September 2020:

[Stormlover2020]

Ridge is stronger and beta is slower

[TXWeatherMan]

Ridge is stronger and beta is slower

Maybe about to start the turn West?

[Cpv17]

I said that it was a Harvey track on the Euro but it really doesn’t have much rain with it according to the 0z Euro. Precip totals are nothing close to what I thought they’d be. I don’t trust that. Seems really weird.

[DoctorMu]

Models are having Beta stall similar to Harvey.

[DoctorMu]

The 0z Euro is literally a Harvey track. I’m not even kidding. Insane!!

GFS and GFS- PARA are no better news.

Ensembles are deja vu all over again.

[davidiowx]

I’d say Beta needs to start making that turn soon or its going to be NE of the track again. When is the next Recon? Tropical tidbits isn’t showing anything about it.

Edit: Recon is on its way.

[tireman4]

Interesting days ahead. Plesse stay weather aware

[davidiowx]

Yes indeed tireman4. Beta is a sheared mess right now but shear looks to be dropping but dry air may be an issue per WV

[Texaspirate11]

Im rooting for dry air

[Katdaddy]

Cool dry air, CA smoke, and Beta being slammed off the NE away from the Upper TX Coast this morning toward FL with no effects................yeah wishful thinking but this story is ongoing with several chapters today. We must remain tropical weather aware and hopefully Air Force Recon will have some good new later today.

[davidiowx]

The 06z GFS is nothing short of interesting..

[Kingwood36]

So its not going to turn and head toward Texas now?

[davidiowx]

So its not going to turn and head toward Texas now?

Where did you get that idea? The latest update from the NHC at 7am still has it turning west and hanging along the coast through Wednesday..

[Kingwood36]

So its not going to turn and head toward Texas now?

Where did you get that idea? The latest update from the NHC at 7am still has it turning west and hanging along the coast through Wednesday..

I read something wrong my bad

[Scott747]

Shear is beginning to drop and storms are building around the coc. Recon found the center almost exactly were forecasted and it should begin turning soon.

[davidiowx]

So its not going to turn and head toward Texas now?

Where did you get that idea? The latest update from the NHC at 7am still has it turning west and hanging along the coast through Wednesday..

I read something wrong my bad

No worries!

[Cpv17]

The 06z GFS is nothing short of interesting..

It still doesn’t really have much rain for most of SETX other than the coastal counties.

[davidiowx]

Shear is beginning to drop and storms are building around the coc. Recon found the center almost exactly were forecasted and it should begin turning soon.

Naked swirl right now but I agree, as the first vis images come in, looks like it’s ready to pop over the CoC. Going to be interesting days ahead

[davidiowx]

The 06z GFS is nothing short of interesting..

It still doesn’t really have much rain for most of SETX other than the coastal counties.

Which is odd considering the storms loops around Houston then goes NE a bit just to turn back around over Houston again.. but the last frame you can see trouble in approaching from the Yucatan.. yes yes, it’s way far out into October so it’s just for entertainment

[Scott747]

Shear is beginning to drop and storms are building around the coc. Recon found the center almost exactly were forecasted and it should begin turning soon.

Naked swirl right now but I agree, as the first vis images come in, looks like it’s ready to pop over the CoC. Going to be interesting days ahead

Yup. And this more northerly component is potentially bad news for the upper Texas coast depending on where it slows down and how stacked it is once beta nears the coast.