La Niña’s can produce major artic outbreaks than El Niño’s can’t. I’m sure most of y’all know that but there’s always a chance for that when having a La Niña.redneckweather wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 9:00 amTypical La Nina but I think we all will be in for a wintry surprise or two this winter which isn't here yet. I'm not too fond of El Nino winters down here. They typically give us cold (not cold enough for wintry precip) and wet weather which gets in the bones. Those deep Canadian fronts just don't penetrate far enough south in El Nino winters to give us a good shot of cold air for wintry precip, at least it seems that way to me.
I'm liking our chances this winter where fronts can't penetrate deep into the south. All we will need is some moisture to work with.
November 2020
Yeah, saying winter is already over is like saying “season cancelled” in July when there is a lull in tropical activity.
Some of the longest freezes occurred in La Nina winter like in January/February 1951 and February 1989. February 1895 and February 1899 occurred in La Nina winter.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:39 amLa Niña’s can produce major artic outbreaks than El Niño’s can’t. I’m sure most of y’all know that but there’s always a chance for that when having a La Niña.redneckweather wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 9:00 amTypical La Nina but I think we all will be in for a wintry surprise or two this winter which isn't here yet. I'm not too fond of El Nino winters down here. They typically give us cold (not cold enough for wintry precip) and wet weather which gets in the bones. Those deep Canadian fronts just don't penetrate far enough south in El Nino winters to give us a good shot of cold air for wintry precip, at least it seems that way to me.
I'm liking our chances this winter where fronts can't penetrate deep into the south. All we will need is some moisture to work with.
When is the next chance for any meaningful rain? I dont think I've seen any at my house since September.
I’m not sure but I can tell you the next two weeks look pretty dry so maybe sometime after that but I doubt it. Like I said a while back, I think we’re about to be in a drought.
It's true that previous La Nina's have brought wintry events. But by and large, they literally have to thread the needle - upper level support largely is north away from SE Texas during such winters. Even the subtropical jet would barely have an effect.
So it's going to be pure wall-to-wall heat and sunshine during this winter, souped up with the heating planet. Because subtropical highs are displaced northward in La Nina's, things will eventually become solidly wetter during summer (see: 2012).
So it's going to be pure wall-to-wall heat and sunshine during this winter, souped up with the heating planet. Because subtropical highs are displaced northward in La Nina's, things will eventually become solidly wetter during summer (see: 2012).
What is ETA doing now?
you know things are extremely dull when there aren't any posts in here for 4 days....in mid November lol
ETA is the only thing worth watching. The forecast was one of the biggest busts I’ve seen. My relatives down on the Fl West Coast have been put through an emotional shredder this week.
you know things are extremely dull when there aren't any posts in here for 4 days....in mid November lol
Except me! I'm liking this hot weather, we need this to continue all winter long.Hot and humid with zero rain for the next week. Of course nobody is posting.
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juliawesley
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I love winter, I prefer the cold
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juliawesley
- Posts: 2
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I love the hot weather. I hope it continues
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Are we going to cool down anytime soon?
Yes. If you consider 40’s and 50’s for lows a cool down.
A weak cold front on Sunday. Iffy as far as rain. slight chance of rain on Sunday. Dier after that with lows more seasonal. The burgeoning drought will be the big story as we head toward "winter."
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Dense fog impacted most of the terminals last night and will
continue to bring LIFR to IFR conditions through the mid morning.
Then visibilities dramatically improve, but MVFR CIGs may stick
around across the region through the early afternoon. High clouds
will continue through the day, but VFR conditions are expected to
prevail. CIGs are expected to lower again tonight with heights
around 2000ft. Patchy fog does look possible again tonight, but
not as widespread as last night/this morning. Light southeasterly
flow will continue through the period.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 321 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020/...
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday Night]...
Areas of dense fog developed across the southwestern counties
last night thanks to light winds and high moisture content
resulting in the need of a Dense Fog Advisory. Like the past days,
this fog should dissipate by the mid-morning with the rising sun.
Patchy dense fog will again be a concern tonight across these
southwestern counties. Most of the area today will be shower-
free, but areas around Matagorda Bay may see some isolated light
showers this afternoon lasting into the early evening. Saturday
will remain fairly dry across the area, but the chance of showers
does increase late Saturday night going into Sunday morning across
the northern counties as a cold front moves across the area (more
on this in the long term discussion below).
The unseasonably warm weather will continue through the short term
with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows
in the mid to upper 60s.
Fowler
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
A cold front will race across SE TX Sunday morning into the early
afternoon. PW values are progged to reach 1.40 inches on Sunday
morning with a shallow saturated layer only extending to around 850
mb with drier air above this layer with strong capping in the 850-
700 mb layer. A broken line of showers will be possible as the front
pushes through the region. Will carry isolated thunder but the
capping looks pretty strong so the dominant weather type looks to be
mainly showers. Cold air advection doesn`t look all that strong
behind the front and with some sunshine expected by mid-late
afternoon, temperatures should be able to rebound back into the mid
70`s north and around 80 south. Drier air will advect into the area
Sunday night but forecast soundings show some mstr trapped beneath
the cap and there could be more cloud cover than suggested by the
blends. As such, leaned a bit warmer for MinT on Monday morning in
case clouds develop.
High pressure will build into the southern plains and move across
the Ozark plateau through Wednesday. It will be cooler but with 850
mb remaining between 13-14 C, feel afternoon temps will still be
able to warm into the mid/upper 70`s. This is still above climo but
closer to normal than the past week or so. The high moves east on
Thursday and a return flow redevelops with an increase in low level
moisture. Lows Thursday morning will probably occur in the evening
with steady or slowly warming temperatures after midnight.
Temperatures will trend warmer toward the end of the week as a 590
mb ridge amplifies over Texas. Surface high pressure and the
building 500 mb ridge will keep rain chances next week to near
zero.
43
.MARINE...
Some patchy dense fog developed overnight in Matagorda Bay
requiring a Marine Dense Fog Advisory. Conditions should rapidly
improve by the mid morning with the rising sun. There is fog
potential again tonight, but does not look to be as widespread as
tonight as winds remain slightly more elevated. Onshore flow is
expected to continue through Sunday morning, but a cold front is
expected to move through the coastal waters late Sunday. This will
usher in moderate to strong northeasterly flow by Monday lasting
through midweek.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 66 83 63 75 / 20 10 20 20 20
Houston (IAH) 83 66 82 68 80 / 10 10 10 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 76 71 78 71 80 / 10 10 10 10 30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Dense fog impacted most of the terminals last night and will
continue to bring LIFR to IFR conditions through the mid morning.
Then visibilities dramatically improve, but MVFR CIGs may stick
around across the region through the early afternoon. High clouds
will continue through the day, but VFR conditions are expected to
prevail. CIGs are expected to lower again tonight with heights
around 2000ft. Patchy fog does look possible again tonight, but
not as widespread as last night/this morning. Light southeasterly
flow will continue through the period.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 321 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020/...
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday Night]...
Areas of dense fog developed across the southwestern counties
last night thanks to light winds and high moisture content
resulting in the need of a Dense Fog Advisory. Like the past days,
this fog should dissipate by the mid-morning with the rising sun.
Patchy dense fog will again be a concern tonight across these
southwestern counties. Most of the area today will be shower-
free, but areas around Matagorda Bay may see some isolated light
showers this afternoon lasting into the early evening. Saturday
will remain fairly dry across the area, but the chance of showers
does increase late Saturday night going into Sunday morning across
the northern counties as a cold front moves across the area (more
on this in the long term discussion below).
The unseasonably warm weather will continue through the short term
with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows
in the mid to upper 60s.
Fowler
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
A cold front will race across SE TX Sunday morning into the early
afternoon. PW values are progged to reach 1.40 inches on Sunday
morning with a shallow saturated layer only extending to around 850
mb with drier air above this layer with strong capping in the 850-
700 mb layer. A broken line of showers will be possible as the front
pushes through the region. Will carry isolated thunder but the
capping looks pretty strong so the dominant weather type looks to be
mainly showers. Cold air advection doesn`t look all that strong
behind the front and with some sunshine expected by mid-late
afternoon, temperatures should be able to rebound back into the mid
70`s north and around 80 south. Drier air will advect into the area
Sunday night but forecast soundings show some mstr trapped beneath
the cap and there could be more cloud cover than suggested by the
blends. As such, leaned a bit warmer for MinT on Monday morning in
case clouds develop.
High pressure will build into the southern plains and move across
the Ozark plateau through Wednesday. It will be cooler but with 850
mb remaining between 13-14 C, feel afternoon temps will still be
able to warm into the mid/upper 70`s. This is still above climo but
closer to normal than the past week or so. The high moves east on
Thursday and a return flow redevelops with an increase in low level
moisture. Lows Thursday morning will probably occur in the evening
with steady or slowly warming temperatures after midnight.
Temperatures will trend warmer toward the end of the week as a 590
mb ridge amplifies over Texas. Surface high pressure and the
building 500 mb ridge will keep rain chances next week to near
zero.
43
.MARINE...
Some patchy dense fog developed overnight in Matagorda Bay
requiring a Marine Dense Fog Advisory. Conditions should rapidly
improve by the mid morning with the rising sun. There is fog
potential again tonight, but does not look to be as widespread as
tonight as winds remain slightly more elevated. Onshore flow is
expected to continue through Sunday morning, but a cold front is
expected to move through the coastal waters late Sunday. This will
usher in moderate to strong northeasterly flow by Monday lasting
through midweek.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 66 83 63 75 / 20 10 20 20 20
Houston (IAH) 83 66 82 68 80 / 10 10 10 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 76 71 78 71 80 / 10 10 10 10 30
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Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
113 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020
TXZ212-213-227-132000-
Waller TX-Inland Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-
113 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020
...Small but potent shower moving towards Katy...
At 111 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong shower over
Fulshear, or 7 miles southeast of Brookshire, moving north at 5 mph.
Briefly heavy rain is likely in the small core of this shower, as
well as winds up to 30 mph will be possible with this storm. A few
pea-sized hailstones may be possible, but are unlikely.
Locations impacted include...
Katy, Brookshire, Fulshear, Pattison, eastern Weston Lakes and Cinco
Ranch.
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
113 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020
TXZ212-213-227-132000-
Waller TX-Inland Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-
113 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020
...Small but potent shower moving towards Katy...
At 111 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong shower over
Fulshear, or 7 miles southeast of Brookshire, moving north at 5 mph.
Briefly heavy rain is likely in the small core of this shower, as
well as winds up to 30 mph will be possible with this storm. A few
pea-sized hailstones may be possible, but are unlikely.
Locations impacted include...
Katy, Brookshire, Fulshear, Pattison, eastern Weston Lakes and Cinco
Ranch.
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