September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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Re: September 2020:

Post by tireman4 » Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:42 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 260910
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
410 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Monday Night]...

With the return of onshore winds and a slight increase in low-level
moisture to SE TX, we`ll start the day with patchy fog across parts
(mainly northern) of the region this morning. These lower decks are
expected to mix out by mid/late morning. We could see another round
of patchy fog tonight as conditions remain similar. Warming temper-
atures are on tap for the weekend as weak high pressure lingers out
east and the S/SE winds persist. Highs are progged to be in the mid
to upper 80s today...upper 80s to around 90 for tomorrow.

Rain chances will remain limited to nil through tomorrow afternoon,
but cannot rule out some isolated WAA-type SHRA late Sun night into
early Mon with the arrival of a speed max and a tightening gradient
across the coastal counties/near waters. All this appears to be the
set-up out ahead of the strong cold front that is still forecast to
move through SE TX on Mon. POPs will be highest during the day Mon,
mainly just ahead of and along the front itself. Currently estimat-
ing rainfall totals averaging around 1/2 inch or less as this front
should be moving steadily to the coast. Rain chances should be end-
ing from the north to south through the afternoon as the line moves
further offshore. Much cooler/drier weather expected across the CWA
in the wake of the front. Yay fall! 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Friday]...

With an upper ridge situated to our west and a trof to our east, a
dry nwly flow aloft should prevail through the week. Surface high
pressure behind Monday`s front will eventually move off to the east
late Wed, but atmos won`t have much time to modify before another
reinforcing (moisture starved) frontal boundary moves in late Thurs
into Fri. Overall, it looks like a dry period accompanied by some
really comfortable temps. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore winds should prevail through the weekend, perhaps with
speeds approaching caution levels for a time Sunday evening. Expect
a strong cold front to push off the coast Monday afternoon with
moderate to strong offshore winds in its wake. Small craft
advisories will be required, and winds may gust to near gale force
at times Monday night considering the tightening gradient and the
cool airmass moving over 78-83F waters. Winds/seas gradually subside
later Tue into midweek as high pressure builds into the area. Light
onshore winds may briefly resume Thurs, but am expecting a
reinforcing front moving into the waters Thurs night into Fri. 47

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Areas of patchy fog will be possible this morning (mainly for inland
northern locations) given the light winds/clear skies/wet ground and
slowly increasing low-level moisture. These lower VIS/CIGS are prog-
ged to mix out by mid morning with VFR conditions prevailing through
this afternoon. Another round of patchy fog/low clouds will be poss-
ible tonight/early Sun as the pattern remains fairly similar. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 69 89 70 77 / 0 10 10 20 40
Houston (IAH) 87 71 89 75 84 / 0 10 10 0 50
Galveston (GLS) 84 76 87 78 86 / 10 10 10 10 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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Re: September 2020:

Post by snowman65 » Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:43 am

Glad to see there are no storms in the GOM...but....
Attachments
FB_IMG_1601137547266.jpg

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tireman4
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Re: September 2020:

Post by tireman4 » Sat Sep 26, 2020 3:40 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 262002
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
302 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

.SHORT TERM [Rest of Today through Sunday Afternoon]...

A rather benign weather pattern will continue across SE Texas
through the short term period. For the rest of the day today, expect
partly to variably cloudy skies with southerly winds at 5 to 10 MPH.
Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday, peaking in the mid to upper 80s areawide. Skies are
expected to clear out in the evening, however, cloudiness is
expected to return during the overnight and early Sunday morning
hours. Areas of patchy fog are expected to develop once again
overnight into early Sunday morning across portions of SE Texas.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s along areas north
of I-10 and in the low to mid 70s along areas south of I-10. Winds
will be increasing Sunday morning, which could help lift and scatter
out the fog quicker than today, or may even not allow the fog to
develop at all for a few locations. If fog does develop tonight,
expect it to lift and clear out by mid morning. With a more
pronounced southerly wind flow, we may have isolated showers moving
across the local waters from the Gulf Sunday morning and may reach
the coastal locations from time to time. However, confidence of this
occurring is low and thus kept PoPs at 10% for the waters and
coastal locations. High temperatures Sunday afternoon will increase
into the upper 80s and low 90s. An increase in low level moisture
will also increase dewpoints into the low 70s Sunday afternoon. 24

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]...

Late Sunday night through early Monday morning, look for increasing
chances of northern county showers and possible thunderstorms, probably
beginning shortly before sunrise as a strong cold front enters the area
from the north. This front will sweep through Southeast Texas and could
very well be off the coast by around or shortly after noon. With the
fast movement of the front, still anticipating rainfall amounts to average
1/2 inch or less. With winds shifting to the north behind the front
(becoming breezy inland and breezy/windy at the coast), look for a
decreasing trend in temperatures during the afternoon. Cool nights
and mild days (lows mainly in the 50s inland and in the 60s at the
beaches and highs in the 70s/80s) along with low humidities and no
rain can be expected for the remainder of the week as a western U.S.
ridge and an eastern U.S. trof become established in the mid/upper
levels. This pattern will allow for a Thursday-Friday reinforcing
(but much weaker) cold front to move through the area. Currently, this
pattern looks to hold into the weekend and on into the start of next
week. Some gradual warming can be expected as winds come back around
to the south and southeast, but moisture levels look to be too low
for any rain development. 42

&&

.MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will continue through
Sunday night. A strong cold front will move into and through the
coastal waters late Monday morning through Monday afternoon. Winds
will shift to the north behind the front and strengthen, and small
craft advisories will be needed for the development of the strong
winds and rough bay waters/seas. Wind gusts could possibly increase
to near gale force Monday night. Decreasing winds and seas can be
expected late Tuesday into midweek as high pressure builds into
the area and the gradient weakens. A reinforcing and much weaker
front is still anticipated to move into the waters Thursday or
Friday. The offshore flow behind this front will quickly swing
back around to onshore over the weekend.
42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020/

AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions currently at all TAF sites except CXO, which is
expected to lift within the next hour or so. S winds today will
be at 5 to 10 KTS decreasing to 5 KTS or less tonight. MVFR to
IFR conditions are expected to return overnight through early
Sunday morning along with areas of patchy fog developing across
portions of SE Texas. Winds will increase Sunday morning to around
10 KTS. A few isolated showers could move across the Gulf waters
and into some coastal sections early Sunday morning, however,
confidence at this time is low, and thus kept any mention of SHRA
out of this TAF package. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 89 67 77 54 / 0 0 10 40 10
Houston (IAH) 71 90 73 82 59 / 0 0 0 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 77 86 78 86 66 / 10 10 0 50 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

tropiKal
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Re: September 2020:

Post by tropiKal » Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:18 pm

Very wonderful rain this past week! Summer (Jun - Sept) was decent, not including the early July and late August dry breaks.

Hoping for a very warm and dry fall and winter. La Nina in place will thankfully ensure that.

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Re: September 2020:

Post by davidiowx » Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:37 pm

tropiKal wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:18 pm
Very wonderful rain this past week! Summer (Jun - Sept) was decent, not including the early July and late August dry breaks.

Hoping for a very warm and dry fall and winter. La Nina in place will thankfully ensure that.
No thanks. I’ll take cold and some winter precip. By the way, La Niña doesn’t ensure warm and dry weather every time. The last time was 17-18 winter and it snowed at my house..

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Re: September 2020:

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:40 pm

snowman65 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:43 am
Glad to see there are no storms in the GOM...but....
2020, so yeah. :lol:

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Re: September 2020:

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:41 pm

davidiowx wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:37 pm
tropiKal wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:18 pm
Very wonderful rain this past week! Summer (Jun - Sept) was decent, not including the early July and late August dry breaks.

Hoping for a very warm and dry fall and winter. La Nina in place will thankfully ensure that.
No thanks. I’ll take cold and some winter precip. By the way, La Niña doesn’t ensure warm and dry weather every time. The last time was 17-18 winter and it snowed at my house..
DFTT

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tireman4
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Re: September 2020:

Post by tireman4 » Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:44 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 262331
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Main issue this package will be the same issue we have been
dealing with the past few nights, which is patchy fog and MVFR
CIGS developing by midnight and lasting through the early morning.
The one difference tonight is that the southerly winds may stay
elevated overnight tonight. These higher winds could limit the
development of the fog, but guidance continues to show patchy fog
developing along and north of I-45. If any fog does develop
overnight, it will dissipate shortly after sunrise. The southerly
flow will be strengthening tomorrow with sustained winds of 10 to
15 mph through the afternoon with isolated wind gusts up to 20
mph. Don`t mention any gusts yet in the TAFs because of the
isolated nature of it, but it may get added in in later packages.
No showers or thunderstorms are expecting through the period.

Fowler

&&

tropiKal
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Re: September 2020:

Post by tropiKal » Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:09 am

davidiowx wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:37 pm
No thanks. I’ll take cold and some winter precip. By the way, La Niña doesn’t ensure warm and dry weather every time. The last time was 17-18 winter and it snowed at my house..
The 17-18 season definitely wasn't a proper one, it still had substantial El Nino influences (i.e. SOI crashes with active sJet).

In any rate, cold and snow are detrimental to landscapes, sorry to say. Warm and dry in winter is objectively superior.

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tireman4
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Re: September 2020:

Post by tireman4 » Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:42 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 270913
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
413 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tuesday Night]...

Some patchy fog possible across northern portions of the CWFA this
morning, but given the slightly increased onshore winds just above
the surface, it`ll likely be more low clouds. These southerly flow
could also produce some very isolated showers along the coast this
morning. Otherwise, all of this is expected to mix out by mid/late
morning with another warm afternoon on tap. Highs should be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

Rain chances will begin to creep up over our northern counties late
tonight as the cold front begins its push into SE TX. While some of
the latest guidance is indicating a slightly faster motion, not too
confident with this at this time. Will keep with the previous fore-
casts with this line moving into the area overnight and likely into
our marine waters late tomorrow/Mon afternoon. The bulk of the POPs
will be just ahead of/along the front itself. Still not expecting a
lot in terms of rainfall as this line will be moving steadily. Much
cooler/drier weather on tap in the wake of the front...with lows in
the 50s Mon night! 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...

Dry nw flow aloft should maintain pleasant wx across the area.
Surface high pressure will move off to the east around Thursday, but
weak onshore flow won`t time to modify the airmass before another,
albeit weaker, frontal boundary backdoors into the area late Thur
night and Fri. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Going to hoist the caution flags for a brief time period early this
morning as obs indicate 15-20kt winds offshore. These should
diminish a touch heading into the afternoon, but will probably creep
back up again for a while this evening and tonight. Other than
speeding up the frontal passage into the mid morning into early
afternoon hours on Monday, the fcst remains mostly unchanged. Small
craft advisories will be required in the wake of the front and gusts
to around gale force still look to be in play later in the day and
Monday night. Winds/seas gradually subside later Tue into midweek as
high pressure builds into the area. Light onshore winds may briefly
resume Thurs, but am expecting a weaker reinforcing front to
backdoor into the waters late Thurs night into Fri causing winds.
to back around to the northeast. 47

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Per the slightly elevated onshore winds at/just above the surface...
will be expecting more lower CIGS vs VIS for the rest of the morning.
Otherwise, VFR for this afternoon. Will be introducing the cold front
(wind shift) into the TAFs with this package...starting at CLL around
08-10Z and IAH from 12-14Z (but subject to to some last minute tweaks
before issuance). Gusty north winds progged in the wake of this front
during the day, decreasing a bit by evening (except along the coast).
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 65 76 55 79 / 10 30 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 90 74 82 60 80 / 10 10 50 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 85 66 80 / 10 10 40 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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