November 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Re: November 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Nov 19, 2020 3:23 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:35 pm
Kingwood36 wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:54 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:59 pm
Pretty typical La Niña November. Similar to 2017 and we all
Know what La Niña delivered in December and January of that year.
Nothing down this way
Wrong. In Magnolia, we had an inch on something like December 7th then in mid January, we had ice then sleet then a dusting of snow on top.

We had 5 inches of snow on December 7th. Mini-Ice storm in January.

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: November 2020

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Thu Nov 19, 2020 3:45 pm

Kingwood36 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:34 am
kyzsl51 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:15 am
Kingwood36 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:10 am

Maybe yall had something...I didn't get anything where I lived
You didn't get the snow event in December? The whole city was basically shut down from the sleet storm in January as well.
The only snow I got was in 2004 on Christmas eve...nothing since then

If you’re in Kingwood, then you most certainly did. IAH was closed in January and I10 north got at least a dusting in December.
Team #NeverSummer

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: November 2020

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Thu Nov 19, 2020 3:46 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 3:23 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:35 pm
Kingwood36 wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:54 pm


Nothing down this way
Wrong. In Magnolia, we had an inch on something like December 7th then in mid January, we had ice then sleet then a dusting of snow on top.

We had 5 inches of snow on December 7th. Mini-Ice storm in January.

Yeah, CS was the winner in December. Kyle Field looked beautiful under 5 inches of snow.

I’m hoping the Ole Miss reschedule for 12/19 happens. I’d love for a snow or sleet game in Kyle. Fingers crossed.
Team #NeverSummer

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Katdaddy
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Re: November 2020

Post by Katdaddy » Fri Nov 20, 2020 7:10 am

Lots of fog across SE TX this morning with most dense fog SW of Houston. After the fog lifts expect a partly sunny warm day with a chance of showers. A warm humid weekend on the way with lots of sun.
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Pas_Bon
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Re: November 2020

Post by Pas_Bon » Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:06 am

Katdaddy wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 7:10 am
Lots of fog across SE TX this morning with most dense fog SW of Houston. After the fog lifts expect a partly sunny warm day with a chance of showers. A warm humid weekend on the way with lots of sun.
The line of demarcation between fog/no fog was stark driving out of La Marque into Galveston
Clear as day here on the island

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jasons2k
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Re: November 2020

Post by jasons2k » Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:23 pm

From Jeff:

The focus for the last several years has been on flooding and heavy rainfall with floods in some portion of TX each of the last 5 years…however the onset of moderate to strong La Nina conditions in the eastern and central Pacific appear to be swinging the state back toward a dry period.

Rainfall:
Dryness began across southwest and west Texas this summer while portions of coastal Texas saw the influences from many tropical systems including Hanna and Beta…since Beta, rainfall has been extremely limited over much of the state, and besides SE TX much of the state did not see much rainfall from the tropical system. The drought monitor released yesterday (see below) indicated a significant increase in both moderate and severe drought conditions. Rainfall is generally running 3.0-6.0 inches below normal over SE TX except for portions of Harris County that saw heavy rainfall during TS Beta. At the end of August 36% of the state was not experiencing drought conditions and that has decreased to only 3%. 97% of the state is currently in some sort of drought conditions with the worse areas across southwest and west Texas, but significant expansion has occurred near Matagorda Bay and the I-35 corridor of central Texas. The current level of drought and severity across Texas has not been seen since 2013.

Fire Weather:
Another measure of dryness and drought conditions as well as wildfire potential is the KBDI values. These values range from 0 to 800 and indicate the depth of moisture in the ground below the surface…0 is fully saturated and 800 is no moisture to a depth of 8 inches. Vegetation health begins to decrease with values over the 500-600 range and the wildfire threat increases especially with values over 600. In the last several weeks, values across SE TX have continued to increase with many areas north of HWY 105 in the 600-700 range and most other areas in the 500-600 range (see the graphic below). The countywide average for Harris county is currently 533. Earlier this week very low humidity combined with dry fine fuels (grasses) that resulted in a series of grass fire over the area mainly focused in the Walker, Trinity, Liberty, and Polk Counties areas. Fire spread was mainly in the fine grasses and some of the smaller ladder fuels, but for the most part large fuels are not yet dry enough to burn significantly and this is support by recent longer ERC values indicating health of larger fuels remains good at this time. Low level moisture has returned to the area and overnight RH recovery has been very good the last few mornings with recent fog being reported which is helping wet the fine fuels. As long as southerly flow is in place and RH values remain high, fire threat and spread will be moderate, however any incoming strong cold fronts that produce significant drops in RH values will and gusty winds will result in near Red Flag Fire conditions over the area as fine fuels will rapidly dry. Several counties have issued burn bans over the state with recent additions in SE TX (see map below).

Outlook:
The upper air pattern strongly correlates to La Nina with 500mb ridging anchored over the Gulf of Mexico from S TX to Cuba keeping our area diverted from incoming cold fronts and rain making systems. What looked to be an active period next week is slowly decreasing both “cold” and “moisture” wise in the more recent model runs as is typical in La Nina winters that support dryness and mild conditions in the southern US and especially the southern plains and TX. CPC outlooks for the next 2 weeks indicate below average rainfall and above average temperatures and similar outlooks continue well into the next 1 month and 3 month periods. Given that drought conditions are likely to continue to worsen across the entire state with expansion of moderate, severe, extreme, and exceptional drought conditions. Vegetation health will continue to decline, but likely at a slower rate than during the hot summer months when heat is maximized.

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jasons2k
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Re: November 2020

Post by jasons2k » Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:42 pm


Cpv17
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Re: November 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:52 pm

kyzsl51 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:15 am
Kingwood36 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:10 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:35 pm


Wrong. In Magnolia, we had an inch on something like December 7th then in mid January, we had ice then sleet then a dusting of snow on top.
Maybe yall had something...I didn't get anything where I lived
You didn't get the snow event in December? The whole city was basically shut down from the sleet storm in January as well.
We didn’t really get much from that event here in Wharton either but it was really cold!

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Re: November 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:54 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 3:45 pm
Kingwood36 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:34 am
kyzsl51 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:15 am

You didn't get the snow event in December? The whole city was basically shut down from the sleet storm in January as well.
The only snow I got was in 2004 on Christmas eve...nothing since then

If you’re in Kingwood, then you most certainly did. IAH was closed in January and I10 north got at least a dusting in December.
He resides in Freeport, not Kingwood. I know I always thought it was Kingwood as well.

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snowman65
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Re: November 2020

Post by snowman65 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:00 pm

Absolutely NO exitement about this fall...or winter it looks like....this is bad...

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