front as it races through but the cap and
limited moisture/instability will hamper the threat of any
thunderstorms. CAA in full force Sunday with gusty northerly winds
in the wake of the front and will set the stage for a pleasantly
cool week.

LONG TERM [Sunday night Through Saturday]...
High pressure dominates through Friday with temperatures near
normal or slightly below initially then by Thursday getting to
near normal to just slight above normal as high pressure weakens
and light onshore moisture return gets underway. A very slim
chance for showers Friday into Saturday but for now will keep the
forecast dry.

MARINE... Small craft conditions developing with northerly winds
15-25 knots and gusts near 30 knots as a cold front sweeps off the
coast Sunday morning. Windy conditions persisting into Sunday
night then gradually relaxing becoming more northeasterly. Low
water conditions may briefly be possible in the upper portions of
the bays Sunday then returning to normal by evening. This coming
week will be dominated by northeast to east winds with broad low
pressure in the Southern Gulf and ridging to the northeast of
SETX. Elevated seas will persist much of the week thanks to the
long easterly fetch.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions developing Sunday in the wake of
the cold front. RH values in the 20-25 percent range in the
southwestern counties with stronger gusty northerly winds 10-20
mph. Poor recovery Sunday night followed by dry conditions Monday
and Tuesday though with much lighter winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 69 44 71 45 / 10 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 64 73 51 70 47 / 40 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 72 61 69 59 / 20 30 0 0 0

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