November 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
cperk
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Re: November 2020

Post by cperk » Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:22 pm

mcheer23 wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:59 pm
EURO is quite interesting next Monday.... ;)
Come on man don’t leave us hanging. :D

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: November 2020

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:02 pm

cperk wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:22 pm
mcheer23 wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:59 pm
EURO is quite interesting next Monday.... ;)
Come on man don’t leave us hanging. :D
That it is!

Image
Team #NeverSummer

cperk
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Re: November 2020

Post by cperk » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:44 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:02 pm
cperk wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:22 pm
mcheer23 wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:59 pm
EURO is quite interesting next Monday.... ;)
Come on man don’t leave us hanging. :D
That it is!

Image
Much appreciated.

tropiKal
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Re: November 2020

Post by tropiKal » Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:41 pm

^^^Fake news!

tropiKal
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Re: November 2020

Post by tropiKal » Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:47 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:20 pm
I know, but it won’t stop the trolls and emotional ones from making bold absolutist claims ;)
Kinda like how you beg for the cold, hmmm ;)

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DoctorMu
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Re: November 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:36 pm

mcheer23 wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:59 pm
EURO is quite interesting next Monday.... ;)
Cold core low and wrap around mischief it looks like? - gotta find the full monty Euro.

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DoctorMu
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Re: November 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:36 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:02 pm
cperk wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:22 pm
mcheer23 wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:59 pm
EURO is quite interesting next Monday.... ;)
Come on man don’t leave us hanging. :D
That it is!

Image
Yeah, just saw that.

Found a Mischief triangle from Bryan to Austin to Waco. Entertaining at this point! Shades of 2017.

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DoctorMu
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Re: November 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:47 pm

.
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mischief.jpg

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: November 2020

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:15 pm

tropiKal wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:47 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:20 pm
I know, but it won’t stop the trolls and emotional ones from making bold absolutist claims ;)
Kinda like how you beg for the cold, hmmm ;)
Wanting cold, and forecasting it are two very different things. I go off things like 1+2, SOI, GOA, PDO what a typical Niña Winter looks like given the current background state....

I do believe that, overall, this winter will be mild, but these types of Winter are typically good (better than 50/50 odds) for a couple or three solid cold outbreaks. I don’t have to go back far, at all, to show what a Winter like this looks like.

These types of Winter are more predictable than your weak Niño, or at least they have been since I’ve been following the mechanics of Winter forecasting in my adult years.

If you put a over/under on number of freezes this winter, I’d put it at 8.5 for IAH going on the past decade worth of data.

An average Winter gives Harris County, 10 freezes, and my area is about 50% more. I’m handicapping to the down side due to the cycles (3-6 weeks) of a Winter like this.
Last edited by MontgomeryCoWx on Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: November 2020

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:17 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:36 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:02 pm
cperk wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:22 pm


Come on man don’t leave us hanging. :D
That it is!

Image
Yeah, just saw that.

Found a Mischief triangle from Bryan to Austin to Waco. Entertaining at this point! Shades of 2017.
Yes it’s very reminiscent of December 2017. Temps in the mid 30s at the surface and very cold upper and mid levels.

Interesting to check back in on this in 3-4 days.
Team #NeverSummer

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