September 2020:
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Lol u meant Mexico to la
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 161741
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1241 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
.AVIATION...
No real surprises with the 18z TAF package. VFR conditions should
mostly prevail with exceptions being in any isolated stronger
cells that manage to develop later this afternoon (some of which
could produce gusty winds). Precip should mostly taper off this
evening with the loss of heating, though some activity may linger
overnight to our west as weak upper disturbances edge closer. On
Thursday, though available moisture is a touch reduced, large
scale lift increases somewhat and there is considerable uncertainty
in regards to the amount of daytime precip redevelops once temps
climb into the upper 80s. Some guidance shows more than others.
Think scattered activity north and west of the Highway 59-Interstate
69 corridor & maybe a bit less further southeast looks a
reasonable start. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 72 86 68 86 / 20 20 50 40 20
Houston (IAH) 95 76 91 73 90 / 30 30 40 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 93 81 90 78 88 / 20 30 40 40 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 161741
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1241 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
.AVIATION...
No real surprises with the 18z TAF package. VFR conditions should
mostly prevail with exceptions being in any isolated stronger
cells that manage to develop later this afternoon (some of which
could produce gusty winds). Precip should mostly taper off this
evening with the loss of heating, though some activity may linger
overnight to our west as weak upper disturbances edge closer. On
Thursday, though available moisture is a touch reduced, large
scale lift increases somewhat and there is considerable uncertainty
in regards to the amount of daytime precip redevelops once temps
climb into the upper 80s. Some guidance shows more than others.
Think scattered activity north and west of the Highway 59-Interstate
69 corridor & maybe a bit less further southeast looks a
reasonable start. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 72 86 68 86 / 20 20 50 40 20
Houston (IAH) 95 76 91 73 90 / 30 30 40 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 93 81 90 78 88 / 20 30 40 40 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Could be like Frances (1998)
What models take it in between? I either see Mexico or Louisiana. I know that will probably change but that’s just what I see right now.
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Because ur modeling hugging lol, no models have been good this year, hwrf takes it to la and then into Texas and back in the gulf, gfs takes it into la and Texas also, cmc keeps it off cost down towards Brownsville, icon has it towards Brownsville.
- Texaspirate11
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Wouldn't the dry air behind this so called cold front shunt this storm away from us??
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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- Location: NW Houston, TX
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Modeling has been rough this year missing all sorts of storms and intensity issues.
LA or MX would be fitting considering the pattern so far. Expect a sharp gradient in precip too.
LA or MX would be fitting considering the pattern so far. Expect a sharp gradient in precip too.
Check out the 12Z icon just because no model has indicated somewhere on the Texas coast doesn’t mean you should rule it out.
With the rough year the globals have had it's easy to be dismissive of modeling. However it's still a significant part of how the NHC forecasts development and tracks. It's why they use a blend of model consensus aides like the TVCN etc...
I've been impressed by the HWRF this current season as stand alone guidance and I must say the initial run is something to keep close eye on. It only weakens as it bends back w towards the upper Texas coast under the influence of high pressure with it tracking across land. If it were to do so before any type of landfall it would be a different ballgame.
If by chance the model is correct then the timeframe is quite accelerated and would catch people off guard.
I've been impressed by the HWRF this current season as stand alone guidance and I must say the initial run is something to keep close eye on. It only weakens as it bends back w towards the upper Texas coast under the influence of high pressure with it tracking across land. If it were to do so before any type of landfall it would be a different ballgame.
If by chance the model is correct then the timeframe is quite accelerated and would catch people off guard.
Yes, I know. You guys are confused at what I’m trying to say. I’m only saying what the models are showing as of the latest runs. I have over 25 years of tracking the weather lol I know models will change, especially this year. I’m not ruling out anything.
I’m not model hugging. I’m only saying what the models are showing per the latest runs from what I saw.Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:42 pm Because ur modeling hugging lol, no models have been good this year, hwrf takes it to la and then into Texas and back in the gulf, gfs takes it into la and Texas also, cmc keeps it off cost down towards Brownsville, icon has it towards Brownsville.
The 12z eps is all over Louisiana. Not sure if it bends back w after that though.
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It’s going to be mostly about where the center forms, but models suck this year so all the model watching will make ur eyes hurt
I’m just glad we have something to talk about.Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:26 pm It’s going to be mostly about where the center forms, but models suck this year so all the model watching will make ur eyes hurt
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Yeah no doubt, also watch the tvcn model also the hurricane center blends that in with path