October 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2947
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

October 2020

Post by tireman4 » Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:27 pm

I am almost hesitant to start this...I do wonder what the tropics will have in store for us this month.

User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 1302
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Magnolia, TX
Contact:

Re: October 2020

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:56 pm

First October ice storm in Houston Metro history. Book it!
Team #NeverSummer

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3452
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Re: October 2020

Post by Ptarmigan » Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:13 pm

October produce some really strong hurricanes. Some of the most intense tropical cyclones have occurred in October.

User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 577
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Baytown
Contact:

Re: October 2020

Post by sambucol » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:20 am

I hope we have no tropical systems this month, but it is 2020 after all.

User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19252
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Contact:

Re: October 2020

Post by srainhoutx » Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:35 pm

October is looking like a significant cool down for the Eastern half of the Country.
Attachments
610temp.new (2).gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 2377
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: October 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Sun Sep 27, 2020 1:36 pm

Monday's Cold Front should put a damper on tropical development in the GoM for awhile. *Maybe* for the season.

However, it is indeed 2020. Never say never! Be prepared.

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2947
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: October 2020

Post by tireman4 » Thu Oct 01, 2020 8:39 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 011004
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
504 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020


.SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Night]...
Weak ridging extends from S TX up the coast to Galveston and then
up into SRN LA. A cold front was moving into the Dallas/Fort
Worth area around 4 am and should march south today with dry
northwesterly flow aloft nudging it on. The front should move
through the areas generally north of Huntsville before 1 pm and
then into the Houston Metro mid afternoon and off the coast this
evening. Not much noticeable change with it initially other than a
slight increase in winds becoming northerly. Temperatures today
should climb (thanks in large part to the very dry air over the
region) into the 85-91 degree range. The push of cooler and drier
air arrives toward morning Friday and will be looking for lows in
the lower 50s north to near 60 coastal counties and upper 60s
coast. High pressure keeps the dry air coming in Friday and early
Saturday before slipping away to the east and return flow starts
though hampered by the off the continent trajectory. Will be
watching the potential for some tropical development late Saturday
along the big cold front that is stalled out near Yucatan Straits.
45
&&




.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

While it`ll be more of a backdoor cold front on Sun, the reinforcing
shot of cool/dry air should help to keep the rather quiet pattern in
place across SE TX through the start of the week. Still not seeing a
lot of chances for rain with FROPA (such as it is), but things could
become slightly more favorable by late Weds on through until the end
of the week. Global models are continuing to hint at the possible de-
velopment of various tropical systems forming/moving across the Gulf
during this time frame. Canadian/GFS remain the more aggressive ones
with this pattern. However, it will be very unlikely that we`ll have
any impacts on the TX coast (save for perhaps some increased swells/
seas over our offshore waters) with any of these systems. The persist-
ent upper ridge that has been holding steady over the Rockies during
this past week (and hold through the upcoming weekend) is progged to
slowly flatten and shift east starting the middle of next week. While
this should help with warming temperatures and slowly increasing low-
level moisture for the middle/latter parts of next week, still not a
lot to hang our hat on for significant POPs of the CWFA until late in
the week or even next weekend if these extended runs are anything to
go by. 41

&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR. Light westerly winds becoming north and northeast with the
passage of a cold front today. Windspeed of less than 6 knots
this morning then after FROPA increasing to 6-12 knots briefly.
45
&&

.MARINE...
With the next cold front forecast to move into the coastal waters by
this evening, the strong/gusty NE winds in its wake could prompt the
issuance of SCEC flags for our near/offshore waters for late tonight
through early Fri morning. Surface high pressure quickly moving into
and across the area will allow for these winds to decrease Fri...and
then become more easterly by the afternoon. A light/moderate SE flow
should prevail across the marine waters by Sat night...just ahead of
another next weak cold front progged to move into the coastal waters
late Sun afternoon/evening. This should produce another brief period
of SCEC conditions across the Gulf waters behind the front.

While there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the long range
forecasts of tropical system(s) developing in the Gulf next week, at
this time, we`re not expecting any significant impacts for our marine
waters...except for the possibility of increased swells/wave heights
across the offshore waters from the middle to the end of next week. 41

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 88 55 79 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 89 60 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 68 79 67 79 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
NEAR TERM...45
SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...45
MARINE...45
FIRE WEATHER...41
HYDROLOGY...
TROPICAL...
CLIMATE...41

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2947
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: October 2020

Post by tireman4 » Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:42 am

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:56 pm
First October ice storm in Houston Metro history. Book it!
That would be so 2020...LOL

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2947
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: October 2020

Post by tireman4 » Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:20 pm

072
FXUS64 KHGX 011754
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1254 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northerly winds
this afternoon will become northeasterly tonight after a weak
boundary pushes through. GLS may see some gusts up to 20 to 20mph
overnight tonight.

Fowler

&&

User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 1302
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Magnolia, TX
Contact:

Re: October 2020

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:31 pm

tireman4 wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:42 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:56 pm
First October ice storm in Houston Metro history. Book it!
That would be so 2020...LOL
Why I made the post :lol:
Team #NeverSummer

Post Reply