September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stormlover2020
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Re: September 2020

Post by Stormlover2020 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:30 pm

Lol u meant Mexico to la

cperk
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Re: September 2020

Post by cperk » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:32 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:26 pm
From what I’m gathering after the latest runs it looks like either Mexico or Louisiana.
Possibly in between.

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tireman4
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Re: September 2020

Post by tireman4 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:33 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161741
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1241 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

.AVIATION...
No real surprises with the 18z TAF package. VFR conditions should
mostly prevail with exceptions being in any isolated stronger
cells that manage to develop later this afternoon (some of which
could produce gusty winds). Precip should mostly taper off this
evening with the loss of heating, though some activity may linger
overnight to our west as weak upper disturbances edge closer. On
Thursday, though available moisture is a touch reduced, large
scale lift increases somewhat and there is considerable uncertainty
in regards to the amount of daytime precip redevelops once temps
climb into the upper 80s. Some guidance shows more than others.
Think scattered activity north and west of the Highway 59-Interstate
69 corridor & maybe a bit less further southeast looks a
reasonable start. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 72 86 68 86 / 20 20 50 40 20
Houston (IAH) 95 76 91 73 90 / 30 30 40 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 93 81 90 78 88 / 20 30 40 40 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AtascocitaWX
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Re: September 2020

Post by AtascocitaWX » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:34 pm

Could be like Frances (1998)

Cpv17
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Re: September 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:38 pm

cperk wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:32 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:26 pm
From what I’m gathering after the latest runs it looks like either Mexico or Louisiana.
Possibly in between.
What models take it in between? I either see Mexico or Louisiana. I know that will probably change but that’s just what I see right now.

Stormlover2020
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Re: September 2020

Post by Stormlover2020 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:42 pm

Because ur modeling hugging lol, no models have been good this year, hwrf takes it to la and then into Texas and back in the gulf, gfs takes it into la and Texas also, cmc keeps it off cost down towards Brownsville, icon has it towards Brownsville.

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Texaspirate11
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Re: September 2020

Post by Texaspirate11 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:47 pm

Wouldn't the dry air behind this so called cold front shunt this storm away from us??
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TexasBreeze
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Re: September 2020

Post by TexasBreeze » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:49 pm

Modeling has been rough this year missing all sorts of storms and intensity issues.
LA or MX would be fitting considering the pattern so far. Expect a sharp gradient in precip too.

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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:12 pm

cperk wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:32 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:26 pm
From what I’m gathering after the latest runs it looks like either Mexico or Louisiana.
Possibly in between.
Now that's a cone! :lol:

cperk
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Re: September 2020

Post by cperk » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:13 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:38 pm
cperk wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:32 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:26 pm
From what I’m gathering after the latest runs it looks like either Mexico or Louisiana.
Possibly in between.
What models take it in between? I either see Mexico or Louisiana. I know that will probably change but that’s just what I see right now.
Check out the 12Z icon just because no model has indicated somewhere on the Texas coast doesn’t mean you should rule it out.

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