October 2020

[Stormlover2020]

Still looks like it’s moving more wnw but who knows

[prospects8903]

It may just be my eyes but I see more west movement than a northern

[prospects8903]

I feel the closer it gets to 94 W the more of a Texas impact

[prospects8903]

It’s seems to be on the far west side of the NHC cone

[Stormlover2020]

Yeah who knows scott is more of the expert on this lol so waiting on him

[tireman4]

510
FXUS64 KHGX 080926
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
426 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020

.SHORT TERM (Today Through Friday Night)...

Moisture has returned to the area and satellite derived PW imagery
shows values between 2.00 and 2.20 inches. CAM`s have been
overdone with precip for this morning but with such deep moisture
available feel showers and thunderstorms should begin to develop
with daytime heating. Jet dynamics will also be factor as SE TX
lies in a RRQ. 850 mb temperatures remain warm and despite an
increase in cloud cover, the warm temps at 850 coupled with a
warm start to the day should allow temperatures to warm into the
upper 80`s today.

Hurricane Delta will be moving north today through Friday. Impacts
to SE TX will primarily be limited to the immediate coast and
marine areas with increasing winds and rain chances. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms on the periphery of Delta should reach
coastal areas tonight and it looks like there will once again be a
very tight precipitation gradient with the higher rain chances to
the east and much lower rain chances to the west. Delta is
expected to make landfall on the Lousiana coast Friday evening.
The storm will be moving at a quick pace so rain will diminish
quickly Friday evening as the storm pushes NE and away from the
area. Widespread heavy rain is not expected since SE TX lies on
the west side of Delta and coupled with the quick motion feel
rainfall totals will be manageable. Will forego a Flash Flood
Watch at this time.

The primary impacts from Delta will be an increase in N-NE winds
and elevated tides. Tide levels could reach 4.0 feet (maybe a
little higher) around Galveston Bay and some minor coastal
flooding will be possible. Have issued a Coastal Flood Warning for
the Bolivar peninsula and areas around Galveston Bay with a
Coastal Flood Advisory for the rest of the Upper Texas Coast
toward Port O Connor. Rip currents will remain strong as well.
43

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

Any residual showers over the NE zones will end early Saturday
morning and drier air will move into the region for the afternoon.
Skies will clear from SW to NE and 850 temps warm a bit from
Friday and high temperatures will scoot back into the upper 80`s.
Sunday and Monday look very warm as 850 mb temperatures warm to
mid summer values (between 21-23 C). This would support high
temperatures in the mid/upper 90`s. Model blends are cooler and
leaned toward the blends but bumped values up a degree or so
across the board. Moisture profiles look dry so no rain is
expected this weekend. A cold front will move into SE TX on
Tuesday and 850 mb temps cool to around 18 C which is still rather
warm for this time of year. Surface temperatures will cool but
still warm into the mid 80`s. The front could generate a few
showers along and ahead of it, but the moisture return ahead of
the front`s arrival looks meager. Surface high pressure will build
into the state Tuesday night and shift east on Wednesday allowing
onshore winds to return. Models diverge in solutions for the end
of next week but think the GFS is too fast with a second front it
swings through the area late Thursday and prefer the ECMWF with
another cold front next weekend. 43/FOWLER/COTTO

&&

.MARINE...

Hurricane Delta will bring an increase in winds and seas across
the coastal waters today and Friday. Tropical Storm Warnings are
in effect for the Gulf waters and Galveston Bay.

Look for seas of roughly 7-10 feet in the nearshore waters, and
15-20 feet in the offshore waters as the storm passes, with long
period waves. At the coast, the influence of the storm`s surge
with wave run-up will cause concern for coastal flooding for
vulnerable spots near the water - areas like Highway 87 at 124 on
Bolivar Peninsula. But, with the recent effect on protective
dunes by the landfall of TS Beta, Blue Water Highway will also
vulnerable, and possibly all the way down to Matagorda Bay
because of this storm`s expected large wind field. A Coastal Flood
Warning is in effect for the Bolivar peninsula and areas around
Galveston Bay. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the
remainder of the upper Texas coast. 43/COTTO

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 70 80 65 88 / 30 50 30 10 10
Houston (IAH) 87 72 78 68 87 / 50 50 80 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 75 79 71 84 / 50 70 80 40 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 3 PM CDT Friday
for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Matagorda
Islands.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Chambers...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Southern Liberty.

Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM this morning to 3 PM CDT Friday
for the following zones: Chambers...Coastal Galveston...
Coastal Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...
Galveston Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43

[tireman4]

Remember, Andrew, Belmer and McCheer are pro mets....

[tireman4]

Remember, Andrew, Belmer and McCheer are pro mets...., not to discount Scott in the slightest

[tireman4]

Eyedrop
11:38Z 23.7N 92.3W
969mb
60% RH

NW Eyewall, completely saturated air at 700mb

[unome]

updated - now 968mb

using http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... ing=cesium to view recon, love this product from tropicalatlantic

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 13:37Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Storm Number & Year: 26 in 2020
Storm Name: Delta (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 12

A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 13:12:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23.75N 92.50W
B. Center Fix Location: 347 statute miles (559 km) to the ESE (116°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,824m (9,265ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 360° at 3kts (From the N at 3mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 90kts (103.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NNE (28°) of center fix at 13:02:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 111° at 99kts (From the ESE at 113.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NNE (32°) of center fix at 13:01:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 71kts (81.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix at 13:19:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 309° at 75kts (From the NW at 86.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the SW (225°) of center fix at 13:22:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NNE (32°) from the flight level center at 13:01:30Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

[Rip76]

I guess everyone's waiting on the 10am?

[Kingwood36]

Looking that way...its looking like we are good...maybe a rain band and some wind...I feel sorry for LA

[AtascocitaWX]

Not that it would make much difference in track , but it still looks like it’s moving more WNW then NW to me. Eyes may be tripping.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 081214
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
714 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will continue for a few more hours, but expect
lowering CIGs and VCSH through the day as the outer rainbands from
Hurricane Delta approach. MVFR to IFR CIGs will occur overnight
tonight at most sites. Bands of heavier rain will begin to
approach IAH southward late tonight into early Friday morning has
Delta makes landfall in southeastern Louisiana. Moderate
northeasterly flow will continue through the day, but winds will
begin to gust up to 30kts tonight at GLS, which is in a Tropical
Storm Warning.

Fowler

&&

[Stormlover2020]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=-1

[djmike]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=-1

HRRR looks west straight into LC. That will give us in Beaumont some hefty downpours and gusty winds. As of right now, local mets are saying 40-50mph with gusts to 60 for the triangle. Hopefully Delta stays on track and no more west shifts. We are already on the cusp and any teeny tiny deviation will play a big role for Beaumont.

[Scott747]

Still moving on a 305 heading. Latest recon fix was a wobble back to the nw. The track does keep getting adjusted to the w , but barely. Almost gets to 94w before a full n motion occurs. Benchmark for the immediate area to become concerned is 95w.

This close in hard to see the NHC missing by that much...

[Stormlover2020]

Still moving on a 305 heading. Latest recon fix was a wobble back to the nw. The track does keep getting adjusted to the w , but barely. Almost gets to 94w before a full n motion occurs. Benchmark for the immediate area to become concerned is 95w.

This close in hard to see the NHC missing by that much...

So scott what about the Beaumont area, what’s where me and Dj live

[tireman4]

Watches and Warnings Delta 10 am October 8, 2020

[Scott747]

Still moving on a 305 heading. Latest recon fix was a wobble back to the nw. The track does keep getting adjusted to the w , but barely. Almost gets to 94w before a full n motion occurs. Benchmark for the immediate area to become concerned is 95w.

This close in hard to see the NHC missing by that much...

So scott what about the Beaumont area, what’s where me and Dj live

For y'all it depends on when it begins to turn to the nne. Right now the forecast is to get to about 93.8 and then begin to turn. Anything later and the turn isn't as pronounced and the impacts up there would be greater.