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With the rough year the globals have had it's easy to be dismissive of modeling. However it's still a significant part of how the NHC forecasts development and tracks. It's why they use a blend of model consensus aides like the TVCN etc...

I've been impressed by the HWRF this current season as stand alone guidance and I must say the initial run is something to keep close eye on. It only weakens as it bends back w towards the upper Texas coast under the influence of high pressure with it tracking across land. If it were to do so before any type of landfall it would be a different ballgame.

If by chance the model is correct then the timeframe is quite accelerated and would catch people off guard.

cperk wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:13 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:38 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:32 pm

Possibly in between.

What models take it in between? I either see Mexico or Louisiana. I know that will probably change but that’s just what I see right now.

Check out the 12Z icon just because no model has indicated somewhere on the Texas coast doesn’t mean you should rule it out.

Yes, I know. You guys are confused at what I’m trying to say. I’m only saying what the models are showing as of the latest runs. I have over 25 years of tracking the weather lol I know models will change, especially this year. I’m not ruling out anything.

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:42 pm Because ur modeling hugging lol, no models have been good this year, hwrf takes it to la and then into Texas and back in the gulf, gfs takes it into la and Texas also, cmc keeps it off cost down towards Brownsville, icon has it towards Brownsville.

I’m not model hugging. I’m only saying what the models are showing per the latest runs from what I saw.

The 12z eps is all over Louisiana. Not sure if it bends back w after that though.

Remember, it does help to have a COC to start with. Otherwise, all bets can be off.

tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:54 pm Remember, it does help to have a COC to start with. Otherwise, all bets can be off.

I’m wondering how much that actually helps. I’ve noticed that even when the COC actually forms, the models often times don’t change too much.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:08 pm

tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:54 pm Remember, it does help to have a COC to start with. Otherwise, all bets can be off.

I’m wondering how much that actually helps. I’ve noticed that even when the COC actually forms, the models often times don’t change too much.

I have seen it the other way as well. Patience is the key.

It’s going to be mostly about where the center forms, but models suck this year so all the model watching will make ur eyes hurt

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:26 pm It’s going to be mostly about where the center forms, but models suck this year so all the model watching will make ur eyes hurt

I’m just glad we have something to talk about.

Yeah no doubt, also watch the tvcn model also the hurricane center blends that in with path

18z GFS is looking like the other models after what appears to be a spurious low early on that the energy is actually driven back sw towards the sw gulf.

18z looks like a silly fun

Latest qpf...so much beneficial rain just off shore next 7 days. I could use some of that here in Beaumont.

Thru hr 90 the 18z HWRF is looking more reasonable in the sense of not immediately ejecting it to the ne like the operational.

Heading wnw/nw towards the middle and upper Texas coast as a strong TS, low end cane.

*edit*

Runs right into the ridge, stops on a dime and moved due w towards Corpus.

Still much faster than all the other models.

This is going to be a fun to watch

No wonder the remaining models generally stay s of the border. One strong ridge. Starts diving wsw/sw towards the end of the HWRF.

What happened tomorrow’s certain rain even?? I had a 70% chance of rain for tomorrow, and they yanked it to 30%! seriously?!?!

Finally a good bit of rain in Friendswood.

Oh my goodness lol Dr Jim on FOX26 just said that 90L isn’t coming to Texas and the front will block it and it’ll follow the same path as Sally. Can’t believe he really just said that.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:55 pm Oh my goodness lol Dr Jim on FOX26 just said that 90L isn’t coming to Texas and the front will block it and it’ll follow the same path as Sally. Can’t believe he really just said that.

Yep, I just watched the 10:20 segment - he said “It’s not gonna come here. It has no chance to come here....notice how all the clouds are going from the SW to the NE; as soon as this storm system tries to move to the north, it’s gonna get pushed to the eastern and north-eastern parts of the Gulf, so it’s not gonna be a concern for us.”

And he had this graphic.. (no idea why it’s sideways - the original isn’t)