September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Scott747
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Re: September 2020

Post by Scott747 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:19 pm

With the rough year the globals have had it's easy to be dismissive of modeling. However it's still a significant part of how the NHC forecasts development and tracks. It's why they use a blend of model consensus aides like the TVCN etc...

I've been impressed by the HWRF this current season as stand alone guidance and I must say the initial run is something to keep close eye on. It only weakens as it bends back w towards the upper Texas coast under the influence of high pressure with it tracking across land. If it were to do so before any type of landfall it would be a different ballgame.

If by chance the model is correct then the timeframe is quite accelerated and would catch people off guard.

Cpv17
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Re: September 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:35 pm

cperk wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:13 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:38 pm
cperk wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:32 pm


Possibly in between.
What models take it in between? I either see Mexico or Louisiana. I know that will probably change but that’s just what I see right now.
Check out the 12Z icon just because no model has indicated somewhere on the Texas coast doesn’t mean you should rule it out.
Yes, I know. You guys are confused at what I’m trying to say. I’m only saying what the models are showing as of the latest runs. I have over 25 years of tracking the weather lol I know models will change, especially this year. I’m not ruling out anything.

Cpv17
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Re: September 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:36 pm

Stormlover2020 wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:42 pm
Because ur modeling hugging lol, no models have been good this year, hwrf takes it to la and then into Texas and back in the gulf, gfs takes it into la and Texas also, cmc keeps it off cost down towards Brownsville, icon has it towards Brownsville.
I’m not model hugging. I’m only saying what the models are showing per the latest runs from what I saw.

Cpv17
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Re: September 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:47 pm

The 12z eps is all over Louisiana. Not sure if it bends back w after that though.

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tireman4
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Re: September 2020

Post by tireman4 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:54 pm

Remember, it does help to have a COC to start with. Otherwise, all bets can be off.

Cpv17
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Re: September 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:08 pm

tireman4 wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:54 pm
Remember, it does help to have a COC to start with. Otherwise, all bets can be off.
I’m wondering how much that actually helps. I’ve noticed that even when the COC actually forms, the models often times don’t change too much.

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tireman4
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Re: September 2020

Post by tireman4 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:22 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:08 pm
tireman4 wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:54 pm
Remember, it does help to have a COC to start with. Otherwise, all bets can be off.
I’m wondering how much that actually helps. I’ve noticed that even when the COC actually forms, the models often times don’t change too much.
I have seen it the other way as well. Patience is the key.

Stormlover2020
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Re: September 2020

Post by Stormlover2020 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:26 pm

It’s going to be mostly about where the center forms, but models suck this year so all the model watching will make ur eyes hurt

Cpv17
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Re: September 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:35 pm

Stormlover2020 wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:26 pm
It’s going to be mostly about where the center forms, but models suck this year so all the model watching will make ur eyes hurt
I’m just glad we have something to talk about.

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Re: September 2020

Post by Stormlover2020 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:38 pm

Yeah no doubt, also watch the tvcn model also the hurricane center blends that in with path

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