September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Rip76
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Re: September 2020

Post by Rip76 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:37 pm

We could use some rain, but it’ll probably do its BOC dance to Louisiana.
Totally 2005.

TexasBreeze
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Re: September 2020

Post by TexasBreeze » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:29 pm

There seems to be no unorganized disturbances to bring us rain unless you count the one to the south that gave some areas a little rain Sat/Sun and south TX rain today. Everything spins up then goes north or east instead of west.

Cromagnum
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Re: September 2020

Post by Cromagnum » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:28 pm

So...when is an actual cold front looking optimistic? October?

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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:34 am

Cromagnum wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:28 pm
So...when is an actual cold front looking optimistic? October?
Saturday looks like a Chamber of Commerce day up here. Low to mid 80s, sunny; low of 62°F

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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:10 am

Sally has her eye on Mobile Bay now. She's weakened overnight, but since she's nearly stalled we're looking at rain measured in feet rather than inches on the AL/FL/MS coast.

gregco31
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Re: September 2020

Post by gregco31 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:51 am

I saw a little bit about it yesterday I think, but do we think there is anything worth paying attention to in the southern Gulf right now?

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jasons2k
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Re: September 2020

Post by jasons2k » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:11 pm

From Jeff:

Cool front to potentially move across SE TX this weekend.

Will need to monitor the southwest Gulf of Mexico late this weekend and next week

SE TX remains sandwiched between the western subsidence side of slow moving hurricane Sally over the northern Gulf of Mexico and an upper level trough of low pressure over the far western and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This is generally producing a drier NE wind flow over the area with just an isolated scattering of heat of the day showers and thunderstorms. This pattern will hold into Wednesday, but begins to undergo change by Thursday and into the weekend.

As Sally moves slowly inland and then NE further away from SE TX, its subsidence on the west edge will end over SE TX by late Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will approach from the NW on Thursday and this feature coupled with increasing Gulf moisture will likely result in a fairly active day of showers and thunderstorms. This trough looks to linger over the area into Friday and potentially Saturday before a “cool” front moves into the area on Saturday. Latest guidance continues the theme of moving this front through the area and out into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend and there may be some slightly better chances of this happening than with the last front as the northerly flow on the west side of Sally may help this pattern. Will go with a drier air mass moving into the region on Saturday and lingering into Sunday.

Western Gulf:
NHC has been monitoring a trough of low pressure that has been drifting SW and S over the Gulf of Mexico for several days. This feature is expected to remain over the southern Gulf and Bay of Campeche into early next week while a frontal boundary drifts into the northern Gulf. Global forecast models have shown a bit more potential for development with this feature in some of their more recent runs and indicate that a more defined area of low pressure may develop late this weekend or early next week over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Position of forecast large scale high pressure behind the cool front should keep any feature that tries to develop slow moving over the southwest or southern Gulf and eventually a slow west motion. This is something to monitor in the coming days, but at this time any threat to TX looks unlikely.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

Scott747
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Re: September 2020

Post by Scott747 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:20 pm

There has definitely been a building consensus on development in the sw gulf. 12z Ukie has a borderline cane around Tampico and the 12z Euro has a strong ts near Brownsville.

With the increase in modeling it should get an invest tag soon and the hurricane models will start running. Given their performance this season, the sooner the better.

For now I don't see anything to kick it this way but still plenty of time for changes.

TexasBreeze
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Re: September 2020

Post by TexasBreeze » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:23 pm

The Euro has been consistently showing 15+ inches of rain with even some 30" areas offshore TX and deep south TX. The GFS not so much. CMC is further south.

Stormlover2020
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Re: September 2020

Post by Stormlover2020 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:32 pm

Keep shifting north, steering currents weak, wouldn’t surprise to crawl up this way, but we are more than 7 days out so have time to watch

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