October 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Re: October 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:37 am

Andrew wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:15 am
Time to see how far south the front makes it tonight. The mesoscale models all indicate that it will make it at least to Harris County and possibly to the coast. Very tricky forecast for these next couple of days.

The rain has been a bust so far in CLL. Very spotty stuff west of us.

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Re: October 2020

Post by Kingwood36 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:31 pm

So is this cool front blowing in or not?

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Belmer
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Re: October 2020

Post by Belmer » Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:15 pm

As is usually the case with these densely cold air masses, it is a bit ahead of schedule than what the global models (GFS/Euro) showed. 00z runs still had the front along I-35. It's currently just pushing through Brenham. CLL in upper 50s. Front should begin entering western Harris Co. after dusk and through Houston around midnight.

Don't see the front pushing all the way through SETX until Wednesday evening. The upper-low over the southwest won't start ejecting northeast until Wednesday midday, at that time Zeta will be approaching the north-central Gulf Coast. Due to the upper-low parked for now and Zeta's pressure influence, front should stall between I-45 and-Beaumont before retreating westward some as Zeta moves onshore. Wednesday night should dip into mid 40s with clearing skies and much drier air.

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Vis Satellite showing station plots
Blake
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Re: October 2020

Post by Kingwood36 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:06 pm

Belmer wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:15 pm
As is usually the case with these densely cold air masses, it is a bit ahead of schedule than what the global models (GFS/Euro) showed. 00z runs still had the front along I-35. It's currently just pushing through Brenham. CLL in upper 50s. Front should begin entering western Harris Co. after dusk and through Houston around midnight.

Don't see the front pushing all the way through SETX until Wednesday evening. The upper-low over the southwest won't start ejecting northeast until Wednesday midday, at that time Zeta will be approaching the north-central Gulf Coast. Due to the upper-low parked for now and Zeta's pressure influence, front should stall between I-45 and-Beaumont before retreating westward some as Zeta moves onshore. Wednesday night should dip into mid 40s with clearing skies and much drier air.


satellite.png
So it won't push off the coast?

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Re: October 2020

Post by TXWeatherMan » Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:13 pm

Kingwood36 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:06 pm
Belmer wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:15 pm
As is usually the case with these densely cold air masses, it is a bit ahead of schedule than what the global models (GFS/Euro) showed. 00z runs still had the front along I-35. It's currently just pushing through Brenham. CLL in upper 50s. Front should begin entering western Harris Co. after dusk and through Houston around midnight.

Don't see the front pushing all the way through SETX until Wednesday evening. The upper-low over the southwest won't start ejecting northeast until Wednesday midday, at that time Zeta will be approaching the north-central Gulf Coast. Due to the upper-low parked for now and Zeta's pressure influence, front should stall between I-45 and-Beaumont before retreating westward some as Zeta moves onshore. Wednesday night should dip into mid 40s with clearing skies and much drier air.


satellite.png
So it won't push off the coast?
Not until Late Wednesday

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Re: October 2020

Post by JDsGN » Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:27 am

Looking at temps it looks like it pushed a bit further towards the coast than expected? Feels fantastic this morning in Cypress

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Re: October 2020

Post by jasons2k » Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:20 am

Yep, you can see the front on visible satellite. It has pushed offshore and it’s ever so slowly still drifting southeast.

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tireman4
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Re: October 2020

Post by tireman4 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:42 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 271608
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1108 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Stratus deck at the coast and slightly inland, generally in the
vicinity of the stalled, diffuse front, is beginning to scatter
out late this morning. While I`ve taken a bit off the edge of temp
forecasts there, still have confidence they`ll make it into the
70s easily as sun starts to break in.

Farther inland is a different story. Stratus with ceilings below
1000 feet remain well-entrenched, and Caldwell remains as cold as
43 degrees. Have hacked at temperature forecasts significantly, as
improvement has yet to even begin for the northwestern half of the
area, and by the time enough sun could even start to think of
cracking through (if at all), it will be too late to boost
temperatures a significantly.

Otherwise, things are pretty on track - for much of the area, a
kind of mucky, cloudy, day with patchy fog, drizzle, and perhaps
even a light shower here and there - though the best chance for
measurable rain is likely tomorrow when the upper low moves
across the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 608 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday night]...
At 4 am...surface analysis, radar and satellite indicate a
shallow frontal boundary situated from roughly 20NM south of
Matagorda Bay to Freeport to League City to Liberty -- a touch
further south and east than most models indicate. It will likely
meander in that same general area today and tonight with the upper
level trough lagging well to the west. There is currently almost
a 20 degree temp difference between extreme nw parts of Harris Co
and the se parts close to the Galveston Bay. There will be without
a doubt some noticeable forecast temperature busts with the
subtle geographic frontal fluctuations. Moist southerly flow
overrunning the cooler airmass should keep clouds and in place and
limit much of a warm-up north and west of the boundary. Iso/sct
pockets of precip can be expected at times as that same llvl flow
brings a gradual increase in PW values from the Gulf throughout
the day.

TS Zeta over the Yucatan will be moving into the open waters of the
Gulf today and restrengthen back into a hurricane. Anticipate it to
eventually increase in forward speed and maintain about the same
track that has been advertised (nw track into the wcntl Gulf late
Tue night...taking a north then ne turn and making landfall near the
southeast La coast late Wed). Confidence is fairly high that the
main impacts along the upper Texas coast will be marine hazards.

We`ll probably see some periods of rainfall Wed as the upper trof to
the west approaches and large scale lift increases. Can`t rule out a
few tstms. We should become dry slotted late Wed and Wed night.
Skies will clear from the west, chances of precip will come to an
end, and deeper column of dry/cool air will finally push thru all of
the CWA with breezy nw winds. 47


.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday Night]...
The main weather concern in the extended is breezy to windy
conditions Thursday and a warming trend into next week.

A closed upper low currently over the Desert Southwest will move
north of the area on Thursday, leaving our region over a tight
pressure gradient. It will be a windy day with continuing cold air
advection behind the departing front and increasing pressure
gradient as the aforementioned closed low moves into the Lower MS
Valley. Momentum transfer within forecast soundings suggests the
potential for wind gusts around 25+ kts near the top of the mixed
layer. Therefore, have raised winds above the National Blend to
produce gusts around 15 to 25 knots (inland). Will likely need a
wind headline for Thursday as time approaches. Cooler conditions
are also expected as temperatures range around 10 degrees below
average. Daytime highs will mainly be in the 60s. Coldest readings
are expected across our far northwestern counties.

Dry zonal flow aloft turns to the northwest Friday into the weekend
as a ridge of high pressure builds in over the southern Plains. This
will result in drier conditions with a gradual warming trend through
the upcoming week. Highs temperatures will mainly range in the 70s.
Overnight lows from the upper 40s far inland to upper 60s along the
coast. 05

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR and some LIFR conditions with low cigs, fog, -dz
across the region early this morning with a shallow frontal
boundary is located from roughly 20NM south of Matagorda to San
Luis Pass to Anahuac. It should meander in this general vicinity
for the next 24 hours or so. Aviation conditions right near the
front will vary with its position...and unfortunately this impacts
most of the metro airports. In general, the 12z set of TAFs will
be more pessimistic than the previous as the front is a bit
further se of earlier guidance. Will indicate some improvement to
MVFR this afternoon...but confidence is very low - it could just
as easily remain status quo or even go VFR for a while should the
eastern periphery temporarily modify for a while with heating.
Further north of the metro, steep saturated frontal inversion
should keep poor conditions in place for the next 24+ hours. Moist
flow over the cooler air will produce sct pockets of light precip
at times, but chose not to over-complicate TAFs w/ the mention
considering already low cigs in place. Same type pattern expected
tonight, though should see increasing rain chances from the west
late tonight and into Wed as an upper level trof edges closer to
the region. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate east to northeast winds are expected today as a cold front
slowly moves through the waters. Gusts of 15 to 20 knots will be
possible at times. The main period of impactful weather will be
Wednesday through Thursday as the front continues to push through
and Tropical Storm Zeta approaches the northern Gulf Coast. The
combination of a passing front, Zeta and thermal gradient over the
waters will produce strong winds. Winds as high as 25-30 knots will
be possible offshore. Additionally, elevated tides and seas from 5
to 10 ft are possible through Thursday night. Marine conditions will
gradually improve late Thursday night as a high pressure builds in
and dominates weather conditions into the weekend. 05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 53 45 56 43 64 / 20 60 70 0 0
Houston (IAH) 73 60 66 49 66 / 20 50 70 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 77 70 72 55 69 / 20 50 60 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Luchs
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...47
MARINE...05

BlueJay
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Re: October 2020

Post by BlueJay » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:16 pm

I am not a fan of "mucky, cloudy, day with patchy fog, drizzle, and perhaps
even a light shower here and there " kind of days...

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DoctorMu
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Re: October 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:25 pm

Laura
Delta
Zeta

Near the same setup (just a bit east) with 'Cane and front, but 10°F cooler each time! We receive the requisite 0.2 in of rain. lol

Fortunately evaporation is low this time of year. A/C and water OFF. Brown patch has a chokehold on the yard anyway despite multiple fungicide treatments. Sunny and beautiful weather after tomorrow through the weekend!

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