September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Scott747
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Re: September 2020

Post by Scott747 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:46 pm

18z GFS is looking like the other models after what appears to be a spurious low early on that the energy is actually driven back sw towards the sw gulf.

Stormlover2020
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Re: September 2020

Post by Stormlover2020 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:04 pm

18z looks like a silly fun

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djmike
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Re: September 2020

Post by djmike » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:04 pm

Latest qpf...so much beneficial rain just off shore next 7 days. I could use some of that here in Beaumont.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College St. area)

Scott747
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Re: September 2020

Post by Scott747 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:00 pm

Thru hr 90 the 18z HWRF is looking more reasonable in the sense of not immediately ejecting it to the ne like the operational.

Heading wnw/nw towards the middle and upper Texas coast as a strong TS, low end cane.

*edit*

Runs right into the ridge, stops on a dime and moved due w towards Corpus.

Still much faster than all the other models.

Stormlover2020
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Re: September 2020

Post by Stormlover2020 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:20 pm

This is going to be a fun to watch

Scott747
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Re: September 2020

Post by Scott747 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:22 pm

No wonder the remaining models generally stay s of the border. One strong ridge. Starts diving wsw/sw towards the end of the HWRF.

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jasons2k
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Re: September 2020

Post by jasons2k » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:48 pm

What happened tomorrow’s certain rain even?? I had a 70% chance of rain for tomorrow, and they yanked it to 30%! seriously?!?!

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Rip76
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Re: September 2020

Post by Rip76 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:35 pm

Finally a good bit of rain in Friendswood.

Cpv17
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Re: September 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:55 pm

Oh my goodness lol Dr Jim on FOX26 just said that 90L isn’t coming to Texas and the front will block it and it’ll follow the same path as Sally. Can’t believe he really just said that.

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jasons2k
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Re: September 2020

Post by jasons2k » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:43 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:55 pm
Oh my goodness lol Dr Jim on FOX26 just said that 90L isn’t coming to Texas and the front will block it and it’ll follow the same path as Sally. Can’t believe he really just said that.
Yep, I just watched the 10:20 segment - he said “It’s not gonna come here. It has no chance to come here....notice how all the clouds are going from the SW to the NE; as soon as this storm system tries to move to the north, it’s gonna get pushed to the eastern and north-eastern parts of the Gulf, so it’s not gonna be a concern for us.”

And he had this graphic.. (no idea why it’s sideways - the original isn’t)
3ADAC822-3E66-447C-B936-14009EAB5DC1.jpeg

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