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12z Ukie caves and gets further w with landfall just n of Matagorda Bay as a TS and moves inland some. Stalls for a day before lifting out, albeit slower.

Trough isn't as deep. Now if the Euro starts showing a weaker trough....

And what is the Weather Channel showing? “World’s Wildest Weather.”

If this was headed toward Florida, I wonder what would be on.

12z Euro landfall in Matagorda on Monday.

Wxman57 is good at what he does but other times he is wrong..i seen him say 1 thing and the storm does another...nobody is 100% correct at forecasting

I mentioned last night that all this dry air over Texas, and all that shear was really going to kick this systems tail. I posted it then deleted it because I not want to cause a ruckus. LOL We will see.

Wow, exactly what Scott hinted at. The Euro is near San Antonio on Tuesday. That would definitely put us on the dirty side and you’d think it would be pulling in a lot of moisture from the Gulf?

Euro has been west bias all year

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:23 pm Euro has been west bias all year

It’s not just the Euro that shows this. HWRF shows it too. And we’d probably get a lot more rain with that track.

European QPF through hour 78

The Euro pattern would be a game changer dragging in a moist southeast flow...
Well inland then goes ne after visiting San Antonio.

And looks like it’s heading east at hr 96 or possibly stationary

Edit: on the Euro model run, I failed to clarify that!

Yep 12z EURO looks similar to the HWRF showing the system going further inland before being pulled by the trough to the northeast as a remnant low. I think the dry air being pulled from the west is going to make the storm lopsided with most of the moisture north and east of the center. Similar to how the 12z HRWF looks.BTW Wxman57 just stated that some places could see 10+ inches of rain MAYBE.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:24 pm

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:23 pm Euro has been west bias all year

It’s not just the Euro that shows this. HWRF shows it too. And we’d probably get a lot more rain with that track.

Gfs, icon, cmc, Ukmet, says not so fast so we shall see

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:26 pm European QPF through hour 78

Ouch. 2” for my area through 78.

Rip76 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:51 pm

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:26 pm European QPF through hour 78

Ouch. 2” for my area through 78.

Same here. For some reason not much precip even on the dirty side.

Kinda surprised that there are no flood watches posted anywhere, even on the coastal counties for rainfall.
They may not make any track changes at 4, but maybe lower the forecast strength a bit and keep the watches/warnings the same. Just my guess opinion though.

Houston to CLL are on the dirty side assuming landfall is from Corpus to Matagorda Bay. It's going to rain. A lot. Presumably not Harvey style, but...

Dry air will be wrapping on the southside, so there's going to be a GoM firehose set up with slow movement on the east side.

Haha a GOM firehose

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:02 pm Kinda surprised that there are no flood watches posted anywhere, even on the coastal counties for rainfall.
They may not make any track changes at 4, but maybe lower the forecast strength a bit and keep the watches/warnings the same. Just my guess opinion though.

They will probably issue watches and inland warnings this afternoon i would think.

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:23 pm Euro has been west bias all year

Euro tends to be more west biased on stronger systems. Weaker systems, not so much.