October 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
TXWeatherMan
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Re: October 2020

Post by TXWeatherMan » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:42 am

Cromagnum wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:20 am
Oh hey. More dry dryness and heat for Texas. Great.
Doesn’t look like this storm is going to cause that for us this time.

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Re: October 2020

Post by txbear » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:51 am

DoctorMu wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 4:28 pm
60s and sunny, now partly cloudy. No A/C. No watering.

All is good, even if brown patch is back again, regardless of fungicide application.

Fly in the ointment? Yes, another tropical system wandering into the Gulf. EFFFFF. Deja vu all over again all over again. Should reach hurricane strength and head yet again to the Louisiana coast. Models are in general agreement. Chance of some impact along the coast (and screwing up the NW flow over the Brazos Valley). Go away.
So help me if zeta pulls a delta and flubbs this patter we have no that actually keeps things in a normal fall setting for this part of the state. Sick of this nonsense.

Friends up to the northwest are gonna have a bit of fun though with essentially guaranteed wintry weather. Jealous in a way, but hope that winter doesn’t spend it all in one week in October. Yes La Niña blah blah blah.

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DoctorMu
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Re: October 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:34 am

Confidence for Tuesday's front and Houston is low. The front should reach the BrazosValley and at least down to NW Harris Co.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1106 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.UPDATE...

Low ceilings and mist is lingering around a bit more than originally
expected. Higher pressure continues to ridge into the CWA increasing
stability. For the majority of the CWA, low stratus will linger
through the day and night. Some portions of the southern CWA will
see some breaks as temperatures have a chance of breaking the
inversion allowing some drier air to mix down and clear out the
skies for a short time. Winds will continue to shift southeasterly
through the afternoon as another cold front will approach early this
week. 35


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020/

SHORT TERM [through Monday]...

Overall, warm air advection continues to spread over the region as a
warm frontal boundary lifts northeast into eastern TX. This is
associated to a surface low pressure system located over the Texas
Panhandle area. With WAA in place, our region continues to sit under
an area of a relatively stagnant and saturated airmass at low
levels. This scenario is expected to persist for most of the day,
with low to mid cloud cover being slow to thin/clear. Given light
winds and poor mixing, patchy fog will also be possible through
early this morning. Drizzle or light rain cannot be ruled out where
the stratus deck is thickest, but most will remain dry due to
limited lift in the stratus layer. At this time, drizzle/light rain
looks possible along the coast and east of I-45. 925 to 850 hPa
temperatures warm into the upper teens Celsius, therefore warmer
temperatures are expected today. Highs will range from the mid 70s
to mid 80s.

Despite some clearing this evening at some locations, will continue
with a pessimistic forecast regarding cloud cover tonight. Clouds
may stick around or increase overnight with the return of a
moist/warm boundary layer air mass.

The aforementioned surface low will continue to move eastward into
eastern TX on Monday, dragging a slow-moving cold front across our
region through mid-week. Prior to the arrival of the cold front,
cloud may begin to increase, again, on Monday. Southerly winds should
keep temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. 05

LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Sunday]...

The forecast for the long term period will be mainly concerned with
the next slow moving weak cold front, and we`ll also need to keep
our eyes on newly formed Tropical Storm Zeta. For the front, there
is a lot of uncertainty and low forecaster confidence as to when the
boundary works its way into our area and how far south it gets due
to a considerable spread in the models. The current forecast will
show the boundary entering our northwest counties late Monday
afternoon or early Monday evening and eventually making slow progress
toward the coast Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Cooler
temperatures can be expected behind the front, and temperatures will
be warmer ahead of it. The location of the front will have a
significant impact on the temperature forecast, and anticipate to
see forecast changes over the next several days. A mid/upper level
trough out west will eventually lift out and help to move our front
off to the east, and this will bring an extended quiet weather pattern
back to our area beginning on Thursday. The trough will also be a
player in the future track on Tropical Storm Zeta. The current
forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Zeta moving toward
the Yucatan Peninsula and strengthening into a hurricane Monday
night and then working its way into the central Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday night. This track forecast will help to lift Zeta northward
with an eventual landfall somewhere between the Louisiana coast and
the Florida Panhandle. If this track holds, the only effects felt
for our area will likely be an increase in winds/seas and a building
rip current risk across our coastal waters. Of course, please keep
yourself updated over the next several days with the latest Zeta
advisory package from the National Hurricane Center. 42

MARINE...

Onshore winds returning to the area today will strengthen this afternoon
through tomorrow morning. Caution flags are anticipated for the wind
increase and associated building seas. East to northeast winds will
set up Monday night through Wednesday morning as a cold front lingers
near the coast. North to northwest winds can be expected Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday night after the front moves off to the east. Mariners
should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Zeta that is forecast
to intensify into a hurricane and move into the central Gulf of Mexico
Wednesday morning. This track and intensity forecast could bring
increasing seas to our area around midweek.

&&

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Re: October 2020

Post by TexasBreeze » Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:56 pm

Euro 12 brings Zeta in as a weak system at the TxLa border. Not even near agreement with the majority models (Se LA).

Andrew
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Re: October 2020

Post by Andrew » Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:15 am

Time to see how far south the front makes it tonight. The mesoscale models all indicate that it will make it at least to Harris County and possibly to the coast. Very tricky forecast for these next couple of days.
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Re: October 2020

Post by txbear » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:44 am

Andrew wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:15 am
Time to see how far south the front makes it tonight. The mesoscale models all indicate that it will make it at least to Harris County and possibly to the coast. Very tricky forecast for these next couple of days.
Andrew - seems like we would need it to push as far south as possible to keep Zeta from buckling the current N/NW pattern over the area. Otherwise, we'd be stuck on the hot and dry subsidence side like Delta, which I could really go without.

Kingwood36
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Re: October 2020

Post by Kingwood36 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:54 am

Kinda jealous of the snow in the panhandle...

Cromagnum
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Re: October 2020

Post by Cromagnum » Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:58 am

Andrew wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:15 am
Time to see how far south the front makes it tonight. The mesoscale models all indicate that it will make it at least to Harris County and possibly to the coast. Very tricky forecast for these next couple of days.
Well whatever happens, hopefully we get some danged rain down here.

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Re: October 2020

Post by Kingwood36 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:16 am

I know you guys cant forecast a long ways out but any good estimates to what the temps would be on nov 7th? Anymore cold fronts in the long range or will it be hot as hell

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DoctorMu
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Re: October 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:36 am

Kingwood36 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:16 am
I know you guys cant forecast a long ways out but any good estimates to what the temps would be on nov 7th? Anymore cold fronts in the long range or will it be hot as hell
My guess. Mostly sunny. Mid 70s. Low about 60°F.

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