November 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Cpv17
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There looks to be a big storm developing on the Euro at day 10 with significant ridging over the GOA. Something to watch.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:47 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:45 am Extended mild conditions for the first half of November. That's actually pretty typical. Can't say this in most place in the country. South Central/Brazos Valley's best weather is usually in November. The last couple of years we had really humid an unseasonable wx. Blah! We may have more normal weather before La Nina does it's thing (which is not always its norm).

Winter disappoints too often. Summer is what it is. College Station has less capping than HGX so there's one eye open at all times during severe season.
I’m not so sure about that. Models are hinting at something (possibly significant) in around 10 days or so.
Another EPO tank
Team #NeverSummer
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:50 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:47 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:45 am Extended mild conditions for the first half of November. That's actually pretty typical. Can't say this in most place in the country. South Central/Brazos Valley's best weather is usually in November. The last couple of years we had really humid an unseasonable wx. Blah! We may have more normal weather before La Nina does it's thing (which is not always its norm).

Winter disappoints too often. Summer is what it is. College Station has less capping than HGX so there's one eye open at all times during severe season.
I’m not so sure about that. Models are hinting at something (possibly significant) in around 10 days or so.
Another EPO tank
I'm seeing mostly nothing until the 8-10th as of 12z.

Zeta remnants are off the coast of NC now. Wow. Good riddance.
Cromagnum
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Nice (brief) spurt of upper 40s but looks to get no higher than mid 70s this coming week. Should be nice.
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:50 pm Nice (brief) spurt of upper 40s but looks to get no higher than mid 70s this coming week. Should be nice.
Alright, so for all of those who complain that we have two weeks of winter and then 50 weeks of summer hell every year, I present to you the seven day forecast. It doesn’t get much nicer than this.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:13 am
Cromagnum wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:50 pm Nice (brief) spurt of upper 40s but looks to get no higher than mid 70s this coming week. Should be nice.
Alright, so for all of those who complain that we have two weeks of winter and then 50 weeks of summer hell every year, I present to you the seven day forecast. It doesn’t get much nicer than this.
Chamber of Commerce weather. Serenity Now! until possibly the 10th.
Cpv17
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Drought may be coming with the way things are looking. Hopefully I’m wrong.
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Ptarmigan
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Super Typhoon Goni made landfall on the Catanduanes, Philippines.

Image

Goni made landfall as a Category 5 super typhoon. Now it is a tropical storm.
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2220web.txt

Code: Select all

WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 019    
   DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 22W
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 121.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 121.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 14.6N 118.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 14.8N 116.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 14.9N 114.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 14.8N 113.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 14.5N 111.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 14.1N 109.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 13.3N 106.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 120.6E.
01NOV20. TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 32 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DOWNGRADED
FROM TYPHOON. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 
021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (ATSANI) WARNINGS 
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
The area east of the Philippines is Tropical Depression 23W (Atsani)
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Ptarmigan
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:50 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:47 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:45 am Extended mild conditions for the first half of November. That's actually pretty typical. Can't say this in most place in the country. South Central/Brazos Valley's best weather is usually in November. The last couple of years we had really humid an unseasonable wx. Blah! We may have more normal weather before La Nina does it's thing (which is not always its norm).

Winter disappoints too often. Summer is what it is. College Station has less capping than HGX so there's one eye open at all times during severe season.
I’m not so sure about that. Models are hinting at something (possibly significant) in around 10 days or so.
Another EPO tank
I looked at the 500 millibar level for geopotential height. I looked at dates where Houston saw freezes in November.
https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/compo ... .day.v2.pl

There is ridging over Alaska and Northwestern Canada, which is negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). EPO has played a major role in cold blasts, even if North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is positive.

Interesting some decades see more freezes than other decades.
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snowman65
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don't be surprised lol
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Cpv17
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Eta is looking like a very serious storm. Could potentially impact the Gulf coast as well. Some of the model runs are bombing her out big time in the western Caribbean heading towards the Gulf.
TexasBreeze
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Don't normally post about systems so far away, but ETA has a satellite estimate of an 8.1 which could mean a sub 900mb system and greater than 180 mph. Unbelievable...
unome
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:04 pm Eta is looking like a very serious storm. Could potentially impact the Gulf coast as well. Some of the model runs are bombing her out big time in the western Caribbean heading towards the Gulf.
150 mph & strengthening, this is devastating for Central America, my heart weeps

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Eta

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 82.4 West. Eta is moving toward
the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through early Tuesday. A slower westward or
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by Tuesday afternoon
and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within
the Hurricane Warning area early Tuesday. The center of Eta is
forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through
Wednesday night, and then move across central portions of Honduras
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast
until Eta reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Weakening will begin
after the cyclone moves inland. An Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Eta.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
area tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane
Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible
in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding are also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi/Papin
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Ptarmigan
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TexasBreeze wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:25 pm Don't normally post about systems so far away, but ETA has a satellite estimate of an 8.1 which could mean a sub 900mb system and greater than 180 mph. Unbelievable...
I would not be surprised if it is that strong.
davidiowx
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Eta is insane.. it’s Nov 2nd. Just Wow
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DoctorMu
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davidiowx wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:35 pm Eta is insane.. it’s Nov 2nd. Just Wow
Man, Eta is wound tight. Hope as many escape her path as possible.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif
Cpv17
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The 0z GFS is just plain silly. It’s November! What the heck? Lol
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jasons2k
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From a friend
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tireman4
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What a year. November and STILL landfalling hurricanes. Gracious
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Ptarmigan
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tireman4 wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:04 pm What a year. November and STILL landfalling hurricanes. Gracious
I would not be surprised if we see more storms form into November. November has produced some big storms. Lenny comes to mind.
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