Come on man don’t leave us hanging.
General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Yeah, just saw that.
Found a Mischief triangle from Bryan to Austin to Waco. Entertaining at this point! Shades of 2017.
Wanting cold, and forecasting it are two very different things. I go off things like 1+2, SOI, GOA, PDO what a typical Niña Winter looks like given the current background state....
I do believe that, overall, this winter will be mild, but these types of Winter are typically good (better than 50/50 odds) for a couple or three solid cold outbreaks. I don’t have to go back far, at all, to show what a Winter like this looks like.
These types of Winter are more predictable than your weak Niño, or at least they have been since I’ve been following the mechanics of Winter forecasting in my adult years.
If you put a over/under on number of freezes this winter, I’d put it at 8.5 for IAH going on the past decade worth of data.
An average Winter gives Harris County, 10 freezes, and my area is about 50% more. I’m handicapping to the down side due to the cycles (3-6 weeks) of a Winter like this.
Last edited by MontgomeryCoWx on Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Yes it’s very reminiscent of December 2017. Temps in the mid 30s at the surface and very cold upper and mid levels.
Interesting to check back in on this in 3-4 days.