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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:30 pm
by Cromagnum
Ounce wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:22 pm
txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 11:53 am
snowman65 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 11:07 am
They only called for 5" for Imelda for us...we got 30"+....so..yeah, it's likely...
Folks really need to be careful with comparisons to catastrophes like Harvey. Harvey wreaked tremendous destruction to both livelihoods and lives. If this forum becomes little more than a place for hyperbolic prognostications it will do no one any good, including those who are still scarred from storms like Harvey and Imelda. People need to take a cue from our local tv mets and relay perspectives and information in a thoughtful, calm, and measured manner.
Well said.
Harvey was a category 4 when landed at Rockport. Soooo much of a stretch to claim this is a Harvey.
Wind speed does not always correlate with rain. Look at Ismelda and Allison.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:42 pm
by biggerbyte
I was going to say the same thing. Catagory of a tropical system does not have to suggest anything other than wind speed. Rainfall from even just low pressure or a depression can be tremendous if it sits and does not move out. Dry air surrounding these systems effects rainfall more than anything.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:46 pm
by snowman65
I believe today is the 1 year anniversary of Imelda.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:46 pm
by biggerbyte
I also have to agree that giving the public the heads up on the potential for flooding if this system is progged to hang around. Being wrong is safer than being uninformed.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:47 pm
by Cpv17
biggerbyte wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:42 pm
I was going to say the same thing. Catagory of a tropical system does not have to suggest anything other than wind speed. Rainfall from even just low pressure or a depression can be tremendous if it sits and does not move out. Dry air surrounding these systems effects rainfall more than anything.
Supposedly I’m hearing dry air could eat this system up as it nears Texas.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:54 pm
by Stormlover2020
It could but you listen to the storm 2 k people way much
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:56 pm
by Rip76
Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:54 pm
It could but you listen to the storm 2 k people way much
It was ‘57 that said that.
I could totally see it as well.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:58 pm
by Cpv17
Rip76 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:56 pm
Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:54 pm
It could but you listen to the storm 2 k people way much
It was ‘57 that said that.
I could totally see it as well.
Yeah that’s who I heard it from too.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:00 pm
by snowman65
what happens when they run out of Greek names?
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:01 pm
by Cromagnum
I'm good with 5-10 inches of rain spread over a week. Lots of areas badly need it.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:02 pm
by Scott747
12z Ukie caves and gets further w with landfall just n of Matagorda Bay as a TS and moves inland some. Stalls for a day before lifting out, albeit slower.
Trough isn't as deep. Now if the Euro starts showing a weaker trough....
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:14 pm
by Rip76
And what is the Weather Channel showing? “World’s Wildest Weather.”
If this was headed toward Florida, I wonder what would be on.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:15 pm
by Cpv17
12z Euro landfall in Matagorda on Monday.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:16 pm
by Kingwood36
Wxman57 is good at what he does but other times he is wrong..i seen him say 1 thing and the storm does another...nobody is 100% correct at forecasting
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:17 pm
by biggerbyte
I mentioned last night that all this dry air over Texas, and all that shear was really going to kick this systems tail. I posted it then deleted it because I not want to cause a ruckus. LOL We will see.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:22 pm
by Cpv17
Wow, exactly what Scott hinted at. The Euro is near San Antonio on Tuesday. That would definitely put us on the dirty side and you’d think it would be pulling in a lot of moisture from the Gulf?
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:23 pm
by Stormlover2020
Euro has been west bias all year
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:24 pm
by Cpv17
Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:23 pm
Euro has been west bias all year
It’s not just the Euro that shows this. HWRF shows it too. And we’d probably get a lot more rain with that track.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:26 pm
by srainhoutx
European QPF through hour 78
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:26 pm
by TexasBreeze
The Euro pattern would be a game changer dragging in a moist southeast flow...
Well inland then goes ne after visiting San Antonio.