000
FXUS64 KHGX 201752
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1252 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020
&&
.AVIATION [18Z Update]...
SCT VFR to MVFR cigs are expected to continue this afternoon.
An area of showers and isolated storms will gradually move close
to KIAH/KCXO terminals through 22Z Tuesday. Low clouds and fog are
again possible overnight into Wednesday morning at all terminals.
The best probabilities of MVFR to occasional LIFR conditions will
be across our inland terminals. Light south winds today will
shift to the southeast and then east through Wednesday afternoon.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday]...
Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are found early this morning mainly
to the north of Interstate 10. Further to the south, mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies prevail. Temperatures through 3 AM are in
the lower to mid 70s across the area, and little change is
anticipated for the rest of the night (the normal lows for today
are 59 at CLL, 60 at both IAH, 62 at HOU and 67 at GLS). With
today`s highs anticipated to reach the upper 80s across much of
the area, it looks like we are setting up for another day of
double digit above normal temperatures (yesterday`s departures
were +12 at CLL, +10 at IAH, +10 and HOU and +8 at GLS). Only a
couple isolated showers/storms will be possible. Look for a repeat
of this warm pattern to continue tonight and Wednesday (we might
be able to shave off a couple degrees for the morning lows).
Conditions could become a little more favorable for some fog
development late tonight through early Wednesday morning. Little
to no rain can be expected. 42
LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Tuesday]...
With broad surface high pressure remaining situated over the
northeastern CONUS and lower pressures centered near the Paso del
Norte region, unseasonably warm and humid weather will continue
through the end of the work week as light to moderate onshore flow
persists. Thursday and Friday look to be a continuation of the
general conditions expected earlier this week as a result, with
afternoon highs remaining approximately 5-8 degrees above normal for
late October (mid to upper 80s inland, lower 80s near the coast).
While this elevated heat won`t be threatening any records, dew
points in the lower 70s and thereby apparent temps in the lower 90s
will keep things feeling closer to August than October. Some
isolated streamer shower development remains a possibility offshore,
though inland coverage will be limited by slightly reduced total PWs
as surface flow develops a more easterly component by Thursday
morning.
A slight relief comes as we approach the upcoming weekend with a
weak surface cold frontal boundary expected to approach SE Texas
late Friday/early Saturday. Global guidance remains in fairly good
agreement in this feature being relatively shallow, as both GFS &
ECMWF continue to show very little in the way of a frontogenesis
signal in the 850mb-700mb layer. As such, we expect a fairly
uneventful frontal passage, though a brief shift to northerly winds
in its wake will reduce afternoon highs by a few degrees on
Saturday. Surface high pressure behind the departing front will
shift quickly to the east, allowing for a redevelopment of onshore
flow with warmer and more humid conditions returning on Sunday. This
should push total PWs across most of the area back into the vicinity
of 1.5 inches by late Monday.
By the beginning of next week, our attention remains on the approach
of a second, stronger cold frontal boundary on late Monday/early
Tuesday. Global guidance continues to come into better agreement
regarding the approach of this feature, though the CMC remains the
slowest of all solutions in bringing the front through on Wednesday.
GFS & ECMWF each show the front reaching the northern counties by
Monday afternoon, pushing through the area during the day and
clearing the Gulf waters by Tuesday morning. Convergence along the
boundary as it approaches should produce showers with isolated
thunderstorms given the aforementioned better near-surface moisture
availability. Disagreement has lessened regarding the extent of the
temperature drop as northerly flow develops in the wake of the
departing front, with the GFS and ECMWF now showing Tuesday night
lows in the 40s/low 50s and Wednesday lows potentially dipping into
the 30s across the northern zones. Have stayed close to the national
blends in the current forecast period though lows may need to be
adjusted downward (possibly significantly) in the coming periods
should this trend show consistency in upcoming runs.
Cady
AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR ceilings are present early this morning in and around the
UTS and CLL areas while IFR/LIFR levels are located in the CXO area.
Further to the south, it is VFR. Lowering ceilings and maybe some
fog will be possible until shortly after sunrise, then VFR conditions
will be developing in the late morning through afternoon hours. Any
rains look to be too isolated to mention in the TAFs. Better low cloud
and fog potential looks to develop tonight through Wednesday morning,
followed by gradually improving conditions through the mid to late
morning hours. 42
MARINE...
Onshore winds will persist through mid-week as a broad area of high
pressure remains over the eastern seaboard with lower pressures to our
west. Caution flags might be needed across portions of the offshore
waters toward the middle of the week. North and northeast winds can
be expected late Friday through Saturday after a weak front moves across
the area. An onshore flow returns on Saturday night. 42
CLIMATE...
Houston Hobby`s average temperature so far this month (Oct. 1-19)
of 77.4 degrees is the 8th warmest Oct. 1-19 period on record
(dating back to 1930). The warmest Oct. 1-19 period is 79.7 degrees
set back in 2017. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 69 87 67 87 / 10 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 86 70 87 69 86 / 10 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 75 83 75 84 / 20 0 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
October 2020
Forecast has already backed off of cool/chilly temps for next week. Ugh!!
Yeah, the 12z Euro reversed course quickly after dipping a toe. GFS still hanging in there on 12z
18z data coming in...and on cue GFS is crumbling. We're down to nowcasting coldfronts...Don't fire until you see a northerly wind shift.
-
TXWeatherMan
- Posts: 152
- Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:21 am
- Location: Montgomery TX
- Contact:
Not surprising given our pattern so far this year.
GFS and Canadian are back on board a potent front midweek next week.
58°F and sunny. That's the ticket. No A/C. No sprinklers. Maybe a bit of gas heat at night. Maybe not.
58°F and sunny. That's the ticket. No A/C. No sprinklers. Maybe a bit of gas heat at night. Maybe not.
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
I'm sure it will be gone later on today lol
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 210921
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
421 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday]...
Increasing clouds and areas of fog are the main weather features early
this morning. We`ll be monitoring for possible dense fog advisories.
Temperatures should bottom out in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland
and in the mid 70s at the coast. After the fog lifts and dissipates
after sunrise, expect partly cloudy skies across the area with another
day or above normal high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 80s
at the beaches to the mid to upper 80s inland. There could be some
isolated shower development in/around our southwest counties, mainly
to the west of the Brazos River. Late night through early morning
clouds and some more fog chances can be expected again tonight through
tomorrow morning with overnight low temperatures similar to what the
area experiences this morning. Only change on Thursday might be a slight
tick upward for rain chances with the best location still anticipated
to be generally near and to the west of the Brazos River. 42
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday night through Wednesday]...
The extended period continues to be characterized by two frontal
passages - an initial weaker boundary on Friday which should prove
rather uneventful for SE Texas and a second, stronger boundary early
next week which still has a significant amount of uncertainty
regarding its timing and impacts.
Expect the unseasonably warm and humid conditions of late to
continue through the end of the work week. Latest surface analysis
continues to indicate broad high pressure over the eastern/
northeastern CONUS and lower pressures over central/western TX. This
synoptic pattern should persist through Thursday, with the resultant
onshore wind allowing for afternoon highs to reach the mid to upper
80s and dew points to remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. While
won`t be out of the question to see a streamer shower or two develop
offshore in the morning hours during this time, limited mid/upper
level forcing support and low-level capping should inhibit any
widespread precipitation development.
The initial cold front will approach the Brazos Valley-Huntsville-
Crockett corridor by late Friday afternoon, advancing into the
Houston metro overnight and moving offshore by the early morning
hours. Global guidance continues to show a shallow boundary with
little to no frontogenesis signal present above the 850mb isobaric
surface. As such, the impacts from this first FROPA should be
largely inconsequential. Northerly winds will briefly develop in the
wake of the departing boundary, which should knock down high
temperatures by a couple of degrees on Saturday afternoon (though
still remaining above normal for mid to late October). This will be
only momentary, however, as high pressure behind the boundary will
quickly shift eastward and allow for a redevelopment of onshore flow
by Sunday afternoon.
With onshore winds persisting through the remainder of the weekend
and into the early portion of next week, unseasonably warm
conditions will stick around through Monday. Significant uncertainty
enters the forecast beyond Day 5 as a potential second stronger cold
front approaches SE Texas, though models are in a bit better
agreement than at the previous package`s issuance. As of the 00Z
model cycle, GFS remains the faster solution compared to the ECMWF,
placing a strong surface front across the northern counties on
Monday afternoon and offshore by Tuesday morning. EC continues to
stall the boundary before it reaches the coast, but still brings a
post-frontal wind shift and intrusion of cooler and drier air to
most of the area by Tuesday night. Significant spread still showing
among forecast overnight lows on Tuesday and Wednesday, with GFS
remaining ~7-10 degrees cooler across the board compared to the EC.
Given the uncertainty still present, have opted to side with
national blends along with surrounding forecast offices. Despite the
uncertainty present, this second FROPA should be our first real shot
at widespread rainfall during this forecast period, with stronger
convergence along the boundary and more ample moisture availability
anticipated.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Light to moderate northeast to east winds and elevated seas will persist
through the end of the week. Caution flags might be needed. North to
northeast winds can be expected Friday night and Saturday after the
passage of a weak cold front. Onshore winds will return to the area
on Saturday night and will persist into the start of next week. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs will show improving conditions (lifting ceilings/fog) in
the morning with VFR in the late morning through afternoon hours.
Later this evening and especially overnight through tomorrow morning,
expect to have another round of low cloud and fog development (mainly
MVFR/IFR). Similar to this morning, look for lifting ceilings and
fog dissipation beginning shortly after sunrise. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 67 87 68 86 / 0 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 87 70 86 71 87 / 0 0 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 75 82 75 85 / 10 0 20 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 210921
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
421 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday]...
Increasing clouds and areas of fog are the main weather features early
this morning. We`ll be monitoring for possible dense fog advisories.
Temperatures should bottom out in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland
and in the mid 70s at the coast. After the fog lifts and dissipates
after sunrise, expect partly cloudy skies across the area with another
day or above normal high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 80s
at the beaches to the mid to upper 80s inland. There could be some
isolated shower development in/around our southwest counties, mainly
to the west of the Brazos River. Late night through early morning
clouds and some more fog chances can be expected again tonight through
tomorrow morning with overnight low temperatures similar to what the
area experiences this morning. Only change on Thursday might be a slight
tick upward for rain chances with the best location still anticipated
to be generally near and to the west of the Brazos River. 42
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday night through Wednesday]...
The extended period continues to be characterized by two frontal
passages - an initial weaker boundary on Friday which should prove
rather uneventful for SE Texas and a second, stronger boundary early
next week which still has a significant amount of uncertainty
regarding its timing and impacts.
Expect the unseasonably warm and humid conditions of late to
continue through the end of the work week. Latest surface analysis
continues to indicate broad high pressure over the eastern/
northeastern CONUS and lower pressures over central/western TX. This
synoptic pattern should persist through Thursday, with the resultant
onshore wind allowing for afternoon highs to reach the mid to upper
80s and dew points to remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. While
won`t be out of the question to see a streamer shower or two develop
offshore in the morning hours during this time, limited mid/upper
level forcing support and low-level capping should inhibit any
widespread precipitation development.
The initial cold front will approach the Brazos Valley-Huntsville-
Crockett corridor by late Friday afternoon, advancing into the
Houston metro overnight and moving offshore by the early morning
hours. Global guidance continues to show a shallow boundary with
little to no frontogenesis signal present above the 850mb isobaric
surface. As such, the impacts from this first FROPA should be
largely inconsequential. Northerly winds will briefly develop in the
wake of the departing boundary, which should knock down high
temperatures by a couple of degrees on Saturday afternoon (though
still remaining above normal for mid to late October). This will be
only momentary, however, as high pressure behind the boundary will
quickly shift eastward and allow for a redevelopment of onshore flow
by Sunday afternoon.
With onshore winds persisting through the remainder of the weekend
and into the early portion of next week, unseasonably warm
conditions will stick around through Monday. Significant uncertainty
enters the forecast beyond Day 5 as a potential second stronger cold
front approaches SE Texas, though models are in a bit better
agreement than at the previous package`s issuance. As of the 00Z
model cycle, GFS remains the faster solution compared to the ECMWF,
placing a strong surface front across the northern counties on
Monday afternoon and offshore by Tuesday morning. EC continues to
stall the boundary before it reaches the coast, but still brings a
post-frontal wind shift and intrusion of cooler and drier air to
most of the area by Tuesday night. Significant spread still showing
among forecast overnight lows on Tuesday and Wednesday, with GFS
remaining ~7-10 degrees cooler across the board compared to the EC.
Given the uncertainty still present, have opted to side with
national blends along with surrounding forecast offices. Despite the
uncertainty present, this second FROPA should be our first real shot
at widespread rainfall during this forecast period, with stronger
convergence along the boundary and more ample moisture availability
anticipated.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Light to moderate northeast to east winds and elevated seas will persist
through the end of the week. Caution flags might be needed. North to
northeast winds can be expected Friday night and Saturday after the
passage of a weak cold front. Onshore winds will return to the area
on Saturday night and will persist into the start of next week. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs will show improving conditions (lifting ceilings/fog) in
the morning with VFR in the late morning through afternoon hours.
Later this evening and especially overnight through tomorrow morning,
expect to have another round of low cloud and fog development (mainly
MVFR/IFR). Similar to this morning, look for lifting ceilings and
fog dissipation beginning shortly after sunrise. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 67 87 68 86 / 0 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 87 70 86 71 87 / 0 0 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 75 82 75 85 / 10 0 20 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Gfs has highs in the 40s tues and the euro has highs in the 70s...which one will rule out?
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 211753
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020
.AVIATION...
Remaining MVFR ceilings should be lifting/scattering out into VFR
territory shortly and should remain that way into the evening.
Considering the differences in forecast guidance, and that its
performance wasn`t too spectacular last night, went ahead and
geared the 18z TAFs more toward persistence since overall pattern
shouldn`t be too much different. So anticipate low stratus and
some areas of fog to redevelop overnight, perhaps back down into
IFR and maybe some embedded LIFR, followed by slow improvement
into the the late morning hours Thurs. May see some iso/sct shra
around Thurs afternoon along & south of the I-10 corridor, but
have left the mention out of the TAFs attm. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 67 87 68 86 / 0 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 87 70 86 71 87 / 10 0 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 75 82 75 85 / 0 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 211753
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020
.AVIATION...
Remaining MVFR ceilings should be lifting/scattering out into VFR
territory shortly and should remain that way into the evening.
Considering the differences in forecast guidance, and that its
performance wasn`t too spectacular last night, went ahead and
geared the 18z TAFs more toward persistence since overall pattern
shouldn`t be too much different. So anticipate low stratus and
some areas of fog to redevelop overnight, perhaps back down into
IFR and maybe some embedded LIFR, followed by slow improvement
into the the late morning hours Thurs. May see some iso/sct shra
around Thurs afternoon along & south of the I-10 corridor, but
have left the mention out of the TAFs attm. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 67 87 68 86 / 0 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 87 70 86 71 87 / 10 0 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 75 82 75 85 / 0 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
No way it makes it to the 40s this early.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:34 pm Gfs has highs in the 40s tues and the euro has highs in the 70s...which one will rule out?
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
I grew up in Longview, Northeast Texas, and I can remember maybe one or two Halloween’s where it was in the 40s. It’s not impossible, but extremely rare.... and I’m talking about Longview, not Houston.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:25 amNo way it makes it to the 40s this early.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:34 pm Gfs has highs in the 40s tues and the euro has highs in the 70s...which one will rule out?
Team #NeverSummer
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 220917
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
417 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today through Friday]...
Low cloud and fog development overnight will lift and dissipate this
morning. Some showers are moving into the Matagorda Bay area early this
morning, and locations between the Sugar Land area and the Matagorda
Bay area will have the best chance of possible shower and/or thunderstorm
development during the day. After a quiet evening, look for another
shot of low cloud and maybe some fog development late tonight through
early Friday morning. A cold front will work its way into Southeast
Texas during the day on Friday. Even though there will be minimal surface
convergence along the front, the boundary might be able to squeeze out
some rain during the afternoon. The big change coming with this front
will be the decrease in temperatures, but that will not come into play
until Friday night. 42
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Thursday]...
We remain focused on the approach of two cold frontal boundaries
over the next week, with the initial FROPA coming on Friday
afternoon/evening as a boundary draped southwestward across the
central CONUS will approach SE Texas. Per the latest high-resolution
guidance, the front should push through the northern zones by the
early evening, advancing into the Houston metro overnight and
clearing the coast by early Saturday morning. Northerly winds in the
wake of the front will allow for the advection of cooler and drier
air into the region and thereby provide a relief from the
unseasonably warm and humid conditions of late. Overnight lows on
Friday look to dip into the upper 50s/low 60s, while highs on
Saturday will hover right around 80 (or slightly less). National
blends have been a bit warmer than the latest deterministic runs,
particularly the 06Z NAM. Will need to monitor future runs for
consistency, and if the trend maintains may need to adjust lows even
further downward. While an isolated shower or two with this passage
cannot be completely be ruled out, convergence along the expectedly
shallow boundary will be relatively weak and a generally dry day is
anticipated.
This momentary relief from the recent string of warm and humid days
will be short-lived, as surface high pressure in the wake of the
FROPA will shift quickly eastward and allow for a redevelopment of
onshore flow by Sunday morning. Sunday as a whole will look similar
to the past several days, with most inland locations seeing highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Slightly above normal temps and dew points in
the low 70s continue into Monday.
A great deal of uncertainty remains regarding the timing and impacts
of a second cold frontal boundary during the early/middle of next
week, with 00Z EC and GFS runs still showing significant differences
in how this period could unfold. While both solutions indicate a
stronger front than the initial passage this weekend, the GFS
guidance shows the boundary pushing completely through the coastal
waters between Tuesday and early Wednesday, allowing for a
substantial push of cooler and drier air in its wake. Conversely,
the EC continues to stall the boundary near the coast, resulting a
more moderate cool-down. Have continued to side mostly with national
blends until these discontinuities resolve between solutions.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
East to southeast winds will decrease and seas will come down through
Friday. A weak cold front is still expected to move off the coast on
Friday night. Caution flags might be needed. As high pressure behind
the front moves off to the east, expect onshore winds to return to the
area Saturday night. Caution flags might be needed for parts of the
area by Sunday night. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFS, areas with low ceilings and/or fog will improve as
the morning progresses, and VFR conditions will be expected this afternoon.
Could see some SHRA and possible TSRA development, mainly to the W and
SW of the IAH-HOU area. There is a chance of more low cloud and fog
development late tonight through early Friday morning. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 70 85 54 74 / 10 0 30 10 0
Houston (IAH) 86 72 87 60 78 / 20 0 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 76 83 66 78 / 20 0 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 220917
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
417 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today through Friday]...
Low cloud and fog development overnight will lift and dissipate this
morning. Some showers are moving into the Matagorda Bay area early this
morning, and locations between the Sugar Land area and the Matagorda
Bay area will have the best chance of possible shower and/or thunderstorm
development during the day. After a quiet evening, look for another
shot of low cloud and maybe some fog development late tonight through
early Friday morning. A cold front will work its way into Southeast
Texas during the day on Friday. Even though there will be minimal surface
convergence along the front, the boundary might be able to squeeze out
some rain during the afternoon. The big change coming with this front
will be the decrease in temperatures, but that will not come into play
until Friday night. 42
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Thursday]...
We remain focused on the approach of two cold frontal boundaries
over the next week, with the initial FROPA coming on Friday
afternoon/evening as a boundary draped southwestward across the
central CONUS will approach SE Texas. Per the latest high-resolution
guidance, the front should push through the northern zones by the
early evening, advancing into the Houston metro overnight and
clearing the coast by early Saturday morning. Northerly winds in the
wake of the front will allow for the advection of cooler and drier
air into the region and thereby provide a relief from the
unseasonably warm and humid conditions of late. Overnight lows on
Friday look to dip into the upper 50s/low 60s, while highs on
Saturday will hover right around 80 (or slightly less). National
blends have been a bit warmer than the latest deterministic runs,
particularly the 06Z NAM. Will need to monitor future runs for
consistency, and if the trend maintains may need to adjust lows even
further downward. While an isolated shower or two with this passage
cannot be completely be ruled out, convergence along the expectedly
shallow boundary will be relatively weak and a generally dry day is
anticipated.
This momentary relief from the recent string of warm and humid days
will be short-lived, as surface high pressure in the wake of the
FROPA will shift quickly eastward and allow for a redevelopment of
onshore flow by Sunday morning. Sunday as a whole will look similar
to the past several days, with most inland locations seeing highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Slightly above normal temps and dew points in
the low 70s continue into Monday.
A great deal of uncertainty remains regarding the timing and impacts
of a second cold frontal boundary during the early/middle of next
week, with 00Z EC and GFS runs still showing significant differences
in how this period could unfold. While both solutions indicate a
stronger front than the initial passage this weekend, the GFS
guidance shows the boundary pushing completely through the coastal
waters between Tuesday and early Wednesday, allowing for a
substantial push of cooler and drier air in its wake. Conversely,
the EC continues to stall the boundary near the coast, resulting a
more moderate cool-down. Have continued to side mostly with national
blends until these discontinuities resolve between solutions.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
East to southeast winds will decrease and seas will come down through
Friday. A weak cold front is still expected to move off the coast on
Friday night. Caution flags might be needed. As high pressure behind
the front moves off to the east, expect onshore winds to return to the
area Saturday night. Caution flags might be needed for parts of the
area by Sunday night. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFS, areas with low ceilings and/or fog will improve as
the morning progresses, and VFR conditions will be expected this afternoon.
Could see some SHRA and possible TSRA development, mainly to the W and
SW of the IAH-HOU area. There is a chance of more low cloud and fog
development late tonight through early Friday morning. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 70 85 54 74 / 10 0 30 10 0
Houston (IAH) 86 72 87 60 78 / 20 0 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 76 83 66 78 / 20 0 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
I've been in Houston my whole life and only remember it being kinda cold on the occasional Halloween. Usually its hot, or foggy/raining.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:56 amI grew up in Longview, Northeast Texas, and I can remember maybe one or two Halloween’s where it was in the 40s. It’s not impossible, but extremely rare.... and I’m talking about Longview, not Houston.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:25 amNo way it makes it to the 40s this early.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:34 pm Gfs has highs in the 40s tues and the euro has highs in the 70s...which one will rule out?
Looking at the climate graphic on HGX's page is continuously depressing. We can't even sniff climotological averages for more than a half day, if ever.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
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Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:29 amI've been in Houston my whole life and only remember it being kinda cold on the occasional Halloween. Usually its hot, or foggy/raining.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:56 amI grew up in Longview, Northeast Texas, and I can remember maybe one or two Halloween’s where it was in the 40s. It’s not impossible, but extremely rare.... and I’m talking about Longview, not Houston.
Was not last year cold?