September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 280811
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
311 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday Night]...

Per the latest obs/radar, the cold front very close to the northern
borders of SE TX at this time. Not seeing much by way of precipita-
tion along western end of the line as it tracks S/SE, with the bulk
of the development to our NE/E. Near term guidance has been hinting
that we`ll likely see a line of showers with isolated thunderstorms
form as this boundary moves across the area through the morning and
early afternoon hours. And so far...seeing nothing to disagree with
this nor the slightly faster forward speed (compared to yesterday`s
runs). As such, the front is expected to be at the coast by noon...
but the much cooler/drier air will be lagging by a few hours. Highs
today will probably be this morning as temperatures slowly fall (or
hold steady) through the afternoon given the strong/gusty northerly
winds. Will also be considering a Wind Advisory for the western and
coastal portions of the CWA for this afternoon.

Otherwise, lows tonight will range from the lower to mid 50s across
the northern half of the area, and in the mid and upper 50s for the
southern. This cool/dry weather will prevail through tomorrow night
but the slow movement of the surface high to the east and the subs-
equent return of light SW/S low-level winds could help warm temper-
atures into the lower and mid 80s by Weds afternoon. 41


&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...

Dry nw flow aloft should maintain pleasant wx across the area.
Surface high pressure will move to the east around Thursday, but
weak onshore winds won`t time to modify the airmass before another,
albeit much weaker, frontal boundary backdoors into the area late
Thur night and Fri. Anticipate a gradual warming/moistening trend to
begin this weekend into early next week as southeast winds resume. 47

&&

.MARINE...

Cold front will push off the coast by mid morning with 20-30kt
northerly winds in its wake. Gusts to gale are possible into the
overnight hours. Small Craft Advisories are already out. Seas around
3 feet early this morning will build into the 6-10ft range well
offshore by tonight. Marine conditions slowly improve later Tue into
midweek as high pressure builds into the area and winds/seas
subside. Light onshore winds may briefly resume Thurs, but am
expecting a weaker reinforcing front to backdoor into the waters
late Thurs night into Fri causing winds to back around to the
northeast. Onshore flow resumes this weekend as surface high
pressure moves off to the east. 47


&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

This next TAF package should start off busy/messy with the passage
of the cold front...but we should see CIGS/precipitation lift from
the north to south from 12-18Z. Thereafter the main issue looks to
be the gusty north winds through the afternoon. These winds should
decrease this evening across the CWA except the coastal sites (GLS
and possibly LBX). 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 53 79 54 84 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 79 59 79 58 84 / 40 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 66 80 66 81 / 40 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Tuesday
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Tuesday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
Cromagnum
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Wow. Basically zero rain with this front.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:23 am Wow. Basically zero rain with this front.
Just a light mist is all I’m experiencing.
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djmike
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Got pounded with rain here in Beaumont with the front. Picked up another 1”. We needed it though. Now, 67 degrees. Nice. 55 for our low tonight. Even better.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:44 am
Cromagnum wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:23 am Wow. Basically zero rain with this front.
Just a light mist is all I’m experiencing.
We got about 0.1 inch about 4 am. 20-25 N wind with gusts to 30-25 mph. More wind than Beta or Sally.

Continued advection of dry air. Dewpoint of 49°F - we finally crack the 50°F dewpoint...down from 73°F DP yesterday.
Cromagnum
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Feels much better already. Looking forward to cracking south of 60 degrees tonight.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281918
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
218 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

.SHORT TERM [Rest of Today through Tuesday Afternoon]...

The cold front that moved through SE Texas this morning is now over
the Gulf waters. In the wake of the front winds turned northerly and
increased to 15-20 MPH with gusts of up to 30 MPH on occasion. A
Wind Advisory is in effect for most of SE Texas through early
tonight, continuing along the inner coastal regions and Barrier
Islands through Tuesday morning. Cooler and drier air mass has
filtered into the northern third of the CWA and is expected to
continue to expand southward and across the rest of the CWA during
the rest of the afternoon and evening hours lifting and clearing
skies as it does so. This air mass has also cooled temperatures
today, with highs expected to only reach the mid to upper 70s.

Tonight, mostly clear skies are expected with low temperatures
dropping into the 50s! It will definitely be a cool and crisp
Tuesday morning, maybe even a bit chilly in some locations thanks to
the moderate to strong gusty winds. For the rest of the day Tuesday,
sunny skies are on tap along with gradually subsiding northerly
winds and temperatures only reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.
Sounds like a delightful late September day for SE Texas...enjoy.
24

&&

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...

Cool nights (lows mainly in the 50s/60s with mostly clear to clear skies
and no rain) and warm days (highs mainly in the 80s with mostly sunny
to sunny skies and no rain) can be expected. There will be just a subtle
warming trend Wednesday through Thursday before the next cold front
(much weaker compared to this morning`s boundary) moves through the
area Thursday night through Friday morning. High pressure behind this
front that is centered well to our north will move off to the east at
the end of the week and over the weekend, and this will allow for a
weak onshore flow to come back to the area. Another weak front looks
to possibly enter the area Sunday night or Monday morning. 42

&&

.MARINE...

Strong northerly winds, with gusts possibly close to gale force, can
be expected tonight in the wake of this morning`s cold front. Winds
and seas should begin subsiding late Tuesday into midweek. A reinforcing
but much weaker cold front is forecast to move into the waters late
Thursday night or Friday morning. Onshore flow (weak to occasionally
moderate) returns to the area over the weekend as surface high pressure
behind the second front quickly moves off to the east. Another weak
front could sag into the area from the north in a Sunday night-Monday
morning time period. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020/

AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

Cold front is now moving over the coastal waters and cooler and
drier air is expected to continue to filter in behind it. MVFR
cigs will slowly lift and clear this afternoon and evening, with
mostly clear skies expected tonight into Tuesday. Northerly winds
will remain at 10-20 KTS with gusts of 25-30 KTS across SE Texas
today, slightly subsiding late tonight. A Wind Advisory will
continue in effect through 9 PM CDT today for inland areas and
through 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the inner coastal regions and Barrier
Islands. Fair weather conditions expected Tuesday, but moderate
to strong gusty N winds will prevail through most of the day. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 53 80 53 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 57 80 56 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 66 79 66 81 69 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the following zones:
Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Matagorda Islands.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Fort Bend...
Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...
Montgomery...Southern Liberty...Walker...Waller...
Washington...Wharton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
Cromagnum
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Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s with low humidity? Sign me up for this all year.
tropiKal
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TXWeatherMan wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:33 pmI really hope we don’t have a warm winter. You have that 8 months out of the year so I’m sure you can handle 3-4 months of “cold” weather.
Don't get me wrong, I enjoy cooler winter temps myself - let's say, highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s/upper 40s. But anything below that doesn't seem to be of any use, sorry to say.
Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:56 pmWinter is suppose to be cold. 8-)
...up north where it belongs 8-)
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jasons2k
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tropiKal wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:06 pm
TXWeatherMan wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:33 pmI really hope we don’t have a warm winter. You have that 8 months out of the year so I’m sure you can handle 3-4 months of “cold” weather.
Don't get me wrong, I enjoy cooler winter temps myself - let's say, highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s/upper 40s. But anything below that doesn't seem to be of any use, sorry to say.
Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:56 pmWinter is suppose to be cold. 8-)
...up north where it belongs 8-)
I’m with you 100%...anything below that is pointless unless it’s snowing, and If I wanted that, I’d move to Denver. I say it every year, but there is nothing I can do to control the weather...except retire back in Florida some day.
TXWeatherMan
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Perfect winter weather for me is highs in the 50’s and sunny with lows in the upper 30’s.
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DoctorMu
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I had no complaints until maybe next May as long as severe season cooperates. Keep the sprinklers off and A/C off or running sparingly until then.

Gas heat if needed is cheap.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 291020
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020


.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...

Very pleasant fall weather ahead.

High pressure stretches from West Texas into Central Texas this
morning will be settling south throughout the day with deep north
and northwesterly subsident flow aloft which will keep skies clear
and sunny. Winds will increase this morning becoming a little
gusty (less than yesterday) in the 10-20 knot range. After a cool
start expect a quick warm up to take place reaching up into the
78-82 degree range today...dipping down into the 50-55 degree
range followed by high temperatures climbing into the 80-86 degree
range Wednesday and 82-88 Thursday. The coolest morning of the
stretch should be Wednesday morning then a slow warm up gets
underway as well as high pressure drifts east along the coast and
into coastal waters of LA Wednesday night. A s/w moving
southeastward through the area should bring some increase in high
cloudiness but still at least partly cloudy possibly mostly sunny.
Light southeasterly flow will become established in the afternoon
then Thursday back around to the east in advance of the next
northwest flow aloft event and cold front going into early Friday.
45

&&
.LONG TERM [[Friday through Tuesday]...

No major issues expected for the long term as the upper pattern re-
mains dominated by strong ridging out west. This prevailing NW flow
aloft will help to drag a reinforcing shot of cool/dry air into the
area late Thur/early Fri with a second front possible by the latter
part of the weekend or early next week. There shouldn`t be a lot of
time for a return flow to set up...so low-level moisture will remain
rather limited with each of these fronts. And as such, rain chances
will also remain kinda nil for this time frame. Temperatures should
be in the lower to mid 80s Fri/Sat, then warming into the mid/upper
80s Sun/Mon before cooling once again on Tue. Looking further ahead,
significant rain chances might not return to SE TX until maybe late
in the week next week if these latest extended model runs do verify.
41

&&

.MARINE...

The strong/gusty northerly winds in the wake of the cold front have
decreased over the bays overnight but are continuing over the near/
offshore waters this morning. The Small Craft Advisory will remain
in place for the Gulf waters through early this afternoon with con-
ditions gradually improving during the afternoon(and early evening)
as high pressure finally builds into the region. Light onshore flow
could resume by late tomorrow into Thurs as the high shifts east. A
weak reinforcing cold front should bring light/moderate NE winds by
Fri. Coastal winds will undergo another shift to the E then SE thru
the weekend. 41

&&


&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR. Northerly winds 5-10 knots with gusts becoming light and
variable after sunset.
45

&&





.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 80 52 85 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 56 84 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 68 80 71 82 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM/FIRE/AVIATION...45
LONG TERM/MARINE...41
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 291715
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. N winds at around
10 KTS with gusts up to around 20 KTS on occasion today will
decrease to around 5 KTS tonight. Winds will turn west to
southwest Wednesday with sunny skies prevailing. 24

&&
tropiKal
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jasons2k wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:09 pm I’m with you 100%...anything below that is pointless unless it’s snowing, and If I wanted that, I’d move to Denver. I say it every year, but there is nothing I can do to control the weather...except retire back in Florida some day.
...Or wait for climate change to really kick in.
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DoctorMu
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Low last night of 53°F. Dewpoint of 37°F right now. Loving it.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 300934
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
434 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020


.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...
Spectacular early fall weather will continue with dry conditions
and sunny afternoons/clear nights. High pressure centered near
Austin at 08z should slowly drift east today into SETX and tonight
will be over the Upper TX coastal waters and LA coast. Dry NW
flow aloft tonight will drag a weak s/w southeast and a dry
Canadian cold front dips down into SETX late Thursday turning
winds north and northeast. The front should push off the coast by
late Thursday evening. Ridging remains in control through Friday
night yielding more cool and dry weather.
45

&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
With onshore winds progged to be in place, Sat should be a slightly
warmer day. Global models not in great agreement with the next cold
front`s timing but in favoring the ECMWF/Canadian solutions will be
going with FROPA on Sun. Still not expecting much by way of precip-
itation with its passage as low-level moisture remains very limited
for this timeframe. This reinforcing shot of cool/dry air should be
holding into the start of next week with temperatures slowly moder-
ating by mid week. The overall upper pattern for the long-term part
of this forecast looks to stay dominated by strong ridging out west
and a prevailing NW flow aloft across the state. Models appear to be
flattening this amplified pattern around the middle of next week, so
still not expecting any significant rain chances for SE TX until may
be late in the week next week. 41&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR. L/V winds as high pressure moves through the
region...initially calm becoming southwest then variable this
afternoon/evening...and back to calm.
45

&&

.MARINE...

Light W/SW winds today will become more southerly tonight as surface
high pressure moves east with time. A reinforcing cold front remains
on track to push into our coastal waters tomorrow/Thur...with only a
slight uptick in speeds as winds shift to the N/NE. SCEC flags might
be needed for our offshore waters briefly Thurs night into early Fri
morning. As surface high pressure moves rapidly across the area, on-
shore winds are set to return Sat and into most of Sun. Another cold
front is forecast to move into the coastal waters by late Sun after-
noon/early evening...with moderate/strong NE winds developing in its
wake. SCEC/SCA flags are possible Sun night into Mon. 41

&&


.TROPICAL...
Tropical wave over the Caribbean should track west and has some
potential for development near the Yucatan Friday into Saturday.
NHC currently progging it at 60 percent. This feature should
interact with the potent cold front draped across FL to Cozumel
with dry high pressure extending well out across the Gulf.
GFS/ECMWF vary in the level of organization and track but suffice
it to say this looks like it would remain near the Yucatan/Bay of
Campeche through at least midweek. A second wave may track into
the same region by late week.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 84 56 86 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 62 87 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 73 82 72 78 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/TROPICAL...45
LONG TERM/MARINE...41
redneckweather
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48 degrees this morning here just south of Lake Conroe. Glorious weather today.
BlueJay
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After Laura and Beta, September ends with Chamber of Commerce weather.

On to October 2020...
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tireman4
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456
FXUS64 KHGX 301725
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1225 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020


.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light west to
southwest winds will prevail this afternoon, then turning calm
through the night and Thursday morning. 05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...
Spectacular early fall weather will continue with dry conditions
and sunny afternoons/clear nights. High pressure centered near
Austin at 08z should slowly drift east today into SETX and tonight
will be over the Upper TX coastal waters and LA coast. Dry NW
flow aloft tonight will drag a weak s/w southeast and a dry
Canadian cold front dips down into SETX late Thursday turning
winds north and northeast. The front should push off the coast by
late Thursday evening. Ridging remains in control through Friday
night yielding more cool and dry weather.
45

LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
With onshore winds progged to be in place, Sat should be a slightly
warmer day. Global models not in great agreement with the next cold
front`s timing but in favoring the ECMWF/Canadian solutions will be
going with FROPA on Sun. Still not expecting much by way of precip-
itation with its passage as low-level moisture remains very limited
for this timeframe. This reinforcing shot of cool/dry air should be
holding into the start of next week with temperatures slowly moder-
ating by mid week. The overall upper pattern for the long-term part
of this forecast looks to stay dominated by strong ridging out west
and a prevailing NW flow aloft across the state. Models appear to be
flattening this amplified pattern around the middle of next week, so
still not expecting any significant rain chances for SE TX until may
be late in the week next week. 41&&


MARINE...

Light W/SW winds today will become more southerly tonight as surface
high pressure moves east with time. A reinforcing cold front remains
on track to push into our coastal waters tomorrow/Thur...with only a
slight uptick in speeds as winds shift to the N/NE. SCEC flags might
be needed for our offshore waters briefly Thurs night into early Fri
morning. As surface high pressure moves rapidly across the area, on-
shore winds are set to return Sat and into most of Sun. Another cold
front is forecast to move into the coastal waters by late Sun after-
noon/early evening...with moderate/strong NE winds developing in its
wake. SCEC/SCA flags are possible Sun night into Mon. 41

TROPICAL...
Tropical wave over the Caribbean should track west and has some
potential for development near the Yucatan Friday into Saturday.
NHC currently progging it at 60 percent. This feature should
interact with the potent cold front draped across FL to Cozumel
with dry high pressure extending well out across the Gulf.
GFS/ECMWF vary in the level of organization and track but suffice
it to say this looks like it would remain near the Yucatan/Bay of
Campeche through at least midweek. A second wave may track into
the same region by late week.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 56 86 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 84 62 87 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 73 82 72 78 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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