October 2020

[javakah]

I keep hearing to be on watch to see if it makes it to 94W...any idea why?

The current guidance keeps it just east of 94W. If it goes further west of that, then it's likely to shift where it hits (compared to where its projected to hit) to some degree.

[prospects8903]

Thank you

[unome]

[djmike]

Let us know if it reaches 94w. It’s awfully close if its at 93.6. Curious in Beaumont. That means Delta needs to turn N like NOW.

[snowman65]

why do I keep hearing that Delta could have a bigger impact on the golden triangle than Laura? I'm in Orange and had 125mph gusts at my house....so how could a cat 2 be worse than a cat 4??

[Stormlover2020]

why do I keep hearing that Delta could have a bigger impact on the golden triangle than Laura? I'm in Orange and had 125mph gusts at my house....so how could a cat 2 be worse than a cat 4??

Because this is way bigger than Laura, tropical force winds extend out to almost parts of Houston

[Scott747]

Beginning to look like it's hit the wall. NHC agrees and has it getting no further then 93.7

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 082340
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020

.AVIATION...

Bands of showers associated with Hurricane Delta will continue to move
onshore and across SE TX tonight and tomorrow. Could see some isolated
thunderstorms too. Look for lowered ceilings and visibilities in and
around the convection. Increasing NE to N winds and wind gusts (much
stronger at GLS) can be expected during the day tomorrow as Delta heads
northward and makes landfall around sunset along the SW Louisiana coast.

42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020/

..EXPANSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING DOWN THE COAST TO
SARGENT...

..UPGRADING THE 20-60NM WATERS EAST OF FREEPORT TO HURRICANE
WARNING...

SHORT TERM [Today through through Saturday Night]...

Rain bands associated with Hurricane Delta have been and will be
continuing to move onshore through SE TX tonight and tomorrow.
However, the rather dry airmass that has been in place over the
area has been making it hard for these bands to produce
significant rain totals at the surface so far today, especially
for our northern CWA. But as we continue to see these lines move
inland with Delta`s approach toward the northern Gulf coast, the
air mass should moisten with time. Rain chances will remain high
tomorrow with the gradient of the higher POP numbers over the
eastern/coastal CWA to much lower to our west. This system is
forecast to move at a fairly rapid pace after it moves inland, so
rain chances will be dropping off quickly tomorrow evening/
night. As for winds, we are likely to see strong gusty winds pick
up tonight/early tomorrow morning for portions of our coastal
counties/beaches. Locations from San Luis Pass east to High
Island along with inland sites from Freeport to Winnie could start
seeing NE gusts at/near 30-35 mph overnight then perhaps close to
40mph tomorrow morning and afternoon. High temperatures should be
a bit cooler tomorrow afternoon given the increased clouds/rain.
41

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...
Sunday morning the weakening remains of Delta should be over
northern Mississippi moving quickly away with warm drying
southwesterly flow in place over SETX. Temperatures should climb
into the mid to upper 90s in the northwest and will be right near
the record high at College Station of 96 degrees in 1931 and
forecasting 96 as of this package and can`t rule out 97 or 98 on
the high end of the possibilities. Houston IAH 94 forecast would
also tie the record set in 1962. Upper ridging over Central/East
Texas slides eastward through the day and night into LA/Gulf
Monday afternoon which allows the next cold front to drop
southward into the northern counties late Monday afternoon or more
likely Monday evening after another much above normal day with
lighter southerly flow. Pooled deep tropical moisture trailing
back into the Gulf from Delta to the Bay of Campeche. The cold
front gets a reinforcing push southward early Tuesday and into the
Gulf but only barely. Brief increase in winds with the push but
relatively short lived then winds back to east as front becomes
stationary Tuesday evening. High pressure slides east and
southerly flow resumes Wednesday into Thursday morning. Increasing
cloudiness during this period as moisture Pacific flow aloft
sweeps in from Mexico bringing cirrus to the region. Tuesday and
Wednesday temperatures are back to seasonal levels. Slight chance
of showers or isolated thunderstorms with the frontal passage
Tuesday.
45

MARINE...
Tropical storm conditions developing after midnight this evening
and worsening to Hurricane conditions for the southeastern most
waters. This track for Delta will bring very strong sustained
winds and high gusts in excess of hurricane force there with
ponderously large seas of 16 to 20 feet building to 22-27 Friday
around sunrise through 1 pm then diminish quickly. Rough bay
waters with sustained northerly winds of 30 to 40 knots and
higher gusts Friday then NW and dropping off to around 15 knots
after 1 am Saturday. Strong currents in the ship channel will
make navigation a challenge on top of the strong winds and
mariners should avoid these conditions if possible.

35/Luchs

TROPICAL...
Hurricane Delta holding around 115 mph Cat 3 and Hurricane
Hunters first pass at 2023z showed estimated surface pressure down
to 959mb. The strongest winds were showing up in the band of
deeper convection the west and southwest side of the system and
this morning shot of dry air was wrapping around and oddly on the
east side of the hurricane. Hurricane guidance still tightly
packed on a track toward SW LA but with enough wind to warrant
hoisting a Hurricane warning for the 20-60nm waters east of
Freeport where strongest winds should occur for our area. The
system starts to really feel the shear and drier air Friday and
should weaken Friday afternoon as it gets into cooler waters
before landfall. Across the surrounding areas of Galveston Bay
expect the strongest winds to arrive in the region Friday 9 am
through 8 pm and be falling off quickly in the 6-9 pm window. Tide
levels will be a big concern for the Sargent area eastward up
into Galveston Bay and Bolivar. This initial northeast winds will
raise tide levels quickly from the 1-1.5 currently astronomical
tide levels to 3-5 feet above MLLW. Coastal Flood warning/advisory
remains in effect for this and expect some impacts such as
flooding onto Highway 87. Large swell will bring very rough
conditions to the beach areas and dangerous rip currents with
extensive run-up to and wave action on the Gulf facing beaches. As
it moves inland the strong northerly winds will likely push water
out of the bay into the back side of Bolivar and Galveston.
Conditions improving very quickly with low tide cycle and
relaxation of winds after 9 pm Friday.
45/Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 80 65 88 66 / 40 40 30 0 0
Houston (IAH) 73 78 68 87 69 / 60 60 50 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 75 80 71 87 75 / 70 70 60 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT Saturday for the following
zones: Matagorda Islands.

Coastal Flood Warning until 3 PM CDT Saturday for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Galveston...
Coastal Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...
Coastal Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Inland Galveston...Southern Liberty.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 3 PM CDT Saturday for
the following zones: Matagorda Bay.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...
Galveston Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Hurricane Warning for the following zones: Waters from High
Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[tireman4]

10:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 8
Location: 25.7°N 93.6°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 955 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

[prospects8903]

What kind of impacts am I looking at in Orange, Tx

[prospects8903]

0z GFS and nam a little west

[Andrew]

What kind of impacts am I looking at in Orange, Tx

Tropical storm conditions probably. Gusts between 50-60mph I would say would be possible, but the majority of the really bad stuff should stay east.

[Ptarmigan]

Let's hope Delta weakens.

[Scott747]

Will wait for a vdm from recon but looks like beta took a decent jog to the nw. Might be closer to 93.8 now.

[Andrew]

Will wait for a vdm from recon but looks like beta took a decent jog to the nw. Might be closer to 93.8 now.

Yea most recent recon and radar are showing some NW movement.

[Scott747]

Will wait for a vdm from recon but looks like beta took a decent jog to the nw. Might be closer to 93.8 now.

Yea most recent recon and radar are showing some NW movement.

I was waiting for recon to confirm but it's been showing up on the Brownsvill radar, and continues to do so.

[Andrew]

Looking at radar, you can see two eyewalls, indicating a ERC might be going on. It would also explain some of the weakening.

[Stormlover2020]

Still looks like it’s moving little north west but who knows

[Andrew]

Still looks like it’s moving little north west but who knows

Looks like based on radar and recon, we may finally be getting the true north heading.

[unome]

one of the features Chris put on the "storm page" at Tropical Atlantic was movement based on derived data from best track, it auto-calcs, so no guess-work if you have things to do & still want to follow closely

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models. ... 0&storm=26

Code: Select all

 Derived Data based on Best Track Information

  This information was automatically derived by our site for this storm from the latest best track data

6 Hour Average Movement ( About ):

Toward the N or 350° at 10.2 knots (11.7 mph | 18.9 km/h)

12 Hour Average Movement:

Toward the NNW or 344° at 9.9 knots (11.4 mph | 18.3 km/h)

24 Hour (1 Day) Average Movement:

Toward the NNW or 328° at 9.8 knots (11.3 mph | 18.1 km/h)

48 Hour (2 Day) Average Movement:

Toward the NW or 310° at 12.0 knots (13.9 mph | 22.3 km/h)

120 Hour (5 Day) Average Movement:

Toward the WNW or 300° at 10.4 knots (12.0 mph | 19.3 km/h)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index: 12.8375 104 kt2   About

Highest Sustained Wind achieved so far:

120 knots (138 mph | 62 m/s | 222 km/h)
Storm Icon for Highest Development

Highest Level of Development achieved so far:

Major Hurricane

these folks are going to need all our help we can spare, breaks my heart
https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/mrms_v12 ... s_step=120