October 2020

[Samantha550]

Interesting that NWS has Hurricane conditions possible Friday into Saturday for Beaumont. What would be the benchmark westward position before the turn that would give credence to the Euro?

[djmike]

Interesting that NWS has Hurricane conditions possible Friday into Saturday for Beaumont. What would be the benchmark westward position before the turn that would give credence to the Euro?

I just saw that. Tropical Storm Possibly Thursday and Saturday while Hurricane Conditions Possible Friday for Beaumont. My heart dropped when I saw that. And NWS Is holding firm to the forecast.

[Stormlover2020]

Now hurricane watch

[Cromagnum]

NHC package back west. Galveston back in cone.

[davidiowx]

And further west the track goes. Still 2+ days out before landfall. I expect minor adjustments one way or the other but nothing drastic (I hope).

[don]

NWS now has tropical storm conditions in the forecast for metro Houston.Because Delta is expected to grow in size and have a pretty large windfield. A landfall from the Sabine and points west could produce close to hurricane force wind gust as far west as the I-45 corridor.

[djmike]

Curious. Why a few days ago northern and western gulf waters would not support a strong hurricane and now it will with a possible cat 3-4 at landfall? Dod the gulf recoup that fast since the other storms? ...oh I know why, its because its still 2020. Lol... No in all seriousness, just curious.

[Andrew]

Curious. Why a few days ago northern and western gulf waters would not support a strong hurricane and now it will with a possible cat 3-4 at landfall? Dod the gulf recoup that fast since the other storms? ...oh I know why, its because its still 2020. Lol... No in all seriousness, just curious.

Hmmm, I don't remember seeing people say that, but I haven't been keeping up too much. Waters are cooler once you get closer to the coast but they should still be enough to sustain a cat 2 or greater even during landfall assuming dry air and shear don't interfere too much.

[Scott747]

12z GFS is coming in just a little further w before it makes the turn.

[Andrew]

GFS further west, slower, and weaker through 42 hours.

[Scott747]

Curious. Why a few days ago northern and western gulf waters would not support a strong hurricane and now it will with a possible cat 3-4 at landfall? Dod the gulf recoup that fast since the other storms? ...oh I know why, its because its still 2020. Lol... No in all seriousness, just curious.

Hmmm, I don't remember seeing people say that, but I haven't been keeping up too much. Waters are cooler once you get closer to the coast but they should still be enough to sustain a cat 2 or greater even during landfall assuming dry air and shear don't interfere too much.

Early on when it was supposed to track closer to the Western tip of Cuba and through that part of the gulf the pool of water is cooler. This current track deeper into the Western Gulf is through a warmer section of water.

Likely what he's referring too....

[prospects8903]

I’m thinking Bmt/Port Arthur is coming into play...any thoughts?

[Scott747]

The trough still catches it and sends it towards Louisiana, but boy it sure keeps getting further and further w before it does.

[Andrew]

Curious. Why a few days ago northern and western gulf waters would not support a strong hurricane and now it will with a possible cat 3-4 at landfall? Dod the gulf recoup that fast since the other storms? ...oh I know why, its because its still 2020. Lol... No in all seriousness, just curious.

Hmmm, I don't remember seeing people say that, but I haven't been keeping up too much. Waters are cooler once you get closer to the coast but they should still be enough to sustain a cat 2 or greater even during landfall assuming dry air and shear don't interfere too much.

Early on when it was supposed to track closer to the Western tip of Cuba and through that part of the gulf the pool of water is cooler. This current track deeper into the Western Gulf is through a warmer section of water.

Likely what he's referring too....

Ah that makes sense. Also, GFS is still making landfall around the same region just slower.

[txbear]

The trough still catches it and sends it towards Louisiana, but boy it sure keeps getting further and further w before it does.

I was just looking at the trend run-over-run for the GFS (that seems to be the general consensus model to hone in on). Looks like ever so slowly went from west/central LA at 18Z Friday to now nearly lined up with the border before being slung to the NE. Really banking on the trough holding strong and catching it. But man, really feel for those folks in Cameron and surrounding areas if the track holds.

[Texaspirate11]

I feel so badly for those in Lake Charles.
They have barely recovered from Laura.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 071147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020

.AVIATION...
Clear skies will start out the TAF period as surface high pressure
continues to ridge into the area from the NE. The high shifts east
later today and deeper moisture just off the coast will move west.
A few showers will be possible late this afternoon at coastal TAF
sites. A slow increase in mid/high clouds are expected later this
afternoon with some low clouds developing this evening. Soundings
don`t show any ceilings so will keep things MVFR for now. Deeper
moisture will return on Thursday and showers look possible after
18z. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020/

SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)

Surface high pressure over the Ozark plateau will drift east today.
PW values are very dry this morning but models suggest that higher
PW air to the east will begin to approach the coast by afternoon.
Satellite derived PW imagery supports higher mstr levels approaching
so have added some lowish PoPs for coastal areas today. It should be
another warm day today and 850 mb temps support surface temperatures
in the upper 80`s. Low temperatures tonight will be considerably
warmer than the past couple of nights as low level moisture hangs
around. Low temperatures will remain in the upper 60`s to lower
70`s. Not much change in high temperatures for Thursday as 850 mb
temps remain similar to today. Moisture levels deepen and cloud
cover should be more extensive so would not be surprised if temps
are a degree or so cooler on Thursday. Fcst soundings show an
increasingly saturated profile by Thursday afternoon with PW values
increasing to between 2.20 and 2.40 inches by afternoon. SE TX will
also lie in a weak RRQ by 21z so feel showers and isolated
thunderstorms will increase in coverage during the day. Went with
high end chance PoPs for now. Moisture levels will remain high on
Thursday night and clouds will remain in place. Increasing winds on
the periphery of Hurricane Delta will produce mixing and the
combination of mixing and cloud cover should keep temperatures very
warm with lows in the lower to mid 70`s for Friday morning. 43

LONG TERM AND TROPICAL [Friday through Wednesday]...

Hurricane Delta will continue to progress northwestward to northward
and into the Northern Gulf of Mexico early Friday morning. Delta is
currently a Major Hurricane (Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) and is expected weaken slightly as it
moves across the coast of the Yucatan peninsula and re-gain strength
over the Southern Gulf of Mexico before it reaches the Northern Gulf
waters. Once over the Northern Gulf waters, the system is forecast
to weaken one more time as southwesterly wind shear associated with
an upper level trough over North and Western TX and cooler shelf
waters play havoc with the cyclone`s strength. According to the
latest NHC forecast track, Delta is to make landfall Friday
afternoon or Friday evening somewhere along the Louisiana Coast
and continue northeastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley
Saturday. Regardless of intensity, Delta may cause further damage
to vulnerable and exposed areas across portions of Louisiana from
the previous Hurricane Laura. Plan ahead of time if you have plans
to travel in that direction.

Locally, we will see additional increases in wind speeds as well as
shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the day Friday as the
northwestern and western rainbands from Delta move across SE Texas.
It is likely that we will have swells and strong winds generated by
Delta across the local Gulf waters which may produce hazardous beach
conditions including dangerous rip currents and wave runup.
Conditions for inland SE Texas should begin to improve by early
Saturday. The what/when/where of the impacts of Delta for SE Texas
will be better known later today or tonight as the forecast track
error cone narrows. At this time, we can consider high seas and
strong gusty winds along the coasts which will likely produce
dangerous marine and beach conditions. Some coastal flooding
(especially at high tide) is also possible along the usual
vulnerable spots in Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula. Also
and dependent on how strong Delta is and how large its wind field,
strong gusty winds could be experienced all the way across the
southeastern and eastern counties of the CWA. Interests along the
Central and Northwestern Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the
progress of Delta.

For the weekend into early next week, winds will be turning westerly
as Delta continues further into the CONUS, bringing hotter
temperatures into our local area. We could potentially have several
areas (particularly the western half of the CWA) with high
temperatures reaching the low 90s Saturday through Monday. Early
next week, models indicate an upper level trough moving eastward
into the Great Plains and the strengthening the surface high
pressure over the Rockies. This should push a cold front near or
across SE Texas, however, there is much disagreement on the timing
and strength of the front at this time. It is possible that the cold
front could make it into the local area sometime late Monday or
Tuesday. If the front is able to make it through, we could
experience drier and cooler conditions through mid week. 24

MARINE...

No major changes to the previous Marine forecast:

Seas of 5 feet prevailed early this morning across the offshore Gulf
waters and is expected to continue at around this height today along
with winds at 15 to 20 KTS. Caution flags have been extended for
these waters through this evening and will re-evaluate this
afternoon.

Hurricane Delta, currently a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, will continue to move northwestward to
northward and into the southern Gulf of Mexico later today. Delta
will have the chance to re-gain strength before reaching the
northern Gulf waters Thursday, but is forecast to weaken as it turns
north to northeastward and encounters southwesterly wind shear and
cooler shelf waters before making landfall somewhere in the LA coast
on Friday.

Though wind speeds may weaken a touch before landfall, it should NOT
be focused upon. Reason being, the overall wind field will probably
expand in overall area with impacts more widely distributed. This is
opposite of what Laura did. Think of the wind field like an ice
skater...he/she spins faster as arms lift and up & contract. Putting
arms out, they begin slowing down but surface area expands. Impacts
can be worse across a larger area with a large strong hurricane than
a more compact tighter intense/extreme hurricane.

Location specific impacts are a bit too early to pin down, but even
if the "center" of the hurricane tracks to the east of the upper TX
coast, tropical storm force winds remain a possibility locally and
outside of the forecast cone. The cone doesn`t imply where impacts
will be confined.

Based on the data and forecast at the current time, expect:
- Seas: building through the day Thurs into Fri, possibly peaking in
the 15 to 20 ft range.

- High surf and high risk of rip currents during the same period.

- Water levels increasing. Too early to say how much, maybe 2 ft
above normal if we remain on the west side of the axis. However,
significant wave runup is anticipated on top of that. Increasing
concern of coastal flood potential for Gulf facing locations
Thursday evening into Sat morning. North facing shorelines
(Galveston & Bolivar) may not be immune from flooding either if
strong north/northwest winds develop and push water on the back end
closer to landfall too.

- Winds: Small craft advisories will likely be in effect Thursday.
Chances for sustained tropical storm force winds over portions of
the upper TX coastal waters appear to be increasing. Should this
occur, mostly likely onset time would be Friday. Tropical storm
watches may be required later this morning.

24/47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 65 87 69 83 / 0 10 20 40 30
Houston (IAH) 87 71 87 72 79 / 10 10 30 40 60
Galveston (GLS) 83 75 83 74 80 / 20 10 40 50 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43

[tireman4]

Remember this.,..:

Though wind speeds may weaken a touch before landfall, it should NOT
be focused upon. Reason being, the overall wind field will probably
expand in overall area with impacts more widely distributed. This is
opposite of what Laura did. Think of the wind field like an ice
skater...he/she spins faster as arms lift and up & contract. Putting
arms out, they begin slowing down but surface area expands. Impacts
can be worse across a larger area with a large strong hurricane than
a more compact tighter intense/extreme hurricane.

Location specific impacts are a bit too early to pin down, but even
if the "center" of the hurricane tracks to the east of the upper TX
coast, tropical storm force winds remain a possibility locally and
outside of the forecast cone. The cone doesn`t imply where impacts
will be confined.

[Pas_Bon]

Southwest Louisiana has been on the decline for years economically. This will be a death knell for many communities down there. I’m originally from Abbeville, LA.
It’s heartbreaking.

[Andrew]

Looks like ECMWF might finally be giving in and trending east towards the GFS solution