September 2020:

[Cpv17]

Shear is beginning to drop and storms are building around the coc. Recon found the center almost exactly were forecasted and it should begin turning soon.

Naked swirl right now but I agree, as the first vis images come in, looks like it’s ready to pop over the CoC. Going to be interesting days ahead

Yup. And this more northerly component is potentially bad news for the upper Texas coast depending on where it slows down and how stacked it is once beta nears the coast.

I’m not at all sold on this storm ejecting yet. It could hang around for even longer than currently forecasted.

[Cpv17]

The 06z GFS is nothing short of interesting..

It still doesn’t really have much rain for most of SETX other than the coastal counties.

Which is odd considering the storms loops around Houston then goes NE a bit just to turn back around over Houston again.. but the last frame you can see trouble in approaching from the Yucatan.. yes yes, it’s way far out into October so it’s just for entertainment

Yeah that’s one of those CAG systems the GFS is notoriously known for.

[Cpv17]

I’m kinda thinking that the NHC cone needs to be adjusted slightly west based on all the models I’ve seen on Tropical Tidbits. It looks like they all have this going further inland.

[SLM87TX]

I think the model doesn't seem to take into account the front creating training line. Where ever it setup. That's what caused trouble in the past. Ex.Brenham in 2016. Any thoughts mets?

[weatherguy425]

Dry air is already encroaching on Beta’s circulation without an inner core developed. Of course, we can’t turn our back - but another inhibiting factor.

[Stormlover2020]

Long next 3 days to see what will happen, when u have something in gulf watch out!!!

[Kingwood36]

Dry air is already encroaching on Beta’s circulation without an inner core developed. Of course, we can’t turn our back - but another inhibiting factor.

Its not forecasted to be a hurricane till tomorrow..plenty of time for it to get its act together...but since you are a pro ill lean more towards you lol

[weatherguy425]

Dry air is already encroaching on Beta’s circulation without an inner core developed. Of course, we can’t turn our back - but another inhibiting factor.

Its not forecasted to be a hurricane till tomorrow..plenty of time for it to get its act together...but since you are a pro ill lean more towards you lol

Of course that is true... and it will still strengthen some... but the dry air isn’t going to go away. We’ll have to see how it plays out, but we’re lucky we don’t have a perfect environment in the Gulf right now.

[Cpv17]

I guess the dry air is what could possibly keep most of the precipitation offshore and we could end up getting very little action? Who knows?

[redneckweather]

100% agree on the dry air keeping Beta in check throughout its life span. That could also be a factor on the not so absurd rain totals inland as it skirts the coast.

[weatherguy425]

I guess the dry air is what could possibly keep most of the precipitation offshore and we could end up getting very little action? Who knows?

Dry air southwesterly wind shear. But, storm structure is hard to predict and can certainly evolve over time even after landfall (if it happens). Like you said, a very slow movement post landfall can’t totally be ruled out yet. That could help focus additional rain-even if it is no longer a tropical system.

[Rip76]

Looks like a bit of convection may be trying to set up near the center as we speak.

[Cromagnum]

I guess the dry air is what could possibly keep most of the precipitation offshore and we could end up getting very little action? Who knows?

Dangerous to think we aren't getting anything from this.

[Cpv17]

Just as I suspected, the NHC shifted their cone further west. It now has it going inland instead of hugging the coastline.

[Dls2010r]

Is that good or bad?

[Rip76]

Is that good or bad?

For those needing rain, it's good. (Not all at once of course)

[Dls2010r]

[quote=Dls2010r post_id=91499 time=<a href="tel:1600528820">1600528820</a> user_id=11447]
Is that good or bad?

For those needing rain, it's good. (Not all at once of course)
[/quote]

[Cromagnum]

We are still going to get a lot of rain from this.

[Cpv17]

We are still going to get a lot of rain from this.

With it basically sitting over us for 2-3 days, I’m not sure how forecasted totals are as low as they are? Seems like they’d be much higher.

[Rip76]

From NWS

...BETA STARTING ITS WESTWARD TURN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS...

*** A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake
*** A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas
*** A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana
*** A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by late Sunday or Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight, and along the south Texas coast Sunday night.

At 10 a.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located about 305 miles (495 km) east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected to begin later today, with a slow northwestward motion forecast to begin late Sunday or Sunday night and continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow strengthening is forecast to occur, and Beta is expected to be at or near hurricane strength Sunday night or Monday.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
- Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
- Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft
- Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA incl. Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft

Beta has the potential to produce a long-lived rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches beginning Saturday across southern Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Additional heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are possible through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near the Texas coast.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 4 p.m. CDT with an intermdiate advisory at 1 p.m.CDT - www.hurricanes.gov