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18z GFS is looking like the other models after what appears to be a spurious low early on that the energy is actually driven back sw towards the sw gulf.

18z looks like a silly fun

Latest qpf...so much beneficial rain just off shore next 7 days. I could use some of that here in Beaumont.

Thru hr 90 the 18z HWRF is looking more reasonable in the sense of not immediately ejecting it to the ne like the operational.

Heading wnw/nw towards the middle and upper Texas coast as a strong TS, low end cane.

*edit*

Runs right into the ridge, stops on a dime and moved due w towards Corpus.

Still much faster than all the other models.

This is going to be a fun to watch

No wonder the remaining models generally stay s of the border. One strong ridge. Starts diving wsw/sw towards the end of the HWRF.

What happened tomorrow’s certain rain even?? I had a 70% chance of rain for tomorrow, and they yanked it to 30%! seriously?!?!

Finally a good bit of rain in Friendswood.

Oh my goodness lol Dr Jim on FOX26 just said that 90L isn’t coming to Texas and the front will block it and it’ll follow the same path as Sally. Can’t believe he really just said that.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:55 pm Oh my goodness lol Dr Jim on FOX26 just said that 90L isn’t coming to Texas and the front will block it and it’ll follow the same path as Sally. Can’t believe he really just said that.

Yep, I just watched the 10:20 segment - he said “It’s not gonna come here. It has no chance to come here....notice how all the clouds are going from the SW to the NE; as soon as this storm system tries to move to the north, it’s gonna get pushed to the eastern and north-eastern parts of the Gulf, so it’s not gonna be a concern for us.”

And he had this graphic.. (no idea why it’s sideways - the original isn’t)

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:43 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:55 pm Oh my goodness lol Dr Jim on FOX26 just said that 90L isn’t coming to Texas and the front will block it and it’ll follow the same path as Sally. Can’t believe he really just said that.

Yep, I just watched the 10:20 segment - he said “It’s not gonna come here. It has no chance to come here....notice how all the clouds are going from the SW to the NE; as soon as this storm system tries to move to the north, it’s gonna get pushed to the eastern and north-eastern parts of the Gulf, so it’s not gonna be a concern for us.”

And he had this graphic.. (no idea why it’s sideways - the original isn’t)
3ADAC822-3E66-447C-B936-14009EAB5DC1.jpeg

Channel 13 said that 90L has weak steering and that our front coming in will keep it to the South of us - STx/Mx

I've never been a fan of dr jim..he's often more wrong then right alot of times

0z ICON is quite the run.

Shifts n and comes in around Matagorda Bay as a hurricane and rides the coast up to Galveston.

0z GFS tries to develop e of Brownsville and then moves a weak system n towards sw la.

I did not expect to wake up to this but it is 2020 so who knows. Hopefully it stay well south or east of us.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
510 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Sally, located inland over southeastern Alabama, on
Hurricane Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on
Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better
organized this morning in association with a well-defined low
pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for
development and, if this recent development trend continues,
a tropical depression or a tropical could form later today. The
low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for
the next day or so before moving slowly northward to
northeastward on Friday and Saturday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Not totally surprising. It certainly has blossomed overnight.

First forecast should be a doozy. Euro is the only one that completely ejects the system out to the NE. The rest has it caught up in weak steering currents or buries it below the border.

Here is Jeff’s take on 90L:

Tropical depression or storm likely forming over the southwest Gulf of Mexico

Satellite images overnight show what is likely an organizing tropical system over the extreme southwest Gulf of Mexico just east of the eastern Mexican coast. Deep convection has developed near or west of what has likely been the formation of a surface low pressure center. A USAF mission will investigate this feature later today to determine if a tropical depression or storm has formed.

Most global model guidance continues to develop 90L and moves it very slowly over the southern Gulf of Mexico as a cool front moves into the northern Gulf this weekend helping to trap the system south of the frontal boundary. It appears the trough associated with the front will help to pull 90L toward the NE into the west-central Gulf of Mexico, but not strong enough to pull the system toward the north-central Gulf. 90L then becomes under the influence of the building high pressure behind the front and will potentially turn westward toward the western or northwestern Gulf of Mexico slowly early next week. There are any number of possible track solutions on the table and confidence in any of the solutions is very low given the overall weak steering patterns that will be in place. It is possible that 90L will be over the Gulf of Mexico for a good portion of next week.

I cannot stress enough how low confidence any forecast solution is at this time with 90L given the various competing track factors and overall weak steering.

As for intensity, overall the pattern looks favorable in the near term for intensification and it is likely that a tropical storm will form as early as later today. Strengthening would be likely over the next 24-48 hours as the system will be over very warm waters in a low shear environment. Over the weekend, a very dry air mass associated with a frontal boundary will move into the northern and portions of the western Gulf of Mexico and some of this dry air may become entrained into the circulation and this could limit development. Most guidance keeps the system as a tropical storm while lingering over the Gulf of Mexico for several days.

Impacts:
The combination of lowering pressure in the southern Gulf combined with building high pressure over the OH valley will produce a moderate to strong pressure gradient over the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico starting this weekend and lasting into next week. This is a favorable wind pattern for water level rise along the upper TX coast and using the GFS based extra-tropical storm surge forecast does show coastal water levels nearing 4.0 ft above MLLW by the Sunday high tides. Coastal flooding will be possible as early as Sunday and more likely into next week as the tropical system lingers over the western Gulf south of the upper TX coast resulting in a long fetch ENE/E wind flow.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 170943
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
443 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Friday]...

Weak impulses embedded within the mid/upper level Texas trough is
expected to bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to portions
of Southeast Texas through Friday. Early morning activity is mainly
light to moderate rain that is moving to the east and northeast across
the area. Once this batch moves on through, daytime heating is expected
to help to generate another round of activity. Could see lingering rains
tonight and tomorrow morning followed by a drying trend from north to
south as the day progresses when a cold front moves across the area.

Temperature forecast is a little tricky for both today and tomorrow
as any significant cloud cover could possibly keep high temperatures
below 90 degrees. The cooler overnight low temperatures will not
enter the area until Friday night. 42

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Wednesday]...

A first taste of autumn comes to SE TX this weekend as a surface
cold front approaches the region late Friday, advancing towards the
coast by Saturday morning. While the passage of this shallow
boundary will only slightly lower temperatures, a surge of drier air
in its wake will drop surface dew points substantially across the
region. Most locations north of I-10 will see dew points in the 50s
by late Saturday, while areas closer to the coast will drop into the
low to mid 60s. As this drier air moves in, surface PWs lower to
below 1.0 in by Saturday afternoon which should generally inhibit
diurnally driven showers and storms across inland areas. The chance
for isolated activity will remain along the coast and across the
bays and coastal waters, though this will largely be dependent on
how far the front pushes southward before stalling offshore. All in
all, it should be a pleasant weekend with the reduced humidity
resulting in heat indicies in the upper 80s to low 90s, near or
equal to the forecast daily high temperatures. Overnight lows
through the weekend should generally sit in the mid to upper 60s
across most of the area, though areas around Bryan/College Station,
Crockett, and Madisonville will have a shot at reaching the upper
50s. Daytime highs should remain in the upper 80s to low 90s through
at least the middle of next week.

Our attention turns to the tropics as we head into next week. The
latest analysis by the National Hurricane Center now gives the
developing area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche a 90%
chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours.
There remains a significant deal of uncertainty across forecast
models in regarding this system`s eventual evolution and eventual
track, though a general lack of steering flow should initially keep
the system fairly stagnant in the southwestern Gulf through the
early part of the week. Confidence in the track of the development
of the system by mid-week is currently very low. At this time we do
not anticipate direct impacts to SE Texas beyond increasing seas and
rising water levels along the coast. However, we will continue to
monitor this system very closely over the next several days as the
forecast picture becomes clearer. For the latest tropical weather
information, consult www.hurricanes.gov.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...

Light to occasional moderate north and northeast winds are expected
today and tonight. A cold front will move off the coast at the end
of the week. This boundary in combination with an area of low pressure
in the western Gulf will lead to increasing northeast winds, building
seas and rising water levels over the weekend and on into the first
half of next week. Mariners should monitor the western Gulf system
for possible tropical depression or tropical storm formation. 42

&&

.CLIMATE...

Yesterday was another day where temperature records were tied or broken.
Galveston`s and Houston Hobby`s highs of 96 tied the old records of
96 that were set in 2004 (same for both locations). In addition to the
record highs, Houston Hobby`s low temperature of 80 degrees set a new
record high minimum temperature for September 16th. The previous record
was 79 degrees set in 2016.

Through September 16th, Galveston has either tied or broken nine September
temperatures records and Houston Hobby has either tied or broken ten
temperature records. Galveston`s average temperature of 87.5 degrees
is tied for the warmest September 1-16 period on record (records date
back to 1874). Hobby`s average temperature of 86.8 degrees is the warmest
September 1-16 period on record (records date back to 1930). 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 70 87 63 84 / 40 40 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 90 73 90 68 87 / 30 30 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 79 88 74 86 / 30 30 30 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

6z HWRF takes a weak to moderate TS around Port A and Corpus next Monday.

Safe to say its too early to tell where this one might go.