October 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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snowman65
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finally a shift east and we are out of the nhc cone
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 091207
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
707 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

MVFR to IFR CIGS, gusty northeasterly winds, and periods of rain
will continue through the day as Hurricane Delta skirts the area
to the southeast. The rain and gusty winds will be more likely for
CXO coastward with UTS and CLL only seeing some CVSH. Gusts will
be up to 45kts in GLS later today. Winds will decrease this
evening as Delta pulls to the northeast.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 422 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020/...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)

Hurricane Delta (Cat 3) continues to move N-NW and will turn to
the north this morning and NE toward the Louisiana coast this
evening. The system is finally encountering some southwesterly
shear aloft and the storm should begin to weaken as it approaches
the LA coast. There are no changes to the current suite of
warnings currently in effect with a Tropical Storm Warning for
areas along the coast between High Island and Sargent and around
Galveston Bay. A hurricane Warning remains in effect for the
offshore waters between High Island and Sargent (20-60 nm
offshore). There is also a Coastal Flood Warning around Galveston
Bay and a Coastal Flood Advisory along Matagorda Island. The main
impacts from Delta will be elevated water levels, increasing rain
chances today and slightly stronger winds. The rain will be
welcome as much of SE TX remains dry. Since SE TX will lie on the
west side of Delta, rainfall totals will be relatively light with
a very tight precipitation gradient from east to west. Highest
totals should be in Liberty and Chambers counties with about 1-2
inches and less than that as you head west. Extensive cloud cover,
winds and precip should keep temperatures on the cool side with
highs remaining in the 70`s over the east but some breaks in the
cloud cover are expected over the SW zones this afternoon and
will keep MaxT values in the upper 80`s over the far western
zones.

Delta will accelerate to the NE and exit the region tonight. Rain
will end from west to east and most of the area will be dry by
06z. Skies will begin clearing from west to east between 03-06z
with generally clear skies by 12z Saturday. MinT values will only
cool into the mid/upper 60`s. PW values drop to around an inch on
Saturday and forecast soundings show a very dry profile so would
expect sunny skies. As Delta moves away, weak ridging develops at
500 mb. A warming trend will develop and MaxT values will warm
into the upper 80`s. 43


.LONG TERM...

Sunday and Monday look unseasonably warm as 850 mb temperatures
warm to between 23-24 C. These are summer-like values and if the
850 temps are taken to the surface dry adiabatically, you get MaxT
values in the mid/upper 90`s. Guidance seems a bit cool and will
go slightly above model blends for MaxT. Moisture profiles look
dry so not expecting precip either day.

A cold front should cross the area on Tuesday. Pressure rises
don`t look all that impressive so not sure how far out into the
Gulf this feature will travel. The ECMWF and GFS don`t show much
in the way of moisture and are trending drier from previous model
runs but the Canadian continues to show a bit more sfc convergence
and moisture and produces some showers near the coast. Will keep
20 PoPs over the coastal zones for Tuesday. Slightly drier and
cooler air will filter into the region for Wed/Thu. 850 mb
temperatures cool from 23 C on Monday to around 18 C by Thursday.
That said, the slight cooling takes high temps from the mid 90`s
to the mid 80s which is still slightly above normal. The drier air
should allow night time lows to cool a bit as well.

Another cold front could possibly cross the coast next Fri or
Saturday but global models having a tough time deciding whether
the front makes it here. Deterministic output shows a 500 mb flow
that lacks amplification. However, ensemble guidance shows a
deepening trough over the eastern US with a more amplified NW flow
developing. Split the difference between the blends and the
warmer numerical guidance. 43


.MARINE...

Hurricane Delta will continue to move into the northern Gulf waters
today and tonight. As of 2 AM CDT, Bouy 42019 located along the
offshore Gulf waters, reported winds of 29 KTS with a gust of 39 KTS
and a wave height of 16 FT. For the rest of the morning and
afternoon hours today, the long period swell generated by Delta will
continue to move into the Gulf waters and further increase wave
heights up to around 30 FT for the offshore waters and up to around
15 FT for the nearshore waters. As for wind speeds, expected
Tropical to Hurricane Force winds across the offshore Gulf waters
and Tropical Storm Force winds for the nearshore waters and
Galveston Bay. Matagorda Bay could experience winds in the 20 to 25
KT range and an SCA is now in effect for this bay. Winds will be
mostly north to northeasterly, therefore, with north to
northwestward moving swells, confused seas are likely for most of
the Gulf waters. Winds and seas will slowly subside Friday night
through Saturday, returning to more normal levels (winds below 15
KTS and seas below 5 FT) Saturday afternoon.

For Sunday and Monday, south to southwesterly wind flow is expected
with seas of 1 to 3 feet. Northerly winds return late Monday night
as a cold front moves across the coastal waters. Although winds
increase in the wake of the front, conditions should stay below
SCEC. By Wednesday afternoon, onshore flow is expected to return and
continue through Thursday. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 83 65 89 66 94 / 30 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 79 68 88 69 93 / 70 40 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 80 71 84 75 85 / 80 40 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT Saturday for the following
zones: Matagorda Islands.

Coastal Flood Warning until 3 PM CDT Saturday for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Inland Galveston...Southern Liberty.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT Saturday for the following
zones: Matagorda Bay.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Hurricane Warning for the following zones: Waters from High
Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$
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Katdaddy
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Hurricane Delta is slowly approaching the SW LA coast this morning with a landfall later this afternoon. Light to moderate rain moving across SE portions of SE TX mainly along and E of I-45. Winds gusting almost to 40MPH in Galveston currently.
Cromagnum
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Anytime i can see the eye from HGX radar is too close.

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prospects8903
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I’m in Orange watching the radar...this thing better start turning east soon or we will get more than expected
unome
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Buoy 42019 - 60 NM S of Freeport, TX https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42019

Image

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prospects8903
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Looking at the models it sure does seem like it should have a much more eastern movement at the present moment
Snakeswx
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Looked to just make a westward move on radar, seems to be building in nicely on that NW side
prospects8903
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Snakeswx wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:33 am Looked to just make a westward move on radar, seems to be building in nicely on that NW side
I just noticed the jog also waiting to see if it corrects back east
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snowman65
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I think it's sort of funny to listen to the tv how they talk about the storm moving through and into Alabama and Tennessee with winds at 35mph and "heavy rains that could bring 2"-3" of rain".....if that is heavy rainfall for them, I would like to see how they would handle 25"-35" like a Harvey or Imelda.
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jasons2k
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Looks like the rain is holding off for now. About to get an unexpected run in this morning.
prospects8903
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Looking like the storm is hugging that 94 W line
prospects8903
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I’m starting to think western side of Cameron for landfall
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jasons2k
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It’s like a wall on the west side. Typical. Heh - I never turned off my sprinkler settings.
7536B6CA-0C55-41A6-8004-6231763008C7.png
weatherguy425
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:21 am It’s like a wall on the west side. Typical. Heh - I never turned off my sprinkler settings.

7536B6CA-0C55-41A6-8004-6231763008C7.png
Trough; mid-level dry + southerly/southwesterly shear is working its “magic”. :D
Cromagnum
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We had quite a bit of rain from beta and then bone dry for a couple of weeks.
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djmike
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Lots of rain for Beaumont (not heavy for now) and very breezy with gusts. For now, highest gusts Ive clocked is 41 mph. Golden Triangle should be getting our worst winds between 3pm and midnight. 40-50 sustained with gusts to 70 per Patrick (local met). At that time, its very likely we will have several power outages in our area like with Laura. Be ready! 4-6” of rain. Ponding on roadways but shouldn't be anything severe. I-10 westbound continues to be gridlocked heading towards Houston from LA folks fleeing the storm. If Delta does not begin her NE movement like NOW, Beaumont and the Golden Triangle area will possibly see a tick up in winds. Delta is a much wider storm than Laura was, so Beaumont area WILL see sustained winds today with some pretty hefty gusts. Dont let this slow rainfall and breezy slow winds fool ya. Delta is wide enough to even send TS force winds to Houston today. So with Beaumont being much more eastern than Houston, expect deteriorating conditions in Beaumont, Port Arthur and especially Orange Groves Bridge City eastward. Stay weather aware today and lets hope Delta doesnt pull any last minute surprises...:right now, (tapping fingers) hoping for that NE turn like NOW... stay safe everyone. Long day ahead.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Cromagnum
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Am I crazy or does this look like a west jog in the IR ?

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prospects8903
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From what I understand about a 25 mile west jog
Stormlover2020
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It’s starting to move ne
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