Wx Infinity Forums

The longer the cold stays bottled up north, the colder we could get down here with an Arctic dip. Although with almost zero snow pack, the effect greatly diminishes.

Just talked myself back in to no excitement. The weather is affecting the deer rut as well.

Blah....

snowman65 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:00 pm Absolutely NO exitement about this fall...or winter it looks like....this is bad...

In La Niña, we typically start seeing the step down in December. Last 2 La Ninas proved that.

If you look at the 7-15 day you start to see it. Next weekend looks stormy and below average.

It is not even WINTER yet. smh

redneckweather wrote: ↑Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:46 am It is not even WINTER yet. smh

I know, but it won’t stop the trolls and emotional ones from making bold absolutist claims

GFS gave up the ghost on long-term but Canadian and Ensemble are still living the dream.

Cool air is back in the GFS forecast. Big front next weekend. Canadian and GEPS Ensemble are onboard. Euro recognized the front, but sees the impact as a little milder - closer to typical weather.

redneckweather wrote: ↑Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:46 am It is not even WINTER yet. smh

No, but it is a very weak fall (like usual). Most of us have been sweating for 7-8 months already and look forward to walking outside to weather thats not 80 degrees and humid.

There will be no winter to speak of, even in short spurts...I don't think we even see a freeze warning this year..thats my observation and I'm sticking to it. Kick me if I'm wrong but don't hate me for being right lol

snowman65 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:43 am There will be no winter to speak of, even in short spurts...I don't think we even see a freeze warning this year..thats my observation and I'm sticking to it. Kick me if I'm wrong but don't hate me for being right lol

Not only will you not be right, it’s also irresponsible to post stuff like this.

The emotional hedge posts are tiresome. If you’re going to post absolutist garbage, at least back it up with something. Hell, give us the lottery numbers why you’re at it... LOL.

I directed a handful of people to this board a couple years back that read it for enjoyment purposes because they don’t have time to understand the puzzle that is meteorology. Occasionally, I’ll get a text saying “is winter cancelled or so and so says no way the storm comes near us”.

I’ve basically told them the 3-4 people on this board to pay attention to because of the wishcasting and/or emotional contrarian posts.

EURO is quite interesting next Monday....

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:59 pm EURO is quite interesting next Monday....

Come on man don’t leave us hanging.

cperk wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:22 pm

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:59 pm EURO is quite interesting next Monday....

Come on man don’t leave us hanging.

That it is!

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:02 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:22 pm

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:59 pm EURO is quite interesting next Monday....

Come on man don’t leave us hanging.

That it is!

Much appreciated.

^^^Fake news!

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:20 pmI know, but it won’t stop the trolls and emotional ones from making bold absolutist claims

Kinda like how you beg for the cold, hmmm

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:59 pm EURO is quite interesting next Monday....

Cold core low and wrap around mischief it looks like? - gotta find the full monty Euro.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:02 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:22 pm

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:59 pm EURO is quite interesting next Monday....

Come on man don’t leave us hanging.

That it is!

Yeah, just saw that.

Found a Mischief triangle from Bryan to Austin to Waco. Entertaining at this point! Shades of 2017.

.

tropiKal wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:47 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:20 pmI know, but it won’t stop the trolls and emotional ones from making bold absolutist claims

Kinda like how you beg for the cold, hmmm

Wanting cold, and forecasting it are two very different things. I go off things like 1+2, SOI, GOA, PDO what a typical Niña Winter looks like given the current background state....

I do believe that, overall, this winter will be mild, but these types of Winter are typically good (better than 50/50 odds) for a couple or three solid cold outbreaks. I don’t have to go back far, at all, to show what a Winter like this looks like.

These types of Winter are more predictable than your weak Niño, or at least they have been since I’ve been following the mechanics of Winter forecasting in my adult years.

If you put a over/under on number of freezes this winter, I’d put it at 8.5 for IAH going on the past decade worth of data.

An average Winter gives Harris County, 10 freezes, and my area is about 50% more. I’m handicapping to the down side due to the cycles (3-6 weeks) of a Winter like this.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:36 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:02 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:22 pm

Come on man don’t leave us hanging.

That it is!

Yeah, just saw that.

Found a Mischief triangle from Bryan to Austin to Waco. Entertaining at this point! Shades of 2017.

Yes it’s very reminiscent of December 2017. Temps in the mid 30s at the surface and very cold upper and mid levels.

Interesting to check back in on this in 3-4 days.