October 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stormlover2020
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This year it has been
davidiowx
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:21 pm Pretty sure I've read on S2K that the Euro is always biased west on stronger storms in the gulf.
I wouldn't say it always is, it has been this year for sure though. I wouldn't discredit the trends though because the Euro is a pretty good model in the grand scheme of things. A lot of the models trended further west overnight and today. The latest EPS ensembles are a little to close for comfort for me right now. I would be happy to see the Euro (and other models) go ahead and shift back to the east.

Not that I want anyone to get hit by a hurricane, ever, but I surely don't want anything other than some decent rains.
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tireman4
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Oct. 5, 2020
22:00 Z
Map: Google Earth Logo Cesium Logo

10/05 21:24 | 17 | 984mb | 63kts (63kts) | 64kts (64kts)
Raw?
Note: "In. Flt" is max inbound flight level wind. "In. Sfc" is max inbound surface wind, estimated by SFMR or visually. If outbound wind is reported, then highest wind, inbound or outbound from center, is in parenthesis. Winds usually averaged over 10s period. Extrap. MSLPs have (e) next to them. Add missed obs.
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 21:48Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 26 in 2020
Storm Name: Delta (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 17

A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 21:24:57Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.26N 79.32W
B. Center Fix Location: 206 statute miles (331 km) to the SW (234°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,966m (9,731ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 235° at 9kts (From the SW at 10mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 64kts (73.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNE (22°) of center fix at 21:22:38Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 112° at 63kts (From the ESE at 72.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) of center fix at 21:22:03Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 61kts (70.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the SSW (208°) of center fix at 21:30:33Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 305° at 55kts (From the NW at 63.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (215°) of center fix at 21:31:35Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,071m (10,075ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) from the flight level center at 21:22:03Z
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DoctorMu
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Gotta give props to Bastardi. He smelled an October major in the GoM.

Delta heading for the Mississippi Delta as of now.
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Ptarmigan
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 7:16 pm Gotta give props to Bastardi. He smelled an October major in the GoM.

Delta heading for the Mississippi Delta as of now.
I am not surprised to see a major hurricane in October.
Stormlover2020
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18z euro west shift again
Stormlover2020
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Gfs para, sw la shift west
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Stormlover2020 wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:35 pm Gfs para, sw la shift west
That run is waaaaayyyy too close for comfort.
Kingwood36
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TXWeatherMan wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:02 pm
Stormlover2020 wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:35 pm Gfs para, sw la shift west
That run is waaaaayyyy too close for comfort.
Have the image?
TXWeatherMan
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Kingwood36 wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:08 pm
TXWeatherMan wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:02 pm
Stormlover2020 wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:35 pm Gfs para, sw la shift west
That run is waaaaayyyy too close for comfort.
Have the image?
I don’t, but it pretty much hugs the Texas coast and goes into Southwest Louisiana.
Scott747
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The models have been adjusting further w because of the short term changes. Unless they start showing something different downstream with the trough then it's going to be tough to affect the Texas coast. Is beginning to put sw la in play though.
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SWLA doesn't need it at all.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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00Z ECMWF trending west with a weaker storm and weaker trough.
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Cromagnum
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Is it expected to weaken a lot at landfall? NHC has it as a major almost all the way through the gulf.

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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:00 am Is it expected to weaken a lot at landfall? NHC has it as a major almost all the way through the gulf.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics ... d_wind.png
Shear and dry air entrainment increase closer to the coastline so some weakening is expected.
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tireman4
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Delta has intensified by 70 mph (from 40 mph to 110 mph) in its first 24 hours since becoming a named storm. This is the most intensification in a 24 hour period for an October Atlantic named storm since Wilma in 2005. #hurricane pic.twitter.com/Dc5EkZpFSj
-- Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 6, 2020
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tireman4
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Morning recon flight into Hurricane #Delta just found surface winds approaching ~110 mph in the northern eyewall with a central pressure down near ~960 hPa. Delta continues to rapidly intensify SW of Grand Cayman. pic.twitter.com/vRgY92CT4U
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) October 6, 2020
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tireman4
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#Delta's eye is tiny, about 6 miles wide according to recon. Visible and microwave imagery don't suggest any wrapping band that could lead to a secondary eyewall yet. This means explosive intensification is likely today, bad news for NE Mexico. Landfall is tonight. Please prepare pic.twitter.com/EiviBFdgOA
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) October 6, 2020
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 061153
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
653 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.AVIATION...

High pressure over the southern plains will bring generally VFR
conditions to area TAF sites today. Patchy fog could impact KLBX
and KSGR early this morning but the fog is shallow and will burn
off quickly. Winds will remain light through the TAF period with
just some light cirrus floating into the area after 21z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020/

SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)

Patchy morning fog will be possible over mainly the W-SW parts of
the area this morning as T/Td narrow. Could be a few pockets of
locally dense fog over the SW zones but the fog is shallow and
should burn off quickly after sunrise.

Not a lot to discuss in the short term as surface high pressure
remains centered over the southern plains. Warm and dry conditions
are expected today and again on Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures
show some slight warming on Weds so despite some increase in
cirrus, feel sfc temps will warm a bit from today. Will keep
things dry despite the ECMWF showing a surge of moisture late
Wednesday. The CAMs, TT WRF and other global models keep things
dry and will lean toward the consensus. 43

LONG TERM AND TROPICAL [Thursday through Tuesday]...

On Thursday, Hurricane Delta should be moving across the central
Gulf of Mexico, as a Major hurricane based on the recent NHC
intensity forecast. Delta is expected to be moving generally towards
the north to northwest on Thursday, approaching the Central Gulf
coasts on Friday. Luckily, Delta is expected to weaken as
unfavorable southwesterly wind shear will begin to play havoc with
the structure of the system. The cooler shelf waters will also
reduce it`s energy source. The current forecast track has Delta`s
center moving into the Central Gulf Coasts (near or slightly west of
the New Orleans region) on Friday evening/night. Although most of
the model guidance are in pretty good agreement of the center`s
track, there is still room for changes, especially if the system
begins to try to re-organize itself as the shear and cooler waters
starts to weaken it.

Locally, we will continue to have swells generated by Delta moving
into the local Gulf waters along with strong winds Thursday
resulting in hazardous beach conditions including dangerous rip
currents and possible run-up. We will experience a gradual
increase in showers and thunderstorms, likely from the outer
rainbands of Delta, over the local waters Thursday morning. By
Thursday afternoon, these showers and thunderstorms will begin to
move inland, starting from the southeastern quadrant and expanding
northwestward as the day and night progresses. We will see a
further increase in wind speeds and storm activity as Delta moves
across the Northern Gulf waters Thursday overnight into early
Friday morning and approaches the Central Gulf Coast Friday
morning into Friday afternoon/evening. Based on the current track,
conditions across inland SE Texas could begin to improve as early
as Friday night or early Saturday.

Although it is too early to know exactly what/when/where the impacts
of Delta will be for SE Texas, we can consider that the high seas
and strong winds will continue to produce dangerous marine and beach
conditions and may result in some minor coastal flooding (especially
at high tide) along the usual vulnerable spots in Galveston Island
and Bolivar Peninsula. Depending on how strong the system is at
landfall, strong gusty winds may also be experienced along the
southeastern and eastern counties of the CWA. But again, it is still
to early and the forecast can still incur a few changes. Interests
along the Central and Northwestern Gulf Coast should continue to
monitor the progress of Delta.

For the rest of the weekend into next week, winds will be turning
westerly as Delta continues further inland and away from the coastal
regions, bringing hotter temperatures into our local area. We could
potentially have several areas with high temperatures reaching the
low 90s both on Saturday and Sunday. Early next week, an upper level
trough will swing into the Great Plains, strengthening the surface
high pressure over the Rockies. This will push a cold front into SE
Texas sometime late Monday or early Tuesday, which will then lower
overall temperatures across SE Texas. 24

MARINE...

Long period swells from Post-Tropical Storm Gamma are expected
continue to move into the Gulf waters today and slowly subside
Wednesday. In the past few hours, Bouy 42019 has been reporting seas
of around 5 to 6 feet at a 9-10 second wave period. Dangerous rip
currents is likely along the Gulf facing beaches today and
Wednesday. Caution flags are now in effect as well as a Rip Current
Statement. An SCA will be in effect for the offshore waters later
this afternoon, if winds and seas reach the advisory threshold.

Another surge of long periods swells is expected Thursday and Friday
as Hurricane Delta moves into the Central Gulf of Mexico and the
Northern Gulf of Mexico respectively. Winds and seas will quickly
build Thursday afternoon through Friday, increasing the risks of rip
currents and possible coastal flooding. By Friday, seas of 12 to 15
feet is possible across the offshore Gulf waters and 7 to 12 feet
across the nearshore Gulf waters. Conditions will also be hazardous
across the Bays. At this time, the center of Hurricane Delta is not
expected to move across our local Gulf waters and the forecast track
continues to move Delta near the New Orleans region as a weakening
hurricane. However, both the track and intensity of Delta could have
a few more changes in the next few days. Therefore, interests along
the Central and Northwestern Coasts should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

Winds and seas will decrease during the weekend and should be below
SCA/SCEC criteria as early as Saturday late afternoon/evening.
However, another increase in winds could build seas back to SCEC or
SCA levels early next week as the local pressure gradient tightens.
24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 59 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 87 61 87 70 88 / 0 0 0 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 71 82 74 84 / 0 0 10 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT
Wednesday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43
Kingwood36
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All these westward shifts are making me a little uneasy
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