September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2948
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: September 2020:

Post by tireman4 » Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:07 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 280811
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
311 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday Night]...

Per the latest obs/radar, the cold front very close to the northern
borders of SE TX at this time. Not seeing much by way of precipita-
tion along western end of the line as it tracks S/SE, with the bulk
of the development to our NE/E. Near term guidance has been hinting
that we`ll likely see a line of showers with isolated thunderstorms
form as this boundary moves across the area through the morning and
early afternoon hours. And so far...seeing nothing to disagree with
this nor the slightly faster forward speed (compared to yesterday`s
runs). As such, the front is expected to be at the coast by noon...
but the much cooler/drier air will be lagging by a few hours. Highs
today will probably be this morning as temperatures slowly fall (or
hold steady) through the afternoon given the strong/gusty northerly
winds. Will also be considering a Wind Advisory for the western and
coastal portions of the CWA for this afternoon.

Otherwise, lows tonight will range from the lower to mid 50s across
the northern half of the area, and in the mid and upper 50s for the
southern. This cool/dry weather will prevail through tomorrow night
but the slow movement of the surface high to the east and the subs-
equent return of light SW/S low-level winds could help warm temper-
atures into the lower and mid 80s by Weds afternoon. 41


&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...

Dry nw flow aloft should maintain pleasant wx across the area.
Surface high pressure will move to the east around Thursday, but
weak onshore winds won`t time to modify the airmass before another,
albeit much weaker, frontal boundary backdoors into the area late
Thur night and Fri. Anticipate a gradual warming/moistening trend to
begin this weekend into early next week as southeast winds resume. 47

&&

.MARINE...

Cold front will push off the coast by mid morning with 20-30kt
northerly winds in its wake. Gusts to gale are possible into the
overnight hours. Small Craft Advisories are already out. Seas around
3 feet early this morning will build into the 6-10ft range well
offshore by tonight. Marine conditions slowly improve later Tue into
midweek as high pressure builds into the area and winds/seas
subside. Light onshore winds may briefly resume Thurs, but am
expecting a weaker reinforcing front to backdoor into the waters
late Thurs night into Fri causing winds to back around to the
northeast. Onshore flow resumes this weekend as surface high
pressure moves off to the east. 47


&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

This next TAF package should start off busy/messy with the passage
of the cold front...but we should see CIGS/precipitation lift from
the north to south from 12-18Z. Thereafter the main issue looks to
be the gusty north winds through the afternoon. These winds should
decrease this evening across the CWA except the coastal sites (GLS
and possibly LBX). 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 53 79 54 84 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 79 59 79 58 84 / 40 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 66 80 66 81 / 40 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Tuesday
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Tuesday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Cromagnum
Posts: 1064
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Re: September 2020:

Post by Cromagnum » Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:23 am

Wow. Basically zero rain with this front.

Cpv17
Posts: 1453
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: September 2020:

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:44 am

Cromagnum wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:23 am
Wow. Basically zero rain with this front.
Just a light mist is all I’m experiencing.

User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1044
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Re: September 2020:

Post by djmike » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:53 am

Got pounded with rain here in Beaumont with the front. Picked up another 1”. We needed it though. Now, 67 degrees. Nice. 55 for our low tonight. Even better.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College St. area)

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 2387
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: September 2020:

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:04 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:44 am
Cromagnum wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:23 am
Wow. Basically zero rain with this front.
Just a light mist is all I’m experiencing.
We got about 0.1 inch about 4 am. 20-25 N wind with gusts to 30-25 mph. More wind than Beta or Sally.

Continued advection of dry air. Dewpoint of 49°F - we finally crack the 50°F dewpoint...down from 73°F DP yesterday.

Cromagnum
Posts: 1064
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Re: September 2020:

Post by Cromagnum » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:06 pm

Feels much better already. Looking forward to cracking south of 60 degrees tonight.

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2948
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: September 2020:

Post by tireman4 » Mon Sep 28, 2020 2:16 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281918
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
218 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

.SHORT TERM [Rest of Today through Tuesday Afternoon]...

The cold front that moved through SE Texas this morning is now over
the Gulf waters. In the wake of the front winds turned northerly and
increased to 15-20 MPH with gusts of up to 30 MPH on occasion. A
Wind Advisory is in effect for most of SE Texas through early
tonight, continuing along the inner coastal regions and Barrier
Islands through Tuesday morning. Cooler and drier air mass has
filtered into the northern third of the CWA and is expected to
continue to expand southward and across the rest of the CWA during
the rest of the afternoon and evening hours lifting and clearing
skies as it does so. This air mass has also cooled temperatures
today, with highs expected to only reach the mid to upper 70s.

Tonight, mostly clear skies are expected with low temperatures
dropping into the 50s! It will definitely be a cool and crisp
Tuesday morning, maybe even a bit chilly in some locations thanks to
the moderate to strong gusty winds. For the rest of the day Tuesday,
sunny skies are on tap along with gradually subsiding northerly
winds and temperatures only reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.
Sounds like a delightful late September day for SE Texas...enjoy.
24

&&

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...

Cool nights (lows mainly in the 50s/60s with mostly clear to clear skies
and no rain) and warm days (highs mainly in the 80s with mostly sunny
to sunny skies and no rain) can be expected. There will be just a subtle
warming trend Wednesday through Thursday before the next cold front
(much weaker compared to this morning`s boundary) moves through the
area Thursday night through Friday morning. High pressure behind this
front that is centered well to our north will move off to the east at
the end of the week and over the weekend, and this will allow for a
weak onshore flow to come back to the area. Another weak front looks
to possibly enter the area Sunday night or Monday morning. 42

&&

.MARINE...

Strong northerly winds, with gusts possibly close to gale force, can
be expected tonight in the wake of this morning`s cold front. Winds
and seas should begin subsiding late Tuesday into midweek. A reinforcing
but much weaker cold front is forecast to move into the waters late
Thursday night or Friday morning. Onshore flow (weak to occasionally
moderate) returns to the area over the weekend as surface high pressure
behind the second front quickly moves off to the east. Another weak
front could sag into the area from the north in a Sunday night-Monday
morning time period. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020/

AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

Cold front is now moving over the coastal waters and cooler and
drier air is expected to continue to filter in behind it. MVFR
cigs will slowly lift and clear this afternoon and evening, with
mostly clear skies expected tonight into Tuesday. Northerly winds
will remain at 10-20 KTS with gusts of 25-30 KTS across SE Texas
today, slightly subsiding late tonight. A Wind Advisory will
continue in effect through 9 PM CDT today for inland areas and
through 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the inner coastal regions and Barrier
Islands. Fair weather conditions expected Tuesday, but moderate
to strong gusty N winds will prevail through most of the day. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 53 80 53 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 57 80 56 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 66 79 66 81 69 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the following zones:
Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Matagorda Islands.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Fort Bend...
Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...
Montgomery...Southern Liberty...Walker...Waller...
Washington...Wharton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Cromagnum
Posts: 1064
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Re: September 2020:

Post by Cromagnum » Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:50 pm

Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s with low humidity? Sign me up for this all year.

tropiKal
Posts: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:46 pm
Contact:

Re: September 2020:

Post by tropiKal » Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:06 pm

TXWeatherMan wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:33 pm
I really hope we don’t have a warm winter. You have that 8 months out of the year so I’m sure you can handle 3-4 months of “cold” weather.
Don't get me wrong, I enjoy cooler winter temps myself - let's say, highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s/upper 40s. But anything below that doesn't seem to be of any use, sorry to say.
Ptarmigan wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:56 pm
Winter is suppose to be cold. 8-)
...up north where it belongs 8-)

User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 3172
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Re: September 2020:

Post by jasons2k » Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:09 pm

tropiKal wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:06 pm
TXWeatherMan wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:33 pm
I really hope we don’t have a warm winter. You have that 8 months out of the year so I’m sure you can handle 3-4 months of “cold” weather.
Don't get me wrong, I enjoy cooler winter temps myself - let's say, highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s/upper 40s. But anything below that doesn't seem to be of any use, sorry to say.
Ptarmigan wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:56 pm
Winter is suppose to be cold. 8-)
...up north where it belongs 8-)
I’m with you 100%...anything below that is pointless unless it’s snowing, and If I wanted that, I’d move to Denver. I say it every year, but there is nothing I can do to control the weather...except retire back in Florida some day.

Post Reply