October 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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The hot weather is from Hurricane Delta.

Interestingly after Hurricane Jerry made landfall in 1989, it got cold and Houston recorded the earlier 32°F on record.
Cromagnum
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Just what I wanted to do. Drag the water hose around when its nearly 90 degrees in mid October and hasn't had measurable rain in 3 weeks.
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DoctorMu
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Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:36 pm The hot weather is from Hurricane Delta.

Interestingly after Hurricane Jerry made landfall in 1989, it got cold and Houston recorded the earlier 32°F on record.
Yeah, it's funny. On the East Coast (ex. North Carolina) it's clearing, drier and cooler after a hurricane.

In Texas it gets hot as hell!

We have a windshift this morning bringing in northerly drier air by this evening. Hope it makes it down to Houston. Big front on Friday.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
tropiKal
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TXWeatherMan wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:10 pmHope that doesn’t happen, and I doubt it will anytime soon.
We'll see. They've seen 100F in February right on the Gulf at Tulum and Villahermosa. And it's already reached Texas, even Laredo and McAllen have seen 100F in February!
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tropiKal wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:25 pm
TXWeatherMan wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:10 pmHope that doesn’t happen, and I doubt it will anytime soon.
We'll see. They've seen 100F in February right on the Gulf at Tulum and Villahermosa. And it's already reached Texas, even Laredo and McAllen have seen 100F in February!
If it does that’s when I’ll move lol
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DoctorMu
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Dewpoint of 51° now with a northerly breeze. What a relief.
Pas_Bon
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What a shock.....ugh......forecast has pulled away from those really cool temps this weekend and next week. It’s starting to feel like we will never get cold again. Lol
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djmike
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So far....NWS still shows 50 for me Friday night... Hopefully it holds.
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
redneckweather
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Yep, GFS totally took away the strong front for Monday that previously showed lows well into the 40's for next week with staying power. She gone. Crazy.
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DoctorMu
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djmike wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:49 am So far....NWS still shows 50 for me Friday night... Hopefully it holds.
It's TWC and GFS vs. Canadian and NOAA (a little cooler)

The forecasts on smart phones are usually TWC-related. Historically, they are rather iffy beyond 72 hours..

I will say the NW counties will likely see more relief than Houston-Galveston on Friday and next week.
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Ptarmigan
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I hope there is clear skies.
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snowman65
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Pas_Bon wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:06 am What a shock.....ugh......forecast has pulled away from those really cool temps this weekend and next week. It’s starting to feel like we will never get cold again. Lol
Not shocked at all...totally expected. It will be doing this all winter. You can blame:

1. La Nina
2. 2020
3. Nancy Pelosi
4. All of the above.
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DoctorMu
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:16 am
Pas_Bon wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:06 am What a shock.....ugh......forecast has pulled away from those really cool temps this weekend and next week. It’s starting to feel like we will never get cold again. Lol
Not shocked at all...totally expected. It will be doing this all winter. You can blame:

1. La Nina
2. 2020
3. Nancy Pelosi
4. All of the above.
NOAA has given up the ghost.

The biggest change I've noticed (due to cc) over the past 30 years in Texas are warmer Falls, often more humid. Summers are about the same. Severe Season in the Spring is a tad earlier. Winters slightly more variable. Fall is the big difference.
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:30 am
snowman65 wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:16 am
Pas_Bon wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:06 am What a shock.....ugh......forecast has pulled away from those really cool temps this weekend and next week. It’s starting to feel like we will never get cold again. Lol
Not shocked at all...totally expected. It will be doing this all winter. You can blame:

1. La Nina
2. 2020
3. Nancy Pelosi
4. All of the above.
NOAA has given up the ghost.

The biggest change I've noticed (due to cc) over the past 30 years in Texas are warmer Falls, often more humid. Summers are about the same. Severe Season in the Spring is a tad earlier. Winters slightly more variable. Fall is the big difference.
A lot more capping in the spring, too. It’s almost like our Climate is becoming like India’s.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:11 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:30 am
snowman65 wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:16 am

Not shocked at all...totally expected. It will be doing this all winter. You can blame:

1. La Nina
2. 2020
3. Nancy Pelosi
4. All of the above.
NOAA has given up the ghost.

The biggest change I've noticed (due to cc) over the past 30 years in Texas are warmer Falls, often more humid. Summers are about the same. Severe Season in the Spring is a tad earlier. Winters slightly more variable. Fall is the big difference.
A lot more capping in the spring, too. It’s almost like our Climate is becoming like India’s.

Definitely down toward Houston. Capping is common in the spring, but there seems to be more of it with the feast or famine patterns.

Texas weather and climate have historically been incredibly variable. Just moreso. Also, while the number of TCs on average per year is similar to 50 years ago with significant variation from year to year, the frequency of Cat 4s and above has been increasing over time.
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Ptarmigan
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:11 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:30 am
snowman65 wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:16 am

Not shocked at all...totally expected. It will be doing this all winter. You can blame:

1. La Nina
2. 2020
3. Nancy Pelosi
4. All of the above.
NOAA has given up the ghost.

The biggest change I've noticed (due to cc) over the past 30 years in Texas are warmer Falls, often more humid. Summers are about the same. Severe Season in the Spring is a tad earlier. Winters slightly more variable. Fall is the big difference.
A lot more capping in the spring, too. It’s almost like our Climate is becoming like India’s.
Houston is at the same latitude as India. Delhi is at the same latitude as Houston. India have the Himalayas and Karakoram to the north, which Texas has no high mountain range.
CrashTestDummy
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What a change a day makes! 60-deg. F outside with a BRISK north wind. Typidal southeast Texas north wind, one that cuts right through you. We recorded 1/4" of rain since midnight.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
redneckweather
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Typical Southeast Texas fall weather. Nothing has changed over the past 30 years and no season is the same from year to year.

59 degrees near Laken Conroe and a serious cool northeast wind...I like it!
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cajun
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2.25" in the rain gauge overnight - where did THAT come from? Was expecting about an inch.

Kuykendahl at FM2920.
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jasons2k
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redneckweather wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:57 am Nothing has changed over the past 30 years and no season is the same from year to year.
I don't want to turn this thread into a debate over CC but a lot has changed over the last 30 years. There's not only a lot of anecdotal evidence, but the actual data and science proves a lot has changed.

For as "mild" as this summer seemed to a lot of us, the streak of overnight record warm minimums in Galveston was unprecedented. I could go on and on and on starting there & working backwards, but that's just one notable example from 2020 right here in SE Texas.

On another note - I was not expecting this much rain, or for it to still be 56 degrees at 10:30 this morning. Seems like both the front and the dynamics over-performed. I'll gladly take the rain - we needed it. Maybe the leaves will be hydrated enough now to turn first instead of dropping straight off.
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