September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Re: September 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:52 am

Up to 40/60 now.

cperk
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Re: September 2020

Post by cperk » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:59 am

90L according to the NHC 5 day outlook will be still sitting in the sw GOM.

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sambucol
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Re: September 2020

Post by sambucol » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:51 am

Is there anything stopping it from heading to the Houston/Galveston area?

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tireman4
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Re: September 2020

Post by tireman4 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:38 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161128
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

.AVIATION...

Expecting to see some SHRA/TSRA development mainly in the afternoon
to the w thru SW of the CXO-IAH area. N winds will be roughly in a 5
to 10 knot range. Any storms that do develop will dissipate after sunset,
and VFR can be expected for most TAF sites tonight. Some SHRA/TSRA development
is possible before sunrise tomorrow, but look for better chances as
the day progresses as a disturbance moves into the area. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday]...

Another very warm and mostly dry day can be expected today across Southeast
Texas. Isolated mainly afternoon through early evening showers and possible
thunderstorms are anticipated to develop during the peak heating hours.
High temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s across a majority of
the area. A disturbance moving across the state on Thursday will bring
better rain chances to the area, possibly beginning before sunrise then
increasing as the day progresses with a peak probably during the afternoon
through early evening hours. If this materializes, the clouds and rain
should keep afternoon high temperatures several degrees lower than
what has been recorded over the past couple of days. 42

LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Tuesday]...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the approach of the
shortwave trough on Thursday will diminish in the evening hours with
the loss of daytime heating, though abundant low-level moisture and
favorable jet dynamics may support additional development over the
coastal waters. This will continue on Friday as the upper trough
axis and associated jet streak sags southeastward, placing the
offshore waters within the streak`s right front quadrant. Have
continued to carry chance PoPs for most areas south of I-10 as
daytime highs should reach convective temps in the upper 80s, but
most favorable chances remain offshore given the upper-level support.

Heading into the weekend, our attention turns to the approach of a
surface cold front which could not only bring the first taste of
autumn to SE TX but but also influence the eventual trajectory of a
potential tropical system being monitored in the southwestern Gulf.
00Z GFS & ECMWF both continue to bring a shallow frontal boundary to
the northern zones on Friday, though both solutions have sped up
slightly in the past 24hrs with its arrival now occurring on Friday
afternoon. The boundary should push through the area and eventually
stall offshore on Saturday morning, allowing for a hefty surge of
drier air in its wake that will drive 2-m dew points downward by
around 10-15 F across the board by Sunday. While daytime highs are
unlikely to waver much as 850mb temps look to hold around 17-18 C,
the drop off in humidity will result in max heat indicies around 85-
90 through the end of the weekend which should keep things
(relatively) pleasant outside. With inland PWs dropping off sharply
behind the boundary, should see precipitation confined to the
coastal waters with the slight chance of activity expanding to the
coast. Of course, confidence in this forecast will increase as the
NAM/other higher resolution models begin to depict this feature but
for the time being it`s shaping up to be a generally clear and dry
weekend across SE TX.

The NHC continues to monitor a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf
near the Bay of Campeche that has a 40% probability to develop into
a tropical depression over the next 5 days. While high pressure
behind the aforementioned cold front should generally work to
slow/stall the system as it pushes northward during the beginning of
the week, its approach could potentially bring significant rainfall
to the coastal waters. Much of this feature`s development remains
uncertain and will be tied to the strength of the surface boundary
and its eventual evolution as it reaches the coast, and global
models have shown large spread in its eventual track and
development. Nonetheless, we will continue to monitor this
disturbance closely over the next several days.

Cady

MARINE...

The downward trend in seas will continue through Thursday with light
to occasional moderate north and northeast winds. Heading into the
weekend, look for a cold front to move off the coast. This front in
combination with a lingering disturbance in the western Gulf will lead
to increasing northeast winds, building seas and rising water levels
into early next week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected
too, especially at the end of the weekend and into the start of next
week. Mariners should monitor the western Gulf system for possible
tropical depression formation later this week or over the weekend.

CLIMATE...

It has been a very warm fist half of September (1-15) for a large portion
of Southeast Texas. The City of Houston`s average temperature of 85.5
degrees is 3.8 degrees above normal. Only one day this month (the 8th)
has the average temperature been below normal. Houston Hobby`s average
temperature of 86.7 degrees is 4.8 degrees above normal. Every day this
month has seen average temperatures above normal. The City of Galveston`s
average temperature of 87.4 degrees is 4.3 degrees above normal. Only
one day this month (the 8th) has the average temperature been below
normal.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 72 86 68 86 / 20 20 50 40 20
Houston (IAH) 95 76 91 73 90 / 20 20 40 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 93 81 90 78 88 / 10 20 40 40 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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Rip76
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Re: September 2020

Post by Rip76 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:22 am

sambucol wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:51 am
Is there anything stopping it from heading to the Houston/Galveston area?
I believe there is a front coming down later this week. (I believe)

Scott747
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Re: September 2020

Post by Scott747 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:49 am

It's sad when you look at the ICON before the GFS....

12z ICON and Canadian are further n.

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Re: September 2020

Post by Scott747 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:07 am

12z Ukie is also a bit further n. 100 mi or so offshore of La Pesca moving wnw at the end of the run.

Cpv17
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Re: September 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:15 am

Probably wouldn’t get anything here if it goes into NMX. Corpus Christi yeah, south of there probably little to nothing.

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Re: September 2020

Post by Stormlover2020 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:46 am

Models been so bad this year

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Re: September 2020

Post by Scott747 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:50 am

Hurricane models are running this cycle.

12z HWRF is well off the coast of Brownsville as a strong tropical storm thru 66 hrs.

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